All of Julia_Wise's Comments + Replies

I think there's not much room between feeling "these people are more established / more put together / more employed than me" and feeling "oh no, people have so many expectations of me, don't screw up!" from the people who are more established/funded etc. I'm sure there are people who are in some happy medium position, but I'm having trouble thinking of any off the top of my head!

Thanks for the info - wishing you the best! Minor question - how do you say the name?

3
Epistea
12d
We usually say ɛpɪstɛa.

It seems very plausible to me that EA should have more capacity on risk management. That question is one of the things this taskforce might dig into.

Exciting!
When I'm pointing people to career advising, is your one-on-one advising aimed mostly at early career people? At this point do you expect to take advisees who are mid- or late-career?

vaishnav
24d122

Thanks for asking, Julia. Initially, we expect to accept a pretty wide range of people, across both age/experience levels and cause areas as we're exploring how these consultations can be as impactful as possible. Having said that, we intend to use information gathered during this process, along with insights from the community & affiliate orgs around neglected segments/user groups, to inform if and how we ought to specialize.


 

You note that it's not recommended for children. Seems worth noting there's some (but not good-quality) evidence that fasting isn't a good idea during pregnancy. Review of health outcomes from Ramadan fasting during pregnancy 

Answer by Julia_WiseApr 28, 20232716

I like the watch team backup concept. Basically a culture of double-checking without implying the other person is doing a bad job.

3
michel
1mo
+1, this has been a great new learn for me

Hi Luke, thanks for the suggestions! I've changed the form to reflect that it's fine to list yourself, and added a place to put more info about the person's bio / skills.

The intention is very much to get in touch with expertise outside the community - I've added a bit to make that clearer.

I'm happy to have a default plan of announcing who's on the task force after that's finalized, unless someone actively doesn't want to be identified.

2
LukeDing
1mo
Thanks so much Julia.

It implies that Will and Toby believe that preventing the creation of a happy person is as bad as killing them. I think that's pretty unlikely, because most people who value future lives think murdering an existing person is a lot worse than not creating a life.

1
Ariel Simnegar
2mo
Thanks for the clarification! I don't think my statement that Will and Toby "place moral weight" on the non-person-affecting view implies that they accept all of its conclusions. The statement I made is corroborated by Will and Toby's own words. Toby, in collaboration with Hilary Greaves, argues that moral uncertainty "systematically pushes one towards choosing the option preferred by the Total and Critical Level views" as a population's size increases.[1] If Toby accepts his own argument, this means Toby places moral weight on total utilitarianism, which implies the non-person-affecting view. Will spends most of Chapter 8 What We Owe The Future arguing that "all proposed defences of the intuition of neutrality [i.e. person-affecting view] suffer from devastating objections".[2] Will states that "the view that I incline towards" is to "accept the Repugnant Conclusion".[3] The most parsimonious view which accepts the Repugnant Conclusion is total utilitarianism, so it's unsurprising Will endorses Hilary and Toby's placing of moral weight on total utilitarianism to "end up with a low but positive critical level".[4] I don't think Will and Toby believe that preventing the creation of a happy person is as bad as killing them. (Although I do personally think that's the logical conclusion of their arguments.) The statement I actually made, that Will and Toby "place moral weight" on that view, seems consistent with their writings and worldviews. 1. ^ Greaves, Hilary; Ord, Toby, 'Moral uncertainty about population ethics', Journal of Ethics and Social Philosophy, https://philpapers.org/rec/GREMUA-2 2. ^ MacAskill, W. (2022). What We Owe the Future (p. 250). Basic Books. p. 234 3. ^ Ibid. p. 245 4. ^ Ibid. p. 250

>I'm not sure supporters of non-person-affecting views would endorse this exact claim

I'd put it more strongly - I think the original comment puts words in people's mouths that I don't think they mean at all. 

3
Ariel Simnegar
2mo
Hi Julia. Thank you for your charity in our previous interactions. Please let me know how you feel my comment puts words in people's mouths. I'll happily fix or retract any part of that comment which is misleadingly put.
Julia_Wise
3mo1510

In 2021, the woman and I discussed who she wanted to know about the situation. Our focus was on his colleagues at that time and people he might have a mentorship relationship with. I’ve clarified here that this did include one person who was a board member of EV UK (then called CEA UK) at the time.

When the TIME piece publicly described the situation but not either of the people’s identities, Nicole and I decided that the board should know that the account was about Owen (but not the identity of the woman). 


 

There's an old "Effective Zakat" group with some EAs on Facebook - you've likely posted it there already, but would be good to share there if not!

