FYI Audenz is not egg-based - it's made in cells: https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/audenz-avian-influenza-vaccine
Thanks a lot for the response - can I just ask what WAW stands for? Google is only showing me writing about writing, which doesn't seem likely to be it...
And how often does RP decide to go ahead with publishing academia?
I'm not sure this meets the 'spends the money effectively' criterion - it might, but we don't really know that yet.
What kinds of research questions do you think are better answered in an organisation like RP vs. in academia, and vice versa?
One major factor that makes some research questions more suited to academia is requiring technical or logistical resources that would be hard to access or deploy in a generalist EA org like RP (some specialist expertise also sometimes falls into this category). Much WAW research is like this, in that I don't think it makes sense for RP to be trying to run large-scale ecological field studies.
Another major factor is if you want to promote wider field-building or you want the research to be persuasive as advocacy to certain audiences in the way that sometime...
Is there any particular reason why biosecurity isn't a major focus? As far as I can see from the list, no staff work on it, which surprises me a little.
The short answer is that a) none of our past hires in longtermism (including management) had substantive biosecurity experience or biosecurity interest and b) no major stakeholder has asked us to look into biosecurity issues.
The extended answer is pretty complicated. I will first go into why generalist EA orgs or generalist independent researchers may find it hard to go into biosecurity, explain why I think those reasons aren't as applicable to RP, and then why we haven't gone into biosecurity anyway.
Why generalist EA orgs or generalist independent r...
Thanks for posting this.
Just a quick note that it confused me a little to see the statement "And differences of 1030 are almost impossible" until I realised it is meant to be 10^30. It might be worth editing the post to make that clear.
Glad that you enjoyed it.
You are right on both counts. This is quite an easy overview of meta-research if you want a starting point: https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.2005468
I'd also be happy to have a look at anyone's ideas etc and have a decent idea (I think) of what TED-Ed might like. Just send me a message if I might be helpful.
Creating a new academic institute - the EA university - that houses a lot of EA research and (somehow) avoids the many issues seen in traditional academia.
Thanks a lot, this is useful context. I work in academia so the large lead times are relevant, particularly because other 'traditional' funders would require applications well in advance. It would be useful to know whether it was necessary to pursue those other funding routes as a 'career hedge' or not, for example, via a commitment to funding.
I am interested to hear if anyone from LTFF agrees/disagrees with Max's assessment in these circumstances.
Is it possible to apply for a grant when the date you would want the funds is quite far in advance (say, for example, one year)?
A couple of other new publication models that might be worth looking at are discussed here (Octopus and hypergraph, both of which are modular). Also this recent article about 'publomics' might have interesting ideas. Happy to talk about any of this if you are thinking about doing something in the space.
A system somewhat similar to what you are talking about exists. Pubpeer, for example, is a place where post-publication peer reviews of papers are posted publicly (https://pubpeer.com/static/about). I'm not sure at this stage how much it is used, but in principle it allows you to see criticism on any article.
Scite.ai is also relevant - it uses AI to try and say whether citations of an article are positive or negative. I don't know about its accuracy.
Neither of these address the problem of what happens if a study fails to replicate - often what ...
That view seems reasonable to me and I agree that a clearer analysis would be useful.
An additional and very minor point I missed out from my comment is that I'm sceptical that the relationship between impact factor and retraction (original paper here) is causal. It seems very likely to me that something like "number of views of articles" would be a confounder, and it is not adjusted for as far as I can tell. I'm not totally sure that is the part of the article that you were referring to when citing this, so apologies if not!
Thanks a lot for writing this post. I'm interested in these topics and was just thinking the other day that a write up of this sort would be valuable.
A relevant and fairly detailed write-up (not mine) of this problem area and how meta-research might help is available here: https://lets-fund.org/better-science/ (I didn't see it cited but may have missed it).
In terms of the content of the post, a couple of things that I might push back on a little:
Thanks a lot for sharing this. I need to update the post to add this and other research that has been pointed out to me.
Good find - thanks for sharing that paper which I hadn't included. If I update the post I'll add that.
I haven't thought much about this so can't add anything useful at the moment. If I think of / come across anything I'll reply again.
Good point. This is similar to what I was trying to get at when talking about lack of willingness to engage in probabilistic reasoning.
Thanks a lot for the comment. I was a bit nervous to put my first post up so some positive feedback is very much appreciated.
Thanks a lot for the comment. I do think that what your gesturing at makes sense: if I understand correctly you are saying that certain physical interventions can have more predictable effects that ‘biological’ ones because we have a decent idea of exactly how they work. In some cases this is definitely true: as an extreme example, we don’t need RCTs of aeroplane safety as we have a very good understanding of the physical processes and are able to model them well. If we have an airborne pathogen, it’s hardly necessary to run an RCT to see whether or not th...
Some quick thoughts (there is certainly already research on these but they seem important, and I don't know about reliability of existing research):
I like this perspective. I've never really understood why people find the repugnant conclusion repugnant!
Not really answering your question, but there is some recent work attempting to forecast clinical trial results that may be relevant: Can Oncologists Predict the Efficacy of Treatments in Randomized Trials? Kimmelman (the senior author) is doing other work on the topic too (e.g. here). I'm not aware of much published work in this space in a biomedical context.
My guess is that key decision makers in medicine (e.g. funders of trials), would not be very open to paying attention to forecasts (even if shown to be accurate to some degree), as there is a ve...
This may be less meta than you are hoping for, but may contain some useful advice/references: The dos and don’ts of influencing policy: a systematic review of advice to academics. Influencing policy is at least one way that academic ideas can travel to the wider world.
I expect another is producing accessible content on the topic in question (e.g. writing popular blog posts, books, documentaries). It seems like these can sometimes be a catalyst for ideas becoming more widely known in the public. Examples of books that might have had or could have a br...
As someone who did an undergraduate degree in biology, I think that as a computer scientist you probably already have many of the skills that you'd need to contribute to biology research directly. Welfare bio is a very new field so getting on top of the literature would likely not be too tricky, and most biologists would not have an in depth understanding of that particular sub-field anyway. There may be systematic reviews or modelling studies that you could contribute to, or you could look for existing datasets that could be reanalysed through a welfare b...
Thanks a lot for this response. I would probably donate through EA funds, so yes that should work. It seems like doing that with GiftAid will be a better bet than GAYE in my case then. The tip about HMRC is really useful to know - I have a friend who is giving regularly through GAYE and paying the 4% fee who is in a higher tax bracket, so I've recommended that he try this instead.
The Precipice by Toby Ord would be high up on my list. It is accessible and covers a lot of ground, illustrating a diversity of possible career paths and study areas that are relevant to existential risk.
The link above no longer works but is available here