All of Julia_Wise🔸's Comments + Replies

In the US, Instacart has a "dietary preferences" setting where you can opt to have more shown to you from categories like vegan, vegetarian, organic, etc. But when I tried it, it seemed to show me basically the same as usual.

I think there are real downsides of mixing unrelated goals (in this case: improving livelihoods/skills for educated people in LMICs, and getting work done). 

  • remote work requires people who already have computer access, reliable internet, professional skills, and proficient English (or whatever language you need). So these are people who are already relatively well-off in their setting.
  • management capacity is often a bottleneck, so rather than onboarding people to things like deadlines and quality standards, for the sake of getting the work done efficie

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Pedro Freire
I agree this cannot replace donation-based interventions! It is still feels potentially underrated and underconsidered. I do agree that management and structure are the hardest parts. I do imagine many EA orgs have solved harder problems in the past. I think automatic dubbing services have become good enough to make English fluency not be a hard requirement anymore for many potential jobs. Here is a super hacky fermi-gpt estimate of a headcount of potentially hireable global workers: """ hacky fermi estimate — internet users → elite tail definitions (clean + explicit): * population: total population (≈2024–2025) * internet users: people using the internet (any device) * final pool (÷8000): internet users filtered by three independent 95th-percentile criteria * high cognitive ability (≈95th percentile) * hardworking (≈95th percentile) * ethical / trustworthy (≈95th percentile) combined ⇒ (1 / (20×20×20) ≈ 1 / 8000) interpretation: this is a very conservative lower bound on people who could plausibly do high-quality remote cognitive work using tools like chatgpt (incl. translation). this is not a hiring claim; it’s an order-of-magnitude sanity check. ---------------------------------------- hacky fermi table country population internet users final pool (÷8000) brazil 203,000,000 170,520,000 21,315 argentina 46,000,000 41,400,000 5,175 colombia 52,000,000 40,040,000 5,005 peru 34,000,000 24,480,000 3,060 chile 19,500,000 17,940,000 2,243 bolivia 12,400,000 7,440,000 930 paraguay 7,500,000 5,850,000 731 ecuador 18,300,000 13,725,000 1,716 mexico 129,000,000 96,750,000 12,094 nigeria 227,000,000 88,530,000 11,066 ghana 34,000,000 18,020,000 2,253 kenya 55,000,000 23,650,000 2,956 uganda 49,000,000 14,210,000 1,776 tanzania 67,000,000 20,100,000 2,513 south africa 62,000,000 44,640,000 5,580 egypt 112,000,000 80,640,000 10,080 morocco 37,000,000 31,080,000 3,885 tunisia 12,300,000 8,733,000 1,092 india 1,430,000,000 800,800,000 100,100 bangla

Mostly to various projects on AI risk policy and communications, and a smaller portion to GiveWell's recommended charities

For people interested in this type of content, Yale has/had a similar course called "Life Worth Living", mostly from a religious rather than philosophy perspective. A variety of interviews with past guests: https://lifeworthliving.yale.edu/practitioners

Top level post:

I haven’t actually seen the evidence that the LessWrong community was particularly early on covid or gave particularly wise advice on what to do about it.

I'm saying microcovid was a useful contribution on what to do about covid that came out of the rationality community.

2
Yarrow Bouchard 🔸
Fair enough, but it seems more like a cool, fun coding project in the realm of science communication, rather than a prediction or some sort of original scientific research or analysis that generated new insights.  The infectious disease doctor interviewed for the Smithsonian Magazine article about microCovid said that microCovid is a user-friendly, clearly explained version of tools that already existed within the medical profession. So, that’s great, that’s useful, but it’s not a prediction or an original insight. It’s just good science communication and good coding.  The article also mentions two other similar risk calculators designed for use by the public. One of the calculators mentioned, Mathematica’s 19 and Me calculator, was released on or around May 11, 2020, more than 3 months before microCovid. I was able to find a few other risk calculators that were released no later than mid-May 2020. So, microCovid wasn’t even a wholly original idea, although it may have been differentiated from those previous efforts in some important ways. When people say that LessWrong called covid early or was right about covid, what they mean is that LessWrong made correct predictions or had correct opinions about the pandemic (not by luck or chance, but by superior rationality) that other people didn’t make or didn’t have. And they say this in the context of providing reasons why the LessWrong community’s views or predictions on other topics should be trusted or taken seriously.  microCovid, as nice a thing as it may be, does not support either of those ideas. I think when you look at the LessWrong community’s track record on covid-19, there is just no evidence to support this flattering story that the community tells about itself. 