In the first case, I initially heard about the situation from a third party, but nearly all the information I knew came from Owen. (I asked the woman if she had concerns about the situation that she wanted to discuss, and I didn’t hear back.)

Julia_Wise
4mo5410

I should add something that I forgot to include.

I’ve talked about February 3rd as the date I told the boards of EV US and EV UK, because that’s when I told everyone who’s on the current boards.

As I said, I had previously discussed some but not all of the situation with Nicole Ross, who was my manager and who is on the EV US board. And one of the staff at FHI I informed in 2021 about the situation described in TIME was Toby Ord, who at that time was on the EV UK (then called CEA UK) board. He was no longer on the board by the time I informed both boards abo... (read more)

Julia_Wise
4mo5915

The TIME article is what prompted me to realize I hadn’t properly dealt with everything here.

Can you clarify the extent to which not informing the EV UK board was a result of the victim explicitly requesting something along these lines

She did not request that I not tell the board - I don't think we discussed that possibility.

What actions did you take to reduce the risks associated with these events

  • I had conversations with several of his colleagues alerting them to the situation so they could intervene if they thought something like this might be h
... (read more)
Arepo
4mo1518

She did not request that I not tell the board - I don't think we discussed that possibility.

To clarify - do you mean you didn't tell them by because you hadn't discussed the possibility that you would, or you did tell them because you didn't discuss the possibility that you wouldn't? That's an important ambiguity!

Either way, for all my recent disillusionment with EVF, I feel like you've been the one constant I've continually heard good things about, so I hope you learn whatever lessons apply here and continue providing much needed support to the community :)

Simon_M
4mo1914

How do you square:

The order was: I learned about one situation from a third party, then learned the situation described in TIME, then learned of another situation because I asked the woman on a hunch, then learned the last case from Owen.

with

No other women raised complaints about him to me, but I learned (in some cases from him) of a couple of other situations where his interactions with women in EA were questionable. 

Emphasis mine. (Highlighting your first statement implies he informed you of multiple cases and this statement implies he only informed you of one)

Julia_Wise
4mo4612

On Feb 3 I heard from Owen, I discussed the situation with Nicole, I informed Owen I'd be telling the boards, and I told the boards. I told Chana the following morning.

I hope I would have eventually recognized there was more to do here, including telling the board, but it’s possible I wouldn’t have recognized this.

pseudonym
4mo3740

What processes are in place that gives you this hope? Or do you mean you hope that you would have spontaneously reflected on this and decided to take action after not doing so for two years?

Julia_Wise
4mo18431

I want to explain my role in this situation, and to apologize for not handling it better. The role I played was in the context of my work as a community liaison at CEA.

(All parts that mention specific people were run past those people.)

In 2021, the woman who described traveling to a job interview in the TIME piece told me about her interactions with Owen Cotton-Barratt several years before. She said she found many aspects of his interactions with her to be inappropriate. 

We talked about what steps she wanted taken. Based on her requests, I had convers... (read more)

1
projectionconfusion
3mo
This seems to be a recurring issue in a lot of the recent controversies, that decisions are made by a relatively small and close knit group of people. Is there any work going on on ways to reduce this problem in the future?
Julia_Wise
4mo5410

I should add something that I forgot to include.

I’ve talked about February 3rd as the date I told the boards of EV US and EV UK, because that’s when I told everyone who’s on the current boards.

As I said, I had previously discussed some but not all of the situation with Nicole Ross, who was my manager and who is on the EV US board. And one of the staff at FHI I informed in 2021 about the situation described in TIME was Toby Ord, who at that time was on the EV UK (then called CEA UK) board. He was no longer on the board by the time I informed both boards abo... (read more)

[anonymous]4mo483

So thanks for the comment. And please let me maybe list some of my concerns here. I was going to contact Community Health Team directly, but then I thought that maybe I should write my opinion as a comment here as it may be a generally useful. It is a purely emotional reaction but like, I don't feel fine with what's going on. And because of that, this is also a burner account. For the record, I’m a woman.

TLTR:  I feel that the reaction to the Times and Vox articles within the community starts to be abusive and highly problematic in itself. I feel unsa... (read more)

MichaelA
4mo120117

I appreciate you sharing this additional info and reflections, Julia. 

I notice you mention being friends with Owen, but, as far as I can tell, the post, your comment, and other comments don't highlight that Owen was on the board of (what's now called) EV UK when you learned about this incident and tried to figure out how to deal with it, and EV UK was the umbrella organization hosting the org (CEA) that was employing you (including specifically for this work).[1] This seems to me like a key potential conflict of interest, and like it may have war... (read more)

bruce
4mo5818

Thanks for the apology Julia.

