Holly Morgan

1109Joined Aug 2016

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Pre-mortem i.e. "Imagine I make this decision and end up regretting it. What went wrong?"

I think it's helpful to think about a few things you're grateful for in the community

Your forum contributions in recent months and this thread in particular πŸ™πŸ™πŸ™

As someone who's run dozens of EA events and several retreats (though not fellowships) just noting that this all strikes me as good advice.

I particularly want to highlight paying attention to getting enough people to achieve the vibe you want (which may well be >30 for fellowships) and sharing visit dates (huge deal but often overlooked).

I also really like the tone and structure of the post.

Thanks for sharing :-)

Beautiful 😌

Consequentialism and Cluelessness by Richard Y Chappell (27 karma)
Why it's good: Raises and defends an important point that I think would release a lot of people from cluelessness-induced paralysis if more widely shared, namely that Option A can still have higher expected value than Option B despite us having no clue what many of the consequences will be, because these invisible consequences speak neither for or against either option. (Another important point that I wish was better known is that Person-affecting intuitions can often be money pumped, although this post was essentially a repeat of a post from 2020.)

Space governance - problem profile by finm, 80000_Hours (65 karma)
Why it's good: A new entry to 80,000 Hours' most pressing world problems that is huge in scale, severely neglected from a longtermist perspective, although admittedly not especially tractable (which is why I'd love to see more posts like Influencing United Nations Space Governance).

Paper summary: The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism (Christian Tarsney) by Global Priorities Institute, EJT (37 karma)
Why it's good: An attempt to put numbers on the much-disputed tractability of longtermism (I also really appreciate summaries).

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