All of lucy.ea8's Comments + Replies

Aaron,

   I have written a lot about education on this forum. See this old post of mine

Education is one of many things you can do with your time

I am talking about basic education here (12 years). A child going to school is not losing family time, they are  learning and playing with their friends at school. If there are not at school they might be looking after siblings, grazing the animals, or maybe doing nothing.

See GiveWell:

Givewell's research on education is of really poor quality.   Partly that is because they assume education has no... (read more)

They were driven by government policy, the policy was around changes in  the schooling system + whatever changes were needed to encourage kids to go to school. The changes had NOTHING to do with "increase the returns to schooling" as Pritchett wrongly asserts.

Were these increases typically driven by public demand

This is really hard to tell. If there are no schools in walking distance of your village and hence no one goes to school does it mean there is no demand? If you live in an authoritarian country and know that the dictator will not build schools... (read more)

Quotes from the papers

Even more particularly, government policies that increase the returns to schooling
will be key to raising the demand for education. 

FALSE. See Sri Lanka, Jamaica,  Mauritius, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Indian state of Kerala. All of these  places had increases in schooling before increased economic returns.

Lots of people ask why EA isn't very focused on education (or any number of other causes).

Education is one of 3 parts of Human Development Index, the other being Income and life expectancy.  The fundamental and FATAL problem of the EA community is not giving education equal importance as the other parts of the HDI.

Here I am talking about INTRINSIC value, as an end in itself like life expectancy.

The EA community and Give Well have never published moral weights for education vs money or life expectancy. They have chosen to disregard UNDP and HDI. I wond... (read more)

Linch we can also use HDI (Human Development Index) and calculate education ~= money

Here is what I get for children's education

6 years schooling = 890 PPP USD per year

9 years schooling = 2800 PPP USD per year

12 years schooling = 8500 PPP USD per year

Linch, Can you explain. What did not survive the test of time?

-Social movements (eg Fair Trade, Black Lives Matter, drug reform/prison reform movements)

I have been part of a few. Those perspectives are really useful.

· Global poverty that isn’t health. I'd like to see a handful of people in EA with expertise in, for example, climate policy, or education charities, or energy poverty in a developing world context.

Education and Human Development Indicators are something that EA needs to pick up.

No takers so far. As can be seen from the votes on my comments.

After spending more than half a billion dollars, and potentially directing more than 100 millon dollars every year. EA community has no understanding of why HDI was created, and has no answer for why Education was dropped.

"Global health and development" = HDI - Education

It is not a question of money, it is a question of Diversity and Inclusion.

My hypothesis is that if humanity really understands how the world works then the problems can be solved easily, otherwise we will keep putting effort into less effective ways, sure EA is more effective but it still has far to go, the deficit in EA is not money it is understanding.

Thanks trammell. I notice that only you told me why, I assume I got 5 downvotes at a minimum.

While not directly on topic, giving more is about bigger impact, if D&I is poor EA impact is worse. That's why I responded. My thinking is that money is not the constraint an understanding or lack of it is the constraint in improving the world. For which EA needs open hearts and minds, not https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In-group_favoritism

Answer from Elie Hassenfeld source

Q) On Gender Inequality, reproductive health, etc., GiveWell hasn’t done much work on this. Do you see gender equality as having intrinsic value? What are your thoughts on women’s empowerment?

A)

• We’re broadly consequentialist in the giving that we do - focused on the direct impact on the world
• We take that utilitarian perspective rather than the philosophical value of justice or helping the least
• Focusing on equality per se has not been a focus for that reason
• We could treat this differently by seeing gend

Interesting replacing "thing X" with "basic education" reads as follows

My four-fold “smell test” for what is important to development

I have a four-fold criteria for whether something is potentially an important determinant of development, or more narrowly, just economic growth, and I am happy if “basic education” that I am proposing is “good for development” can satisfy all four (and then can move on from these simple facts about potential importance to tease out complicated questions of proxima

Developing countries are very patriarchal, e.g. China, India have a distorted gender ratio at birth, women/girls lag in access to health care, education, power etc..

