Pre-mortem i.e. "Imagine I make this decision and end up regretting it. What went wrong?"
I think it's helpful to think about a few things you're grateful for in the community
Your forum contributions in recent months and this thread in particular 🙏🙏🙏
As someone who's run dozens of EA events and several retreats (though not fellowships) just noting that this all strikes me as good advice.
I particularly want to highlight paying attention to getting enough people to achieve the vibe you want (which may well be >30 for fellowships) and sharing visit dates (huge deal but often overlooked).
I also really like the tone and structure of the post.
Thanks for sharing :-)
More on this here: Proposals for reform should come with detailed stories
EA-Aligned Political Activity in a US Congressional Primary: Concerns and Proposed Changes by Carolina_EA (78 karma)Why it's good: I am so, so appreciative when people share detailed, good-faith takes on parts of EA from perspectives that we rarely get such insight into. (Similar posts with at least the same karma, covering disagreement, agreement, praise, indifference, justification, advice: Podcast: The Left and Effective Altruism with Habiba Islam, A subjective account of what it's like to join an EA-aligned org without previous EA knowledge, Notes From a Pledger, Some unfun lessons I learned as a junior grantmaker, Some observations from an EA-adjacent (?) charitable effort.)
Some Carl Sagan quotations by finm (77 karma)Why it's good: I really appreciate inspiring posts. (Higher-karma posts on this topic that I really appreciated: Open call for EA stories, 🎨 Altruist Dreams - a collaborative art piece from EAG SF, Good things that happened in EA this year, The Spanish-Speaking Effective Altruism community is awesome.)
Consequentialism and Cluelessness by Richard Y Chappell (27 karma)Why it's good: Raises and defends an important point that I think would release a lot of people from cluelessness-induced paralysis if more widely shared, namely that Option A can still have higher expected value than Option B despite us having no clue what many of the consequences will be, because these invisible consequences speak neither for or against either option. (Another important point that I wish was better known is that Person-affecting intuitions can often be money pumped, although this post was essentially a repeat of a post from 2020.)
Space governance - problem profile by finm, 80000_Hours (65 karma)Why it's good: A new entry to 80,000 Hours' most pressing world problems that is huge in scale, severely neglected from a longtermist perspective, although admittedly not especially tractable (which is why I'd love to see more posts like Influencing United Nations Space Governance).
Paper summary: The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism (Christian Tarsney) by Global Priorities Institute, EJT (37 karma)Why it's good: An attempt to put numbers on the much-disputed tractability of longtermism (I also really appreciate summaries).