Stanford CS Master's Student
Thanks for this Rob--I was going to post this myself but you beat me to it :)Also, wow--I was systematically wrong. I think my (relative) x-risk optimism affected my predictions majorly.
SPOILER: My predictions for the mean answers from each org. The first number is for Q2, the second is for Q1 (EDIT: originally had the order of the questions wrong):OpenAI: 15%, 11%FHI: 11%, 7%DeepMind: 8%, 6%CHAI/Berkeley: 18%, 15%MIRI: 60%, 50%Open Philanthropy: 8%, 6%
I think it’s hard to automate things
Can you elaborate on why you think this?
Instead of "counterfactually" should we say "Shapily" now?