To give an example of where rationalists produced a useful tool here, I found microcovid useful. For example, to convince my father that it was very low-risk for him to resume outdoor social activities.

2
Yarrow Bouchard 🔸
That looks like an interesting project, but I’ll just state the obvious: late 2021 August 29, 2020 was far too late to call covid early. (The horse is out of the barn, across the street, and eating the neighbour's oats.) Also, interesting projects like this by bright, nerdy people aren’t meaningful evidence for the underlying thesis that “LessWrong called covid early” is invoked to support, namely, that Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Sequences or the rest of the LessWrong “canon” or LessWrong’s overall philosophy or epistemology or culture produces superior rationality in people. If you compared the LessWrong community against some demographically similar cohort like, I don’t know, undergraduate students in computer science at UC Berkeley, I imagine you would find all kinds of interesting projects created by the comparison cohort. If LessWrong is the “intervention” and the LessWrong community is the “experimental group”, then we also need a “control group”. And we need to look out for confounding variables. For example, if we were to compare LessWrong against the average U.S. population, I would worry there might be differences that could be explained just by education. But if you take some cohort of bright, nerdy, educated people who have never read the Sequences and have never heard of LessWrong, I imagine you would see the same sort of things, like this project, that you see in the LessWrong community. It's worth noting that the most organized, concerted effort of the LessWrong community to teach rationality, the Center for Applied Rationality (CFAR), turned out to be a complete disaster and, worst of all, CFAR also ran a summer camp for kids, meaning that it may have harmed/done wrong by children in a similar way as it harmed/did wrong by adults. I think Holden Karnofsky nailed it way back in 2012 when he wrote this: This point is especially correct and important: And this identification of a problem with overconfidence: Plus ça change! How pitiful is our enforced r

In cases where there is an established science or academic field or mainstream expert community, the default stance of people in EA should be nearly complete deference to expert opinion, with deference moderately decreasing only when people become properly educated (i.e., via formal education or a process approximating formal education) or credentialed in a subject.


On the other hand, many early critiques of GiveWell were basically "Who are you, with no background in global development or in traditional philanthropy, to think you can provide good charity evaluations?"

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Yarrow Bouchard 🔸
That seems like a perfectly reasonable, fair challenge to put to GiveWell. That’s the right question for people to ask! My impression is that GiveWell, starting early on and continuing today, has acted with humility and put in the grinding hard work to build credibility over time.  I don’t think GiveWell would have been a meaningfully useful project if a few people just spent a bit of their spare time over a few weeks to produce the research and recommendations. (Yet that seems sufficient in some cases, such as covid-19, for people in EA to decide to overrule expert opinion.) It could have been different if there were already a whole field or expert community doing GiveWell-style cost-effectiveness evaluations for global health charities. Part of what GiveWell did was identify a gap in the “market” (so to speak) and fill it. They weren’t just replicating the effort of experts.  [Edited on Dec. 16 at 8:50 PM Eastern to add: to clarify, I mean the job GiveWell did was more akin to science journalism or science communication than original scientific research. They were building off of expert consensus rather than challenging it.] As I recall, GiveWell initially was a project the founders tried to do in their spare time, and then quickly realized was such a big task it would have to be a full-time job. I also hazily recall them doing a lot of work to get up to speed, and also that they had, early on, (and still have) a good process for taking corrections from people outside the organization. I think as a non-expert waltzing into an established field, you deserve the skepticism and the challenges you will initially get. That is something for you to overcome, that you should welcome as a test. If that is too hard, then the project is too hard.  After all, this is not about status, esteem, ego, or pride, right? It’s about doing good work, and about doing right by the aid recipients or the ultimate beneficiaries of the work. It's not about being right, it's about gett

