President of EA Austria | Co-Founder of EA Graz |
Entrepreneur | Circling Facilitator
Interested in effective environmentalism with focus on climate change and air pollution.
relevant: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ucjaZFNrebZdZAnb9/impact-investing-is-only-a-good-idea-in-specific and https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Rkr2W8ADSGwWXfRBF/effective-impact-investing
The AMA recording is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNfhG6pTZvM
Crowdsourced notes: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1DNPhrj6rfD8C3K2rfNvhP48Z0XaI91aq4McuV_umL2k/edit#heading=h.fnqw4893e1db
The most interesting part of your post, to me, is your risk model . I would be curious to hear some more feedback from other people on it.
I turned it into a Guesstimate, making some adjustments to some of the numbers and using population figures from Austria .
Thanks for the explanation on extreme individual precautions, that made things clearer.
I'm curious what you're thinking of when you say "adopt measures that can plausibly be sustained for one year or even longer"?
I'm thinking of simple, low-cost changes to habits and my living environment that reduce chances of infection with Coronavirus and other illnesses. For example: improving personal hygiene practices (how to handle laundry, when to desinfect hands, how to keep the kitchen super clean, desinfecting electronic devices), changing workout times (to hit the gym at times when it's empty), invite my friends to use hand sanitizer when eating together, going to smaller events instead of mass gatherings, keeping a 1-month food supply at home.
These would be easy to sustain for a year or even longer. On the other hand, "not leaving the house" or "cancel all events" incurs significant cost, so I would not be willing to do that for an entire year unless the risk was very high. (Of course, the risk might become "very high" if >10% of the population becomes infected).
You mention exponential spread, working from home, and avoiding travelling after March.
But what is the endgame here? How long do we need to stop travelling for? Should we apply these measures, as far as possible, starting in April and keep them up until a vaccine is available in 1-2 years? Will the number of cases level off eventually?
I assume there is no scientific consensus on these questions. If the virus is here to stay, then there might be little value in adopting extreme individual precautions for just one or two months. Afterwards, when you stop taking these extreme measures, there will be an even higher risk of infection. Under these circumstances, it seems better to adopt measures that can plausibly be sustained for one year or even longer.
I would think hard about what the relevant resources are that you're trading off against each other. Are your hobbies important for your well-being and relaxation? Is it possible that by starting to monetize your hobbies, you might get less enjoyment out of them? Maybe it will also create some imbalance as you spend more time on them than you otherwise would? Or perhaps it's the opposite and monetizing your hobbies would actually increase the quality of your leisure time? Perhaps you can run a time-limited experiment to find out.
Also, as a full-time online entrepreneur my opinion is that neither blogging nor streaming are particularly good income streams unless you have reason to think you would be exceptionally good in either of these.
Also, have you read this? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3p3CYauiX8oLjmwRF/purchase-fuzzies-and-utilons-separately
You could use the donation swap system at EAHub: https://donationswap.eahub.org