219 karmaJoined Feb 2022


Research Fellow at Open Philanthropy.

Previously at the Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research.


It’s also possible that something has changed recently that makes this a better practice now than it used to be — to use your example, maybe water access is better now than it was historically. Maybe beans weren’t prevalent in this region or a strain of beans that were worse for soaking were previously more common.

Quick question about reputation scores: "Every time a question resolves, the reputation is updated depending on how many Metaculus points a user got relative to other users (with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 10)" -- does this mean that predicting on questions late in the life of a question is harmful for one's reputation? Because predicting late means that you'll typically get fewer points than an early predictor. 

re: the edit at the top of the article, were the unresolved questions resolved? I'd be interested in seeing an updated version of this post! (either with just those questions or also including more questions from the past year and half) 

Great analysis, I really enjoyed reading this. I’m also excited to see how Metaculus and Manifold compare on the 2023 ACX predictions! I think that’ll be a great set of identical questions on both platforms that will avoid any selection effect issue of which platform the questions started on.

this might be due to a change on EA forum since you initially posted this post, but the left and right columns of the table of studies are quite unreadable for me on desktop, on both Chrome and Edge. see screenshot for what it looks like from my end. is there any other format I can read this post in?

I was commenting because I've been curious about it and it seemed like info that would often be present alongside whether or not there was a prison sentence at all, so it seems like it wouldn't have been much marginal work to collect it on your first pass (though obviously much more work now, unless you were going back through the list for some other reason). 

There do exist questions about how long people will be sentenced to prison around this (like this Metaculus one), but it also wasn't obvious to me that you were going for exclusively decision relevant info - how is jurisdiction of crimes decision relevant? 

Though maybe I should have just said interesting rather than useful. 

length of prison term (sentenced? served?) seems like a useful column in the spreadsheet. 

was the Cuban Missile crisis higher risk than actual nukes going off? actual nukes seem to me to be more salient. 

while I'd agree with the advice of "don't go if they don't provide any funding",  not providing quite enough funding to actually cover expenses seems more ambiguous? 

Metaculus performed decently well anticipating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, so I do think they can provide information about conflicts

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