I first heard of cluster headaches when I worked in a psychiatric hospital with a young man who was suicidal in part due to his cluster headaches.
I didn't realize how little access to standard treatments there is! Thank you for moving this forward.

I don't have reason to think that prioritizing women's careers is more common in EA than in other similarly educated groups. And within EA, I definitely think it's still most common that women are doing more of the parenting work. But I wanted to highlight some examples to show that multiple configurations really are possible!

Hi Jessica! Some things you might check out if you're not already connected:
- EA Connect, the upcoming virtual conference
- Magnify Mentoring which might have mentors with experience in connecting people in LMICs to areas where AI safety is more established
- The opportunities board, which tends to have more accessible roles than boards aimed at full-time jobs
 

I kept wondering "how does this compare to sunlight" in terms of radiation that reaches the living layers of your skin, etc. Might be worth including that.

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Jeff Kaufman 🔸
Good question! Reworded a bit:

Related, from another member: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Y5HggjkG5ZPSv3arM/how-i-missed-my-pledge-and-how-i-m-fixing-it

Many of us have found our goals and desires shift a lot over time. I think there are some commitments flexible enough to be a good idea (like I'm happy I took the 10% pledge), while others lock you in in ways that won't be good for your long-term impact. My own sense of the best ways to have impact has changed a lot over time. This is also true for many others in the community.

Aside from other things that people value after retiring, there are forms of mentorship and contribution that can last long after you're no longer doing a standard workweek. Peter Si... (read more)

I think a charity that only existed to do this would have trouble getting charitable status; e.g. I think the Berkeley REACH wasn't able to get approved as a nonprofit because it didn't have a clear enough benefit to society.

There are some projects like this that charities can fund as part of a wider portfolio, e.g. the shorter fellowships Ollie points to, or career development grants. But "3 years of explore whatever seems best to you" sounds like a stretch to me.

One barrier is that nonprofits/charities typically can't fund this sort of thing. 

1
Midtermist12
"Charitable purpose" can be pretty broad under U.S. law, for instance, and could probably encompass such funding. Or do you mean that funders are not interested in it?

Thanks for voicing this!
Some places to connect:
- Magnify Mentoring aims to support people from underrepresented groups in pursuing altruistic work. I suggest checking them out if you haven't already!
- I'm not sure how active it is, but some EAs started a Facebook group EAs from immigrant backgrounds. I know family expectations about what you do with your career and money is a very common theme among people I've talked to among EAs whose families moved from lower-income to higher-income countries.

1
Angel Lau
Thanks Julia! I joined Magnify Mentoring (twice) but haven't heard of that Facebook group.

How do you get the yellow box with the draft amnesty text to put at the top?

2
Toby Tremlett🔹
The box is on the tag page here. Apologies - I removed it because it formatted weirdly in email. 

If you read this post and thought, "I should have an elastomeric respirator at my house," these are some options my family tried on.

My husband and I realized that we both likely would have moved to the Bay for work if we weren't married to each other and putting down roots in his home city. There's a lot of benefit we've had from living near his family, and near the folk dance community through which we met - Boston is a hub of that. 

We're lucky that one of us was from a city that has turned out to be a pretty good location for EA involvement, and a good location for in-person work in biosecurity. I have a lot of empathy for people who didn't happen to have that as a starting point.

Hey, I'm sorry things have been feeling so bad!