Given this, as far as I know GiveWell charities don't have a gender lens, neither do your reports talk much about gender.

Do you think a gender focus would be useful? If yes, why has this not been done.

If not, then why not?

Thanks Aaron. I try not to assume anything, and usually ask for clarification. I should have done the same here.

Thanks for the link.

Health and Education ... Three out of those five are already front and center in EAs' awareness anyway

According to drawdown Health and Education is mostly about basic education (high school equivalent in USA) and access to contraception. Contraception is a minor issue that EA correctly pays little attention.

Education on the other hand is given very little attention in EA, and is the critical factor in human well being. Sadly a big miss by EA.

Health, nutrition and education improvements also have positive impact on GDP growth, not just the other way around

Precisely. This is the story of Kerala, China (pre-reform)

First, thanks! I had no idea Afonso de Albuquerque's conquests had been so marvelous

I would not call any conquest marvelous

combined with general chaos and disruption

That chaos and disruption is critical. Even before Cortes set foot, death from disease made native societies very weak and easy to conquer. 1493 deals with this aspect.

There have always been wars, victors, conquered in history, I consider Afonso as just one more example of the same.

1491: New Revelations of the Americas Before Columbus Paperback – October 10, 2006
by Charles C. Mann

1493: Uncovering the New World Columbus Created Paperback – July 24, 2012
by Charles C. Mann

I found those books useful and interesting on the question of conquest. Disease and death from disease I think is the reason for dismantling of local empires. The same did not happen in the rest of the world.

Alexander, Genghis Khan and others like that routinely rose and fell over millenia, those stories are spread in time. The Americas are a different st... (read more)

Thanks Linch, a better indicator than adult literacy is youth literacy.

In China 1950, for kids aged 15-19 21.86% of boys had no education, for girls 49.9% had no education.

By 1980 for kids 15-19 1.32% of boys and 3.88% of girls had no education. This is a dramatic improvement.

plus at least naively, we would expect the Cultural Revolution to have wiped out some of the progress

the cultural revolution only stalled increase in education beyond 9th grade, so it had very little effect on literacy rates

From "Challenging Myths about China's One-Child Policy"

The third fatal problem with the “400 million births prevented” claim is that it totally ignores the most significant source of fertility decline worldwide: economic development. As the popular slogan has it, “economic development is the best contraceptive”. China’s dramatic post-1978 economic boom and the profound social changes unleashed by rising incomes and levels of education and rapid urbanization would have driven down birth rates even in the abs

hey brunoparga, it is not one interaction that I find problematic. i am happy to be voted down when people respond back. it is those downvotes without a response that troubles me.

i like to interact and try to see others point of view, so its totally ok if you d'ont agree with me, say so, and explain your reasons. we may not agree at the end, but atleast we can try to understand each other.

Regarding voting. I have consistently been "controversial" when I have positive karma on a comment, I can see both +ve and -ve votes. While a few are not voted, and a lot of my comments get voted down.

You have 200 comments with 2000+ karma, I have 100 comments with 25 karma.

This is a pattern I see consistently.

I pointed out the context in which I made my comment.

China also opened up more, and the one-child policy gave it a bigger demographic dividend.

From reading Yong Cai and Amartya Sen etc.. its clear that one child policy had no effect on Chin... (read more)

From https://www.sdgsinorder.org/goals

1 SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities 4.1569

2 SDG 1: No Poverty 3.7812

3 SDG 5: Gender Equality 3.5569

4 SDG 16: Peace Justice & Strong Institutions 3.0923

5 SDG 7: Affordable & Clean Energy 2.2784

6 SDG 4: Quality Education 2.0549

7 SDG 6: Clean Water & Sanitation1.8721

8 SDG 8: Decent Work & Economic Growth 1.7282

Given the order for goals and targets, it's clear that taxation has to play a role, otherwise how are inequalities going to be reduced?

