Lukas_Finnveden

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Getting money out of politics and into charity

Another relevant post is Paul Christiano's Repledge++, which suggests some nice variations. (It might still be worth going with something simple to ease communication, but it seems good to consider options and be aware of concerns.)

As one potential problem with the basic idea, it notes that

I'm not donating to politics, so wouldn't use it.

isn't necessarily true, because if you thought that your money would be matched with high probability, you could remove money from the other campaign at no cost to your favorite charity. This is bad, because it gives people on the other side less incentive to donate to the scheme, because they might just match people who otherwise wouldn't have donated to campaigns.

Getting money out of politics and into charity

We were discussing the idea back in 2009. Toby Ord has written a relevant paper.

Both links go to the same felicifia page. I suspect you're referring to the moral trade paper: http://www.amirrorclear.net/files/moral-trade.pdf

How Dependent is the Effective Altruism Movement on Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna?

Givewell estimates that they directed or influenced about 161 million dollars in 2018. 64 million came from Good Ventures grants. Good Ventures is the philanthropic foundation founded and funded by Dustin and Cari. It seems like the 161 million directed by Give Well represents a comfortable majority of total 'EA' donation.

If you want to count OpenPhil's donations as EA donations, that majority isn't so comfortable. In 2018, OpenPhil recommended a bit less than 120 million (excluding Good Venture's donations to GiveWell charities) of which almost all came from Good Ventures, and they recommended more in both 2017 and 2019. This is a great source on OpenPhil's funding.

AMA: Markus Anderljung (PM at GovAI, FHI)

Thanks, that's helpful.

The fewer competitive organisations there are in the space where you're aiming to build career capital and the narrower the career capital you want to build (e.g. because you're unsure about cause prior or because the roles you're aiming at require wide skillsets), the less frequently changing roles makes sense.

Is this a typo? I expect uncertainty about cause prio and requirements of wide skillsets to favor less narrow career capital (and increased benefits of changing roles), not narrower career capital.

AMA: Markus Anderljung (PM at GovAI, FHI)

Hi Markus! I like the list of unusal views.

I think EAs tend to underestimate the value of specialisation. For example, we need more people to become experts in a narrow domain / set of skills and then make those relevant to the wider community. Most of the impact you have in a role comes when you’ve been in it for more than a year.

I would've expected you to cite the threshold for specialisation as longer than a year; as stated, I think most EAs would agree with the last sentence. Do you think that the gains from specialisation keep accumulating after a year, or do you think that someone switching roles every three years will achieve at least half as much as someone who keeps working in the same role? (This might also depend on how narrowly you define a "role".)

Space governance is important, tractable and neglected

Why is that? I don't know much about the area, but my impression is that we currently don't know what space governance would be good from an EA perspective, so we can't advocate for any specific improvement. Advocating for more generic research into space-governance would probably be net-positive, but it seems a lot less leveraged than having EAs look into the area, since I expect longtermists to have different priorities and pay attention to different things (e.g. that laws should be robust to vastly improved technology, and that colonization of other solar systems matter more than asteroid mining despite being further away in time).

saulius's Shortform

If you have images in your posts, you have to upload them somewhere on the internet (e.g. https://imgur.com/)

If you've put the images in a google doc, and made the doc public, then you've already uploaded the images to the internet, and can link to them there. If you use the WYSIWYG editor, you can even copypaste the images along with the text.

I'm not sure whether I should expect google or imgur to preserve their image-links for longer.

What are examples of EA work being reviewed by non-EA researchers?

Since then, the related paper Cheating Death in Damascus has apparently been accepted by The Journal of Philosophy, though it doesn't seem to be published yet.

EAF/FRI are now the Center on Long-Term Risk (CLR)

Good job on completing the rebranding! Do you have an opinion on whether CLR should be pronounced as "see ell are" or as "clear"?

Insomnia with an EA lens: Bigger than malaria?

(Nearly) every insomniac I’ve spoken to knows multiple others

Just want to highlight a potential selection effect: If these people spontaneously tell you that they're insomniacs, they're the type of people who will tell other people about their insomnia, and thus get to know multiple others. There might also be silent insomniacs, who don't tell people they're insomniacs and don't know any others. You're less likely to speak with those, so it would be hard to tell how common they are.

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