178Joined Feb 2022


Research Fellow at Open Philanthropy.

Previously at the Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research.


I was commenting because I've been curious about it and it seemed like info that would often be present alongside whether or not there was a prison sentence at all, so it seems like it wouldn't have been much marginal work to collect it on your first pass (though obviously much more work now, unless you were going back through the list for some other reason). 

There do exist questions about how long people will be sentenced to prison around this (like this Metaculus one), but it also wasn't obvious to me that you were going for exclusively decision relevant info - how is jurisdiction of crimes decision relevant? 

Though maybe I should have just said interesting rather than useful. 

length of prison term (sentenced? served?) seems like a useful column in the spreadsheet. 

was the Cuban Missile crisis higher risk than actual nukes going off? actual nukes seem to me to be more salient. 

while I'd agree with the advice of "don't go if they don't provide any funding",  not providing quite enough funding to actually cover expenses seems more ambiguous? 

Metaculus performed decently well anticipating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, so I do think they can provide information about conflicts

if you're able to apply directly into PhD program, that might be worthwhile as they usually provide funding

This ( is an invite link to EA Corner, which I think is the current main EA discord server? 

this time, the WPP does show a population decline before the end of the century, though they still have a later and higher peak than Vollset et al. 

prior to the update, the UN projections were clearly worse than the Vollset ones, now that their projections are closer together, I'm less confident which one is likely closer to the truth. but lean towards Vollset still being better and the UN not having revised down enough yet. 

also, fun observation: two of the eight countries contributing most to growth in the next three decades already have shrinking birth cohort sizes, because even though cohorts are getting smaller than previous years, they're still much larger than the elderly population which has the highest mortality rates. (India and the Philippines, though note that there is a really wide discrepancy between Philippines estimates of births and WPP estimates of births, which is wider than what the birth registration gap is purported to be) 

I'm pretty sure Kelsey didn't drop out, though she did post about having a very hard time with finishing. 

drafting a post which uses this feature, and I'm a bit disappointed in terms of how much smaller the map is compared to using the downloaded figure from the OWiD. I think it would be better if the map were took up more of the available width. 

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