Ultimately, I see the goal of EA as more good experiences and less suffering. When you have a day that's ok instead of awful, when you make music that gives you satisfaction, when you have a good lunch or a good nap or a good experience of any kind, that's a win. You're not just here to create achievements, you're here as a living being whose experiences matter.

I'd echo Dave that talking to somebody (beyond LLMs) seems like a good idea.
If you're not already getting medical/mental health care for depression, I'... (read more)

I was in a conversation recently about how organizers usually don't have managers. A board member of a city group said to the organizer of that group, "Should we start having regular calls every few weeks?" and the organizer said "Yes please!" 
If you're an organizer with a board, or a board member of a group, consider if you should do regular management or accountability-buddy type calls!

I agree that separating out community posts was not just a reaction to the FTX situation. Early in CEA's time running the Forum, the community section was an entirely different page, as you can see in this 2019 Wayback capture.
 

Thanks for sharing this warning!

I'm really sorry you've been in such a difficult and painful space. I'm so glad you were able to recognize the way the LLM was pushing you, and step back from that.

For anyone who's struggling and needs a supportive listener, I'd instead suggest a helpline with real people, for example via https://befrienders.org/find-support-now

3
Arunas
I fully aggree. Many countries have multiple hotlines catering for people from different backgrounds. That is definitely a better alternative, especially for people who feel like they don't want to burden someone. Due to anonimity - it bridges that gap of safety of opening and getting that so needed human contact which can pull one through a hard time. After the biggest step - opening up is done, one should however try and turn into either friends or profesional therapy.  A bit unfortunate thing though, is that many of those hotlines are extremely underfunded and sometimes short staffed. More PR and funding would for sure help more people to reach out to them. 
Julia_Wise🔸
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0
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90% agree

I'd be doing less good with my life if I hadn't heard of effective altruism

While I had a drive toward altruism, I think my efforts and donations would be directed to causes that were more random / more shaped by social environment and less by what might be best for the beneficiaries.

This is such a hard question! Even the most dedicated altruists make some carveouts, and I don't know of any consistent way that people decide what/how big those carveouts should be.
Some past writing on this:
Friendship as a sacred value
You have more than one goal, and that's fine - as you can probably tell, I've mellowed some since my mid-twenties when I was interviewed in Strangers Drowning.

4
NickLaing
There's been huge amounts of work done around reducing alcohol consumption and crime, the evidence base is incredibly good. As with many of these things the problem is getting policy change over the line. If my memory serves me correctly there's pretty slamdunk evidence for these being goog... 1) Increasing quantity of the cheapest alcohol unit available 2) Timings of sale like you say 3) Less outlets selling alcohol, and alcohol less obvious in supermarkets. I'm sure there will be more newer ones too my memory is 15 years old here.

I admire how much work you've put in for steps that I don't think twice about, like traveling! Thank you for your dedication!

Ok, thanks, that does make it easier to follow the argument.

Whatever one's goals, I'd caution against taking quick micromort estimates literally. E.g. I think the "walking on public roads is bad for you" data only includes your risk of getting hit by a car, and doesn't include the health benefits of walking, nor that pedestrian deaths are disproportionately at night and the victims are often intoxicated. Daytime walking while sober is overall good for longevity.

2
Vasco Grilo🔸
Thanks for the good points, Julia. David and Mike do not say what is included in the risk of death from walking on public roads in the UK. I guess it does not include health benefits. The reductions in life expectancy apply to random exposure covered in the estimation of the risk. For example, a random 1 km of walking on public roads in the UK considered in David and Mike's estimations, which should include walking at night and intoxicated. However, I agree it makes sense to assume a lower risk if one's exposure avoids the conditions where the risk is concentrated.

I think this piece could be more effective if it more clearly spells out the relationship between human life expectancy, land use, and invertebrate welfare. E.g. when you say "I estimate it increases the welfare of humans, and soil nematodes, mites, and springtails by 10.5 k QALY/$" I'm having trouble understanding what the relationship is between humans eating a healthier diet and invertebrate welfare. 