I'm mindful that there's an external investigation that is ongoing at present, but I had a few questions that I think would be useful transparency for the EA community, even if it may be detrimental to the CEA / the community health team. I'm sorry if this comes across as piling on in what I'm sure is a very stressful time for you and the team, and I want to emphasise and echo Kirsten's comment above about this ultimately being a "lack of adequate systems" issue, and not a responsibility that should be fully borne by you as an ... (read more)

Kirsten
4mo291325

Julia, I really appreciate you explaining your role here. I feel uneasy about the framing of what I've read. It sounds like the narrative is "Owen messed up, Julia knew, and Julia messed up by not saying more". But I feel strongly that we shouldn't have one individual as a point of failure on issues this important, especially not as recently as 2021. I think the narrative should be something closer to "Owen messed up, and CEA didn't (and still doesn't) have the right systems in place to respond to these kinds of concerns"

Answer by Julia_WiseFeb 16, 20232810

Hey, I'm sorry to hear this has been hard. Alcohol problems are so common in general that there are certainly other EAs struggling with this.

Here's an overview I put together a while ago about some different treatment options: Resource on alcohol problems

If you think talking with others in EA would be helpful, the EA Peer Support group has had other posts about this and allows anonymous posting.

Sending you best wishes!
 

-1
anotherburneraccountsorry
4mo
These look great, thanks!
Julia_Wise
4mo5415

There are some important misunderstandings here. [Username redacted], I’ll reach out privately to clarify.

Community health request, different from the moderation decision on whether this is allowed:
The person whose Twitter thread has indicated elsewhere that she doesn't think the accused should be identified, because that could reveal information about other women in the piece. The community health team is requesting that people not link to her Twitter thread.

I was talking with someone about survey design recently, and remembering how useful it was to have a workshop with a Faunalytics staff member on survey design. I think that particular person no longer does office hours, but they still do free office hours on several other topics and have a library of research and survey design advice. 

Less importantly, I love the Faunalytics logo.

Julia_Wise
4mo12185

To give a little more detail about what I think gave wrong impressions - 

Last year as part of a longer piece about how the community health team approaches problems, I wrote a list of factors that need to be balanced against each other. One that’s caused confusion is “Give people a second or third chance; adjust when people have changed and improved.” I meant situations like “someone has made some inappropriate comments and gotten feedback about it,” not something like assault. I’m adding a note to the original piece clarifying.

Julia_Wise
4mo3119

I don't think that appendix has enough information to give people the ability to comment on what would have made people be more or less comfortable coming to us with a concern in those situations. I want there to be room for broader discussion (though if people do have specific ideas, I’m interested to hear them). Our team will be continuing to work on improving our practices here, and we welcome suggestions for what we could be doing better.

Julia_Wise
4mo4616

I want to clarify — you did give me info about some concerns, and I really appreciate that. That allowed me to take action to keep the accused people out of CEA spaces.

I agree there’s room for improvement. Thank you for the services you provide here — I’ll be in touch.

Julia_Wise
4mo7015

The woman did bring this concern to us. I don't want to share details that would break her privacy, but I did my best to follow her wishes as far as how the matter was handled.  My post on power dynamics was informed by that situation.

Looking back at the situation, I’m not sure about some aspects of how I handled it. We’re taking a renewed look at possible steps to take here.

Simon_M
4mo328

Just bumping this in case you've forgotten. At the moment there only seem to be two possibities: 1/ you forgot about this comment or 2/ the person does still have a role "picking out promising students" as Peter asked. I'm currently assuming it's 2, and I imagine other people are too.

Seconding Peter Wildeford's questions.

Thanks. Is this person still active in the EA community? Does this person still have a role in "picking out promising students and funneling them towards highly coveted jobs"?

Julia_Wise
4mo454310

I’m responding on behalf of the community health team at the Centre for Effective Altruism. We work to prevent and address problems in the community, including sexual misconduct.

I find the piece doesn’t accurately convey how my team, or the EA community more broadly, reacts to this sort of behavior.

We work to address harmful behavior, including sexual misconduct, because we think it’s so important that this community has a good culture where people can do their best work without harassment or other mistreatment. Ignoring problems or sweeping them... (read more)

[comment deleted]4mo305
-3
gated
4mo
How can situations with false accusations be caught and handled, together with real sexual misconduct? 
rachelAF
4mo15047

There's a lot of discussion here about why things don't get reported to the community health team, and what they're responsible for, so I wanted to add my own bit of anecdata.

