I think you've revealed that my thinking was muddled in the earlier response! The sequence of events from my POV is:
TL;DR "I became significantly harder-working in ~June 2018" feels true from my perspective, but depends on definitions, and in some ways isn't as sharp as I might have communicated.
Re: novel work behaviors, some examples:
Maybe these seem obvious to you. They seem obvious to me now! But it all felt a bit mind-blowing for me at the time.
Looks great! Good luck on the market Zach!
I too am working on impact evaluation! Feel free to message me.
I would've ignored this important opportunity if not for this post (because I was not aware that UK situation had changed this year). Thank you Tyrone!
This is perfectly written and very helpful -- thank you JueYan!
Jakob, I sincerely apologize for my unhelpful (or at the very least unelightening) phrases that have come across as soldier mindset/rude.
I was commenting as I would on the unshared google doc of a friend asking for feedback. But perhaps this way of going about things is too curt for a public forum. Again, I'm sorry.
(I will probably reply on the substance later; currently too busy. I think there's a decent chance that I will agree with you that, in addition to being rude and craply communicated and coming across as soldier mindset, my previous comments reflected sloppy thinking.)
By then, this is no longer a bet on short AI timelines, but rather a bet about whether the typical consumer will realize that AI timelines are short sufficiently long enough before AI that you have time to enjoy your profits.
I get your point, but it just seems a bit 4D-chess.
If I believe that TAI is coming, it seems obvious to me that I should expect people beyond my peers to understand that TAI is coming. I could even encourage this by shouting it from the rooftops after making the bet. (The strategy might not be effective given that these views are already not well-kept secrets, but this seems to strengthen the possibility that others will understand without me shouting.) At which point we'd be in the new equilibrium.
Some possible answers that haven't seemed to have had large effects on hard-workingness for me:
(Several of these had important impacts on my mood.)
I became significantly harder-working in ~June 2018, age 22-23. This was not the case beforehand and has persisted for years afterwards. Some highly-overlapping-so-hard-to-disentangle things that happened around the time:
All of these improved quite sharply around the time boundary.
Nonlinear staff were participants on the FTX EA program, which I ran, and where I was in part responsible for participant welfare. Some of the important events took place in this period. This led me to start supporting Alice and Chloe. I have continued to be involved in the case on-and-off since then.