2
Vasco Grilo🔸
Thanks for the comment, Julia! The 1st sentence of the post and introduction is supposed to clarify that. I have now updated that sentence to the following.

EAs are a relatively young population, with a lot of years before most will die naturally. From the EA Survey: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/z4Wxd2dnTqDmFZrej/ea-survey-2024-demographics#Age


Many EAs also believe that this may be "the most important century", and that many pivotal decisions (e.g. around AI) will happen within the next few years or decades rather than being just as influenceable in 2080 or so.

1
Dr. Seth Mathus Ganz
I ran the numbers based on this exact population distribution and count. It’s a relatively small population and I think it misrepresents the world population of charitable people, but in any event, if you have <2k people who skew young, you’d want to ease into the shift towards donating at death to cover the first few decades, but once the pump is primed you’ll be able to go full death and outpace.  Simulated Giving Strategy for Young-Skewed Altruist Population We modeled 1,806 altruists with a young-skewed age distribution (mostly 20-40). The strategy combines modest lifetime giving with significant giving at death: - Early career (20-40): donate ~7.5% of income. - Mid career (40-60): donate ~2.5% of income. - At death: donate 50% of net worth. Results over 100 years (in billions USD): Decade Income Donations Death Donations Pooled Wealth 10 0.07 0.05 0.95 20 0.05 0.14 3.29 30 0.03 0.24 7.74 40 0.02 0.47 15.13 50 0.02 0.60 27.09 60 0.02 3.25 41.20 70 0.03 6.90 51.47 80 0.04 5.40 58.51 90 0.04 2.36 66.34 100 0.03 2.57 75.04 Key insights: - Income donations provide immediate but modest support. - Death donations grow over time and ultimately surpass income-based giving. - The pooled wealth of the population continues to grow, providing future security and flexibility.A hybrid strategy balances urgent needs today and maximizes long-term impact.  
1
Dr. Seth Mathus Ganz
That may be a hurdle for sure and may make my model idealistic. I wonder how charitable the 45 and overs are regardless of whether they identify as EA or not 

I think I don't understand what the purpose of a regional US EA electoral group would be. We had a slack channel for east coast organizers, but there wasn't much to coordinate about.

I loved meeting Nick at EAG! I knew he worked on public health in Uganda, but we also chatted about choices he and his wife have made to better fit in with their local community, like spending at a level comparable to the better-off of their Ugandan neighbors rather than more typical expat levels. His energy and positivity wowed me.

[I don't have knowledge of specific charities, sorry.] From a quick search, it seems most such charities focus on the US because the US is the only high income country where most boys are circumsised despite most parents not having a particular religious reason for it. In other countries where it's common, it's typically for religious or epidemiological reasons.

My guess is that change could come from medical angles (Claude thinks it's important that the American Academy of Pediatrics states the benefits outweigh the risks) and from norm-changing in hospita... (read more)

My understanding is that these general assemblies work by people literally coming to the same room to vote (even during covid). Willingness to spend a day on this is part of how you screen for who's invested. In a country the size of the US, the time and money costs of travel to any one location would be much greater.

4
James Herbert
I imagine you'd organise it the same way you'd organise any other national democratic organisation in the US - through representative structures, regional chapters, online participation options, and other standard approaches that democratic organisations use to manage scale and geography. I asked Claude for examples:
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Håkon Harnes 🔸
EA Norway has shifted from in-person to digital general assemblies since COVID. This change has sparked some ongoing debate. Benefits of in-person assemblies: * More informal networking and conversation * Better discussion environment * More enjoyable experience (digital meeting fatigue is real) * Previously combined with weekend conferences featuring talks and group discussions Benefits of digital assemblies: * Easier attendance * Especially for members with families * Especially for people not living in Oslo, the capitol * Lower costs (minor) * Lower bar of entry for new members EA Norway now also maintains an annual in-person gathering, essentially a mini-EAGx for Norway, were we plan to increasingly focus on organizational strategic planning to better capture some of the benefits of an in-person assembly.
2
Jason
I doubt "EA USA" would be the most practical expansion of this model. The prototype is a country of about 5.5MM people, about the size of New Mexico (although the bulk of the population is more concentrated than that might imply). The organization has a few hundred members and a budget in the low/mid six-figures. My hunch is that EA Norway's membership and program size may be fairly close to ideal for this model. Rather, I think the more viable expansion in larger countries would be subnational (e.g., EA Mid-Atlantic would have ~ an OOM larger population in range, with NYC and DC being within a few hours of Philly). Even that might be too big. You'd have to tweak the model for more geographically diffuse areas, possibly with some sort of federalism / representative governance  (e.g., EA Flyover States?) Having local units elect delegates is common (e.g., for associations of congregationist churches).