I'm a woman who has been closely involved with a particularly gender-imbalanced portion of EA for 7 years, who has personally experienced and secondhand heard about many issues around gender dynamics, and who has never reported anything to the community health team (despite several suggestions from friends to). Now I'm considering why.

Upon reflection, here are a few reasons:

  1. Early o

... (read more)
agunning
4mo1010

I suspect a very relevant factor influencing whether people are willing to come forward and talk to the team  is "how alienated/ accepted do they feel by EA culture in general", given that you come across as very much of that culture; for me this is something that helps a lot compared to say your average HR dept?

Julia_Wise
4mo12185

To give a little more detail about what I think gave wrong impressions - 

Last year as part of a longer piece about how the community health team approaches problems, I wrote a list of factors that need to be balanced against each other. One that’s caused confusion is “Give people a second or third chance; adjust when people have changed and improved.” I meant situations like “someone has made some inappropriate comments and gotten feedback about it,” not something like assault. I’m adding a note to the original piece clarifying.

Brennan.W
4mo2912

I believe the TIME article has been updated since its original publication to reflect your response. If you have the chance, would you be able to comment on the updated version?

Excerpt taken as of 18:30 PST 3 Feb 2023:

"In an email following the publication of this article, Wise elaborated. “We’re horrified by the allegations made in this article. A core part of our work is addressing harmful behavior, because we think it’s essential that this community has a good culture where people can do their best work without harassment or other mistreatment,” Wise wr... (read more)

[comment deleted]4mo5022
1
Sick_of_this
4mo
From the Time article:  How can any victim of sexual harassment feel comfortable approaching you with any concerns given these comments?
-6[comment deleted]4mo

Thanks Julia. While I do not want to imply the problem is solved, I think our community is a lot better due to your team's work, and I deeply appreciate that. Having a thoughtful and proactive team working on this seems very helpful for keeping our movement healthy.

I do think, insofar as is possible, some more transparency and specifics (especially on this one) could be very reassuring to myself and the community.

What proportion of the incidents described was the team unaware of?

I am interested in your thoughts whether data collection at EAGs have been effective or useful for capturing these kinds of incidents, how the community health team has responded, whether any of this is share-able in a deanonymised way?

Learning about what kind of problems people have experienced has led us to changes like asking attendees not to use Swapcard for dating purposes.

does the community health team expect to continue sharing summaries similar to what you published in this appendix going forwards? I found this quite useful personally in

... (read more)

Likewise I wasn't sure if this one was meant to be specific to EA spaces or to every social space I've ever been in: "Have you ever experienced retaliation for rejected romantic or sexual advances in your social sphere?"

Julia_Wise
5mo4530

Hey, I'd like to look into this but I'm having a hard time figuring out who might have given this kind of feedback to the documentary maker, or what part of CEA might have been advising on the project. DMing you.

I'm going to interpret this to include "hiring outreach beyond ads" for fields where hiring isn't done mostly through ads.

Best wishes with your work!

6
Klau Chmielowska
5mo
Thank you so much!

When I used to work with homeless clients, one said that the $500 her parents gave her was "enough rope to hang myself with" - enough for a lot of drugs but not enough for a security deposit on an apartment. So given your wish to give to this population, I'd probably go with smaller amounts to more people.

Julia_Wise
5mo2125

+1 on saying something directly to GiveWell. info@givewellorg

Sometimes there's a problem in EA where people have a concern and write it up publicly, but don't flag it to the specific org or person they want to read it, and the org or person doesn't see it for a while or at all. 

If the facts are unclear, I think it's good practice to fact-check with the organization before writing publicly. But if the author doesn't think that's necessary or finds that too restrictive, I think they should at least ping the organization with "Here's a link to something I wrote about your practices."

4
Jeroen Willems
5mo
Thanks for pointing this out! My approach in the past has been to write things publicly, I hadn't really considered contacting the relevant organisations first which in hindsight seems really really stupid of me (I wrote the "Why did CEA buy Wytham Abbey" post). I will now aim to do so in the future. One benefit of asking things publicly is to get theories from other people. But I always felt scared that my public questions might come across as too "attacking", so I don't think that benefit is worth the potential negative impact now.
5
Jason
5mo
I sent info@givewell a link to this thread after not seeing a quick answer from the original poster, and got an auto-response that "We’ll make every effort to respond promptly, but it may take up to three business days to hear back from us during this busy time." I assume that is a holiday / end of tax year reference, which is totally understandable!
Julia_Wise
5mo3628

I agree that this is really important. When I started working at CEA in 2015, one of the main things my predecessor had been working on was developing anti-harassment practices for CEA’s conferences, and I continued her work. The conference materials from Geek Feminism were helpful to us in developing our practices. 