From FAQ

asked them to identify the first 20 that should be tackl

Hi Aaron,

"Eliminate the most extreme poverty" is ranked 2nd it is given high priority.

"Reduce all poverty by half" is ranked 16th at Medium priority

while "Boost per capita GDP" is ranked 40th at Low priority.

This implies that the "experts" think that "Eliminate the most extreme poverty" is a matter of distribution of money and power via state authority (taxation). Similarly "Reduce all poverty by half" is higher ranked than "per capita GDP growth" its about taxation and distribution agai... (read more)

regarding one child policy of china

Feng, Wang; Yong, Cai; Gu, Baochang (2012). "Population, Policy, and Politics: How Will History Judge China's One-Child Policy?" (PDF). Population and Development Review. 38: 115–29. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00555.x.
Whyte, Martin K.; Wang, Feng; Cai, Yong (2015). "Challenging Myths about China's One-Child Policy" (PDF). The China Journal.

+ read demographic research from http://www.wittgensteincentre.org/en/index.htm

I consider Hunger and Public Action as one of Sen's best books, it is available as open access online here

I think the outlier there is the US, not Chile.

The nation with highest life expectancy is Japan at 84 years, Chile, USA and every "developed" country is 75+ I would say all of them are on par

I'm just going by India's self-identification.

Not useful. North Korea is Democratic People's Republic of Korea, I guess republicans and democrats in USA should be thrilled. China is communist etc.. British were bringing civilization to the world etc...

Could I please have a source on China being that good

Ouch. My mistake. I should have written c... (read more)

Thanks Linch. You are right.

Amartya Sen compared China and India 30 years ago in his book Hunger and Public Action, it is worth reading today after all these years.

https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/0198283652.001.0001/acprof-9780198283652-chapter-11

Regarding Chile, Amartya Sen in his book Hunger and Public Action writes about it

https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/0198283652.001.0001/acprof-9780198283652-chapter-10

https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/0198283652.001.0001/acprof-9780198283652-chapter-12

life expectancy in Chile is on par with US, my interest about Chile would be more around how they have same life expectancy as US with less money.

India's pre-1990s policies were not pro-growth, they were explicitly socialist.

Sure you can call them socialist, although I don'... (read more)

Most interesting, EA focus on "Boost per capita GDP" is ranked 40th as a Low priority

While

"Ensure all children graduate from primary and secondary schools" is ranked 7th as a High priority.

"End discrimination against women and girls" Which is related keeping all children in school is ranked 8th as a High priority.

I agree.

Chile, for example, people have been fighting tooth and nail against the policies that made the country the wealthiest, most educated one in South America

Chile was ahead of much of South America in 1950, I wouldn’t give credit solely to the last 40 years of policies. Data for Education, Income, Life Expectancy only Cuba was ahead in terms of both Income and Education (by a little bit) every other country was behind including Brazil

where pro-growth policies have been enacted were often authoritarian at the time (South Korea, Taiwan, Chile), or still

I can't find evidence on changes in college education attainment. So it's not apparent that they are pushing forward along this transition.

I am not sure why college education is so important. Their education levels have been consistently increasing as I pointed to earlier. repeating education graphic AGAIN

Given their increases in education, it is a good assumption to make that their college level education is also increasing.

None of them asked Mexican people how content they are to stay or immigrate.

I presented actual data on total mexican immi... (read more)

I'm not sure what the income-immigration connection really is.

Migration and Development: Dissecting the Anatomy of the Mobility Transition

The Hypothesis of the Mobility Transition by Wilbur Zelinsky (1971)

Emigration is related to income level of country. The highest levels of emigration are in middle income countries because they have ability (money) and desire to emigrate, for poor countries lack of awareness and lack of money are barriers, for richer countries they don't find uprooting themselves worth it. Mexico has passed the point of peak em... (read more)

I don't find "open borders" to be a loaded term

I live in a very liberal part of USA. I searched for "Open Borders" in my local library and found 3 books.

