Impacts being distributed heavy-tailed has a very psychologically harsh effect given the lack of feedback loops in longtermist fields and I wonder what interpersonal norms one could cultivate amongst friends and the community writ-large (loosely held/purely musing etc.):
I think EAs in the FTX era were leaning hard on hard capital (e.g. mentioning no lean season close down) ignoring the social and psychological parts of taking risk and how we can be a community that recognises heavy-tailed distributions without making it worse for those who are not in the heavy-tail.
A underrated thing with the (post)-rationalists/adjacent is how open with their emotions they are. I really appreciate @richard_ngo 's replacing fear series and just a lot of the older Lesswrong posts about starting a family with looming AI risk. Just really appreciating the personal posting and when debugging comes from a place of openness and emotional generosity.
I notice a lot of internal confusion whenever people talk about macro-level bottlenecks in EA:
To be clear, I understand the counterarguments about marginality and these are exaggerated examples but I do fear at its core that the way EAs defer means we have the worst of both the social planner problem and none of the benefits of the theory of the firm.
I notice myself being confused about why trades have to happen at the OpenPhil level. I think Pareto Optimality in trades works best when there are more actors aggregating and talking. It's sad that donor lotteries have died out to an extent and so much regranting discourse is around internal EA social dynamics rather than impact in and of itself.
Examples of resources that come to mind:
Again this is predicated on good faith critics.
I wish there was a library of sorts for different base models of TAI economics growth that weren't just some form of the Romer Model and TFP goes up because PASTA automates science.