The place where all EAG and EAGx attendees agree to the standards is the code of conduct, which must be acknowledged when registering for an event. The text on the registration form for the upcoming EAG Bay Area is:

At EA Global and so... (read more)

2
bruce
5mo
Thanks for the response and clarification! This makes sense to me + and I agree RE: other factors that can change whether something is a problem or not. I think I was too certain in my wording of the original bullet point, and can see where it could be harmful if applied too broadly. I guess my prior here is that most people are not intentionally wanting to cause harm, but do so because of different expectations or communication norms or social abilities. If true, I wonder whether some clear examples that are generally seen to be controversially unwanted by those on the receiving end can help reduce the frequency of harmful actions - it might be helpful in getting folks on the same page in terms of what a lower bound for acceptable behaviour in this context looks like. For example, someone might not consider an particular action "sexual harassment", but 80% of women on the receiving end might find it uncomfortable and would prefer it if it didn't happen. In some of these cases it's probably valuable for there to be a norm that such actions just shouldn't happen. Agreeing to the text as stated doesn't do much to reduce these "misunderstandings". Giving some examples (while being clear that you can report incidents that don't fit these examples) also mean that if someone then does [inappropriate action], that folks don't really have the excuse of "sorry I didn't think this was inappropriate" / "didn't consider this sexual harassment, it was just a harmless joke". It also has fairly little downside risk, because if there was some hyper-specific context where it was seen to be appropriate by the receiving party even if it fit an example given, they just simply won't report it. I'm uncertain about this though, since I don't have a clear sense of what the distribution of harm and cases look like. Yeah, totally agree with this, hence "potential" action, though I think I wasn't clear enough here. I am interested in your thoughts whether data collection at EAGs have been

[edited to add: I'm second-guessing myself and have edited a bit because I don't remember ever actually doing this. I think I should develop a clearer policy here.]

I'd like to provide a picture of how this might play out. (To be clear, I'm making up pretend examples, not referring to Linda specifically.)

If you share specifics with me and want me to keep them specific, I will. So if you tell me in confidence that you're struggling with addiction or  have messed up your job or whatever, I won't share those facts with anyone.

But if a funder asked for my ... (read more)

The fact that talking to you can affect funding decisions is bad.  

You don't seem to understand how important funding decisions are to community members, which is baffling given your role. Or you do understand and that's why this information is not public, which is deceptive, and also very bad.

Reporting interpersonal conflicts almost always makes everyone involved look bad, at least a bit. I don't feel safe talking to someone who is also an evaluator. This is rely basic! 

Thanks, this helps me understand your views better.

Yes, perhaps linking to this outline in the post would help address confusion.

Julia_Wise
6mo1311

I feel confused about how you're balancing different aims against each other. Several times in the comments someone points out that your proposed interventions sometimes oppose your stated goal of "voluntary abortion reduction" (by increasing abortions or by not being voluntary.) Then you say there's some other consideration. This makes me feel the goals are constantly shifting, and I can't tell how much you really value each of them.

I'm no expert on cause prioritization, but I'd think a useful step would be to think about how you value each of the differe... (read more)

5
Ariel Simnegar
6mo
Thanks for your comment, Julia! I think my mistake (which began with the post's structure and tricked down into the conversation in the comments) was muddying the distinction between my actual conclusion (adding/removing one future person is close to as important as saving/ending a life) and one implication which I feel strongly about (abortion is morally wrong).  Though it's too late for most readers, I'll try to spell the structure of the argument I should have given here: 1. Premise: Longtermist EAs are sympathetic to total/low critical level views in population ethics and non-person-affecting views. 2. Corollary: These views, along with a sufficiently rosy image of the expected future person's happiness, imply that we should consider adding a future person to be as good as saving a life. 3. Conclusion: Longtermists use (2) to argue that reducing the probability of x-risks is morally equivalent to saving innumerable lives. However, it also seems true that (2) implies that adding one future person, even in the near term, could also be as good as saving a life, whether or not it's ultimately as important a priority as reducing x-risk. Similarly (since we're assuming consequentialism), removing one future person, even in the near term, could be as bad as ending a life. 4. Implications: 1. EA-relevant: 1. An intervention increasing the amount of future people might be an additional reason to support it. 1. e.g. if children saved by AMF go on to have more children, etc, that could update AMF's actual effectiveness relative to interventions which "only" improve lives, like GiveDirectly. 2. Or perhaps GiveDirectly gives families the resources they need to create more children, and we should care about that, etc. Either way, we should take these downstream effects into account when evaluating which causes to fund. 2. A

I hadn’t realized the original apologies from Will and me are no longer visible since Alexey took down the post. Here’s what Will and I wrote in November 2018:





(Alexey and others then replied with more thoughts, but I haven't sought permission to repost those comments.)