First a children's book which can be ignored.

"Open Borders Inc.: Who's Funding America's Destruction? by Michelle Malkin published in September, 2019" "America First: Why Americans Must End Free Trade, Stop Outsourcing and Close Our Open Borders by Paul Streitz published in 2006"

The assumption in those two books being that US already has open... (read more)

Best not to impute such meanings on the EA forum.

I regard "open borders" in the same category of as discussion about -isms, totally useless. In the US political context "open borders" is used to as a scare tactic. Which is why I regard the term as propaganda . (I am not imputing motive to you)

It is much better to talk specific numbers. US on average has been gaining 1 million residents a year for the last 20 years, and this is showing signs of slowing down. On the margin this can be changed with immigration policy. Overall though the l... (read more)

"Decriminalize attempts to cross the US border, and end migrant detention."

This has obvious benefits of increasing immigration and reducing the problems associated with border enforcement.

I expect illegal entry to still be a civil offense, instead of a criminal offense. I expect them to be deported back to their country of origin. This is much more humane, and better use of US effort (money).

Immigration will not increase all that much with this policy. Why? Mexico is an upper middle income country with fertility rate is 2.2, in addition women age... (read more)

oh good. now we are thinking about individual countries their histories and lessons that they can offer. Amartya Sen/Jean Dreze introduced me to this way of thinking in their book Hunger and Public Action, their latest "An Uncertain Glory: India and its contradictions" is good too.

Glad you brought up HDI which consists of three parts Education, Life Expectancy and Income.

In South Africa Education as you noted is up, Income is basically flat, Life Expectancy on the other hand in back to 1993 levels after crashing hard due to he AIDS crisis. South ... (read more)

Like I mentioned earlier, I have very little interest in economic growth. Education is a necessary but not sufficient condition, I said as much when I wrote " Education drives Health, and in case of market economies it drives wealth also." implying that other policies have an effect on wealth. Cuba is a good example, it is almost on par with USA in terms of life expectancy, babies per woman, but not money. This is because of their education levels.

Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova are ex USSR countries, the transition from communism had been catastrophic... (read more)

Hello Henry_Stanley,

Any one downvote without comment is understandable. I persistently get downvoted. At that point most people leave the community. Are those the norms that we want to create?

I never downvote people I disagree with, I ask them why and try to learn from them (or teach them).

I have very little interest in economic growth. I value basic education, followed by health.

The best papers on the subject are Education and Health: Redrawing the Preston Curve Wolfgang Lutz Endale Kebede

Global Sustainable Development priorities 500 y after Luther: Sola schola et sanitate Wolfgang Lutz

You can find detailed education dataset at http://dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org/wcde-v2/

Gapminder which i linked to earlier has a lot of data loaded into it. https://www.gapminder.org/tools

The idea that education is important is not new. Since the earl

perhaps countries which didn't produce huge welfare gains also implemented widespread K-12 education

That list of countries is zero.

On the contrary, countries with widespread education always had huge welfare gains. They did well in terms of life expectancy, under 5 mortality rate, babies per woman (a reasonable indicator for modernity, and women's empowerment).

If they were market economies like Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong they also had gains in income. China saw major improvements in education and social indicators pre-1979 reforms, it saw

ok cool. we are in agreement that communist countries had serious problems. even so China pre-reform (1979) had good social indicators that should not be dismissed as if they dont exist.

I re-read that post kbog, I am not advocating any -isms here. However I do see a bias for capitalism/free markets on the forum and ask for clarification.

I asked an unanswered question on that post some time ago https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ktEfsoGfBFGsaiY46/overview-of-capitalism-and-socialism-for-effective-altruism#TuY7ouzjFpeS7zYB2

In general I dislike arguing about -isms. I think policy. For me Universal Basic Education, Universal Basic Healthcare, Universal Basic Income are policies that I strongly support.

The order is also important first