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kokotajlod

2838 karmaJoined Aug 2015

Bio

Most of my stuff (even the stuff of interest to EAs) can be found on LessWrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/users/daniel-kokotajlo

Sequences
2

Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities: A Problem for Longtermism?
What to do about short timelines?

Comments
386

FWIW I think that it's pretty likely that AGI etc. will happen within 10 years absent strong regulation, and moreover that if it doesn't, the 'crying wolf' effect will be relatively minor, enough that even if I had 20-year medians I wouldn't worry about it compared to the benefits.

Normally I'd say yes, but my AGI timelines are now 50% in ~4 years, so there isn't much time for R&D to make a difference. I'd recommend interventions that pay off quickly, therefore. Bed nets, GiveDirectly, etc.

Ouch, I wasn't aware of those rules, they do seem quite restrictive. If it's a website rather than an app, how easy would it be to set it up so that you can access it with a single button press? I guess you can have favorites, default sites, etc.

But really, before anyone actually goes and invests significant effort into building this, you should coordinate with me + other people in this comment section.

Minimum acceptable features are the bits prior to "That's it really."

Oh dang. How about: When you press the button it doesn't donate the money right away, but just adds it to an internal tally, and then once a quarter you get a notification saying 'time to actually process this quarter's donations, press here to submit your face for scanning, sorry bout the inconvenience'

Oh dang. I definitely want it to be the former, not the latter. Maybe we can get around the iOS platform constraints somehow, e.g. when you press the button it doesn't donate the money right away, but just adds it to an internal tally, and then once a quarter you get a notification saying 'time to actually process this quarter's donations, press here to submit your face for scanning, sorry bout the inconvenience'

Everyone please downvote this comment of mine if they want to support the app idea but don't want to give me karma as a byproduct of my polling strategy; this cancels out the karma I get from the OP.

Hmmm. I really don't want the karma, I was using it as a signal of how good the idea is. Like, creating this app is only worth someone's time and money if it becomes a popular app that lots of people use. So if it only gets  like 20 karma then it isn't worth it, and arguably even if it gets 50 karma it isn't worth it. But if it blows up and hundreds of people like it, that's a signal that it's going to be used by lots of people.

Maybe I should have just asked "Comment in the comments if you'd use this app; if at least 30 people do so then I'll fund this app." Idk. If y'all think I should do something like that instead I'm happy to do so.

ETA: Edited the OP to remove the vote-brigady aspect.

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