4
Wil Perkins
6mo
Since the initial posts are deleted, could you clarify whether these apologies came before or after MacAskill publicly posted a rebuttal he wrote based on the confidential draft?
Julia_Wise
6mo23776

Maya, I’m so sorry that things have made you feel this way. I know you’re not alone in this. As Catherine said earlier, either of us (and the rest of the community health team) are here to talk and try to support.

I agree it’s very important that no one should get away with mistreating others because of their status, money, etc. One of the concerns you raise related to this is an accusation that Kathy Forth made. When Kathy raised concerns related to EA, I investigated all the cases where she gave me enough information to do so. In one case, her information... (read more)

8
JoshuaBlake
6mo
This is a really good comment IMO, especially the final paragraph which I'm reproducing to avoid it getting lost in a comment which mostly focuses elsewhere.

The community health team does have an anonymous form. Thanks for the observation that it wasn't that easy to find - we'll be working on this.

The modal thing that gets reported to community health is something like “This person did a thing that made me / my friend kind of uncomfortable, and I’d like you to notice if other people report more problems from them.”

2
Linch
7mo
Thanks, this is helpful!

Thanks for raising this, I think I wasn’t clear enough in the post cited.

To clarify - that line in the table is referring specifically to sharing research, not all kinds of participation in the community. I meant it about things like “should people still be able to post their research on the EA Forum, or receive a grant to do research, if they’ve treated other people badly?” I find that a genuinely hard question. I don’t want to ignore the past or enable more harm. But I also don’t want to suppress content that would be useful to other EAs (and to the worl... (read more)

5
SeeYouAnon
7mo
A few brief comments. 1.) Clearly this is better than the alternative where the same considerations are applied to other ways of participating in the community. 2.) My issue isn't particularly with the community health team, but with a general attitude that I've often encountered among EAs in more informal discussions. Sadly, informal discussions are hard to provide concrete evidence of, so I pointed to an example that I take to be less egregious, though I still think on the wrong side of things here. I am more concerned by the general attitude that is held by some EAs I've spoken to than two specific lines of a specific post. 3.) People are banned from the forum for being rude in relatively minor ways. And yet let's imagine a hypothetical case where someone is accused of serious wrongdoing and further are specifically accused of carrying out some elements of wrongdoing via online social networks. It would seem weird to ban the first person for minor rudeness, but give the second person access to a platform that can allow them to build status and communicate with people via just the sort of medium that they allegedly used to carry out previous wrongdoing. Yet I think this is a plausible outcome of the current policies on when to ban people and how to react to interpersonal harm. 4.)  I agree that it's a different question; I still don't think it's a difficult one. For a start, I think it's a little odd to conceive of this as "suppressing" content. People  can still post content in lots of other places, and indeed other people can share it on the EA forum if they want to. Further, I don't think you can separate out enabling harm from posting to the forum, given that forum posts can confer status to people and status can help people to commit harm. So I think that the current policy just does enable harm. I think enabling this harm is the wrong call. 5.) I also think we could run the consequentialist case here, pointing to the fact that other people might not con

I don't know anything about this area, but it sounds like something that I'd expect people have looked at before if it's so technically simple. Do you have a sense of whether this has been trialed, or why it isn't already being done at scale?

