lukeprog's Comments

Information security careers for GCR reduction

Is it easy to say more about (1) which personality/mindset traits might predict infosec fit, and (2) infosec experts' objections to typical GCR concerns of EAs?

Rethink Priorities 2019 Impact and Strategy

FWIW I was substantially positively surprised by the amount and quality of the work you put out in 2019, though I didn't vet any of it in depth. (And prior to 2019 I think I wasn't aware of Rethink.)

I'm Buck Shlegeris, I do research and outreach at MIRI, AMA

FWIW, it's not clear to me that AI alignment folks with different agendas have put less effort into (or have made less progress on) understanding the motivations for other agendas than is typical in other somewhat-analogous fields. Like, MIRI leadership and Paul have put >25 (and maybe >100, over the years?) hours into arguing about merits of their differing agendas (in person, on the web, in GDocs comments), and my impression is that central participants to those conversations (e.g. Paul, Eliezer, Nate) can pass the others' ideological Turing tests reasonably well on a fair number of sub-questions and down 1-3 levels of "depth" (depending on the sub-question), and that might be more effort and better ITT performance than is typical for "research agenda motivation disagreements" in small niche fields that are comparable on some other dimensions.

[Link] "How feasible is long-range forecasting?" (Open Phil)

Thanks! I knew there was one major study I was missing from the 70s, and that I had emailed people about before, but I couldn't track it down when I was writing this post, and I'm pretty sure this is the one I was thinking of. Of course, this study suffers from several of the problems I list in the post.

What to know before talking with journalists about EA

The linked "full guide" seem to require sign-in?

Are we living at the most influential time in history?

Great post!

Even just a few decades ago, a longtermist altruist would not have thought of risk from AI or synthetic biology, and wouldn’t have known that they could have taken action on them.

Minor point, but I think this is unclear. On AI see e.g. here. On synbio I'm less familiar but I'm guessing someone more than a few decades ago was able to think thoughts like "Once we understand cell biology realy well, seems like we might be able to engineer pathogens much more destructive than those served up by nature."

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