I think there's an important difference between "have I ever seen this in the history of any EA org" and "do I think it's a current trend / do I think it happens more in EA than other spaces." The title points to the first, and I think what's meant is the second.

5
Yi-Yang
Thanks, you're right. I'm gesturing at the later. 

>my initial guess here would be that EA is roughly net neutral
Yes, I think the null hypothesis is a good starting point. Sometimes I see people starting from the guess that EA has a bad effect, and that's not what the evidence suggests.

Minor note on clarity: I found the title confusing because "humanitarian" typically means "benefitting humans", and I think the claim here is "a method that's already been used to benefit humans could be used to benefit fish."

Hi! You might check out posts under the workplace advocacy tag: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/workplace-advocacy

2
Jeltsje Boersma
Thank you Julia! 

I didn't grow up to donate everything, but I had that goal when I was about your age. My writing from my 20s has some stuff that you might find relevant or useful: http://www.givinggladly.com/

1
S
Thank you!
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Mo Putera
Tangent: when I was reengaging seriously with EA before eventually changing my career path, your story was among the ones in Strangers Drowning that powerfully resonated with me. So it was interesting for me to learn recently that you felt strangely about MacFarquhar’s coverage of you and Jeff in SD.

Also Charles Gray of the "world equity budget."

A counter-example of a movement that had a burst of success, then an embarrassing decline, then revived: the early animal welfare movement. From my summary: "Lost steam after an initial burst of fundraising. Office was closed and they met in coffee houses. Main staff member was jailed for the society’s debts, another staff member continued working as a volunteer. Fortune turned when Princess Victoria (later Queen) and her mother decided they liked the organization, became the Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals."

My best guess is that EA didn't really engage much with this, because they never engaged much with starvation relief as an intervention.
The closest thing I can remember is holding up Norman Borlaug as an example of a very impactful career (implicitly in favor of bioengineering food).
 

A model I think is interesting, though I don't favor it as a good fit for an international field / movement like all of EA: When talking to EA groups in Nordic countries (EA Norway, etc), I was surprised at the extent of membership and elections as the basic means of operating any group there. If I understand right, members pay a fee to be members, and the expectation is that everyone will travel to an in-person annual meeting to vote for various leadership roles. This helps address the question of who's involved enough to get a vote.

Coming from a geograph... (read more)

Huh, I didn't realize this. My guess is that this is largely because most animal advocacy projects are based in the West, and most ducks are farmed in Asia. From: https://worldostats.com/animals-wildlife/duck-population-by-country/

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Angelina Li
Helpful chart! That's what the authors concluded as well:

I really like it when people write up experiences from areas that are uncommon for EAs to choose! Thanks for a very interesting read.

To be painfully accurate (hey, it's the Forum), I think my first donation was actually a bit under this. Jeff donated a larger amount that was probably part of the same transaction.

Good writeup!
Pathways is another online treatment program. There are also workbooks like The Pain Management Workbook.

Agree - in general when we want to keep someone warm we wrap them in warm clothes or blankets. I can see why it's not intuitive to keep the baby undressed (and keep them warm in a different way).

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