1
Anthony Repetto
4mo
Another wonderful example of "so simple, why didn't anyone try it before" just this week: Robert Murray-Smith's wind generators seem to have a Levelized Cost comparable to the big turbines, yet simple and cheap, redundant: 
3
Anthony Repetto
7mo
Whoo. Last cross-post for the night, I think I've responded to the major points... and I hope this shows a bit more of the complexity underneath my simplistic presentation! How quickly it rains down depends on a few factors, and we can tip those in our favor: --> Humid Rise - humidity (just the h2o molecule) is only 18g/mol, while oxygen molecules are 32g/mol, so humid air is quite buoyant! Especially considering that water vapor reflects heat (infrared) back to the ground, creating a heat bulge beneath it. The result is that, once humidity begins to rise, it naturally pulls air in from all around it, along the ground. It begins to drive convection. Yet! That humid rise is normally billowy and easily dispersed by cross-breezes, which means that the humidity cannot rise high quickly; it mostly travels far overland, or stays in place. Your rain wanders to an unexpected location! We want to form rain clouds nearby, instead, so we need that humidity to rise really high, quickly, without being torn apart by cross-breezes. That's where the solar concentrators help, with their tall tower at 1200C and radiant, they blast infrared into all the water vapor around them, pummeling a plume high up, carrying that vapor. Up high enough, the air pressure drops, which is key for causing a rapid cooling, and the formation of nice heavy clouds. The faster we take air from the ground up to a few kilometers, the more water it'll still be holding. [[Only a fraction of one gram per m3 is needed for the thinnest clouds, but we could toss a few grams up and it'll come down soon. We want the water to rain, evaporate, and rain down again, in as many cycles as it can. That gives plants time to grab it, in numerous locations, as well as time for the ground to catch some.]] When we look at water-demand for plants in the wild vs. water-resilient greenhouses, we can drop water demand ten-fold because nine-tenths of the water was lost in the leaves to evapotranspiration! As a result, if that leaf
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Anthony Repetto
7mo
Another cross-post from Lesswrong about a detailed example, the entire Sahara: Thank you for diving into the details with me, and continuing to ask probing questions! The water brought-in by the Sahara doesn't depend upon the area of the source; it's the humidity times the m3 per second arriving. Humidity is low on arrival, reaching only 50% right now in Tunisia, their winter drizzles! The wind speed is roughly 2m/sec coming in from the sea, which is only 172,800m/day of drift. Yet! That sea-breeze is a wall of air a half kilometer high - that is why it can hold quite a bit. If we need +10% of a 500m tall drift, that's 50m; if we can use solar concentrators to accelerate convection, we can get away with less. And, we're allowed to do an initial row that follows the shoreline closely, while a second row is a quarter kilometer inland, running parallel to the shore, where mixing of air lets you add another round of evaporate. So, we could have four rows across the northern edge of the Sahara, each row as thick as it needs to be to hit high humidity, and 10m tall, to send +10% moisture over the entire 9 million km2 of the Sahara. How much water would we be pumping? The Sahara carries 172,800m/day flow per m2 intake surface x 500m tall x 4,000km coastline at 10g h2o per m3 = 3.5 billion tons per day, a thousand or so dead seas. (About 1.25 Trillion tons a year, enough to cover the 9 Million km2 with 139mm of rain, on average, if it had fallen instead of being sopped-up by adiabatic heat.) We need 10% of that, or a hundred and eighty dead seas. It seems monstrous, but much of the coastline there is low for miles, so pumping 1 ton to the top of 10m at even just 20% efficiency costs 500kJ. If you want to pump that in a day, using solar, you'll need 1/4th of a square foot of solar. That 1 ton, if we cross the threshold and it becomes surplus rain, will water 3 square meters their annual budget... and the solar is paying for that amount of irrigation every day; 1,000 m2
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Anthony Repetto
7mo
These details might help see the complexities [[a cross-post of my comment from the Lesswrong cross-post of the original post, in that thread of comments!]] Let's start at a more practical scale: make the Negev Bloom. The Negev is 12,000 km2, which, if we want grasslands, needs some 300mm extra rain or more each year. That's 3.6 billion tons per year, or just 10Mt a day. With 20g/m3 humidity, we'll need passage of 500 billion m3 of air-flow each day. With convection driven by solar concentrators (those same which drive the pumps) to increase wind velocity during the day to 4m/s, across trays stacked 12.5m high, provides 50m3/sec, 4.32 million m3 per day across each meter of intake. Next, we pump rows inland, as each humid layer rises, to capture drier air as they mix and move-past. Additional solar concentrators power these, and conveniently, the concentrators' intense heat pushes humid air higher than it would during gentle billowing convection, rising to cool & enter the cloud-cycle faster. We would only be prevented from extending more rows if the elevation rises too high, or we create so much humidity and cloud-cover that our solar concentrators cease. Let's just say we have four rows. With 4.32 million m3 per meter of intake width, we'll need 116,000 meters... that's only 72 miles. With our four rows, that's a length of coast 18 miles long. The Gaza Strip is enough to water the Negev. And, as I mentioned in an earlier response to you, the vast majority of the humidity released by the Persian Gulf, Dead Sea, Red Sea, Mediterranean, is being used to fight-against the immense downdraft of adiabatically-heated and ultra-dry upper atmosphere, which is descending because of the boundary between Hadley and Ferrel cells. So, yes, there are billions of tons of water evaporating, and no rain! Yet, we know from geological records as recent as 9,000 bc, the Sahara was wet, with vast lakes - because of a slight increase in humidity above the threshold for accumulatio
1
Anthony Repetto
7mo
We have repeated evidence of good designs being ignored for a decade or more; hence the Silicon Valley axiom: "10 years ahead of time is as good as wrong." Similarly, good designs can be appallingly simple, and go unnoticed - for example, Torggler's swinging-door [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umfvm8I9_oU] design (watch on YouTube; there is no way to explain it properly, because it is so bizarrely simple). Another example is the original river-clean-up buoy-net system, debuted decades ago, and promptly ignored, despite grabbing all the plastic before it entered the ocean. We continued to hope for 'something to clean up the plastic' and grasped, later, at the Ocean Clean-Up guy who gave a TED talk. He got millions of dollars, and eventually he heard about the river-scooping buoy bot, and he began promoting it. Without that TED-talker's promotion, it's likely we'd all still not know about the more-effective and simpler and safer river-bot. This happens all the time. Similarly, in 2007, Leapfrog licensed from Anoto a unique dot-pattern, to print on regular paper (tiny dots, you can't see) such that an optic on a 'pen' could read the coordinates, and use an on-board computer and audio to output based upon what it saw you writing. So, you could draw a drum set, and tap each drum to hear it play. Leapfrog was making kid's workbooks and tailored software. I told them to put the dots on clear adhesive plastic, to convert any existing computer screen into a touchscreen. I faxed them my details, granted them license (they held all the others, and I didn't want to compete), and they proceeded to ignore me for six years. Leapfrog spun-off the pen and dots, to Livescribe, who was still stuck on how 'paper is the answer'. By 2013, they'd licensed my touchscreen to Panasonic, who bottled it up inside their $400 tablet that wowed the Germany Electronics Expo with its artistic precision. Artistic precision you could have had in 2007, and you still can't, because Panasonic is cam
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PeterMcCluskey
7mo
I expect most experts are scared of the political difficulties. Also, many people have been slow to update on the declining costs of solar. I think there's still significant aversion to big energy-intensive projects. Still, it does seem quite possible that experts are rejecting it for good reasons, and it's just hard to find descriptions of their analysis.
Julia_Wise
7mo2311

Thanks to people who are leaving ideas here!

A note on the comment that asked why the community health team isn’t visibly “pulling these guys aside and privately warning them that they are making people uncomfortable.” We have definitely done that when someone lets us know about a problem and are ok with us doing something. In other cases, the person reporting the problem doesn’t want us to take action (often because they don’t want the other person to guess that they spoke up.) 

If you’ve experienced a problem and want us to talk to someone, we’re very... (read more)

Julia_Wise
7mo2514

Thanks for starting this discussion!

Some previous efforts here:

The community health team has done some more in-depth work, for example interviews about women's experiences in a couple of workspaces. Unfortunately, the in-depth work didn't yield that many useful next steps. (I’m sure this varies, and in some cases in-depth study of what’s going on with the culture in a space would yield useful action points.)

And more general thoughts:

  • EA is multifaceted, made of thousands of people in different online spaces, workplaces, cities, and countries. Even understan
... (read more)
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Dawn Drescher
7mo
Since Isabel argues that this is a deployment rather than a research problem, and since CEA doesn’t have a lot of fine-grained control over all the EA spaces, and since I have the perhaps naive and not-empirically-substantiated view that at least the majority of organizers of EA spaces are well-intentioned – maybe we need high-status group stress the urgency of this problem more. For example, maybe you can still get permission to work with all these interviews some more, e.g., mix and amalgamate them into a large body of anonymized case studies to convince anyone who thinks that that’s not happening in their particular spaces that they’re likely mistaken and need to address the problem?

The community health team at CEA is available to talk about concerns like this. You can reach us here.

Hey Julia, this reads as if these problems have not been reported to the community health team. I understand (with modest confidence) that they have. 

Julia_Wise
7mo4818

Additional thoughts as Catherine's colleague:

Larger events or groups are more likely to have a code of conduct — for example the code of conduct at CEA events makes clear that unwanted sexual attention does not belong at these events. Our conferences also have at least one community contact person available on site to help with any personal or interpersonal problems that come up. We encourage anyone experiencing uncomfortable treatment at one of these conferences to let us know so we can address it.

Smaller EA events and groups are less likely to have ... (read more)

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