Cool search engine for probabilities! Any chance you could add Hypermind?
A few links that may be of interest:
I like the new name; solid choice.
Thanks for this!
FWIW, I'd love to see a follow-up review on lobbying Executive Branch agencies. They're less powerful than Congress, but often more influenceable as well, and can sometimes be the most relevant target of lobbying if you're aiming for a very specific goal (that is too "in the weeds" to be addressed directly in legislation). I found Godwin et al. (2012) helpful here, but I haven't read much else. Interestingly, Godwin et al. find that some of the conclusions from Baumgartner et al. (2009) about Congressional lobbying don't hold for agency lobbying.
Some additional recent stuff I found interesting:
The headline looks broken in my browser. It looks like this:
The last explicit probabilistic prediction I made was probably a series of forecasts on my most recent internal Open Phil grant writeup, since it's part of our internal writeup template to prompt the grant investigator for explicit probabilistic forecasts about the grant. But it could've easily been elsewhere; I do somewhat-often make probabilistic forecasts just in conversation, or in GDoc/Slack comments, though for those I usually spend less time pinning down a totally precise formulation of the forecasting statement, since it's more about quickly indicating to others roughly what my views are rather than about establishing my calibration across a large number of precisely stated forecasts.
Note that the headline ("Good Judgement Project: gjopen.com") is still confusing, since it seems to be saying GJP = GJO. The thing that ties the items under that headline is that they are all projects of GJI. Also, "Of the questions which have been added recently" is misleading since it seems to be about the previous paragraph (the superforecasters-only questions), but in fact all the links go to GJO.
Nice to see a newsletter on this topic!
Clarification: The GJO coronavirus questions are not funded by Open Phil. The thing funded by Open Phil is this dashboard (linked from our blog post) put together by Good Judgment Inc. (GJI), which runs both GJO (where anyone can sign up and make forecasts) and their Superforecaster Analytics service (where only superforecasters can make forecasts). The dashboard Open Phil funded uses the Superforecaster Analytics service, not GJO. Also, I don't think Tetlock is involved in GJO (or GJI in general) much at all these days, but GJI is indeed the commercial spinoff from the Good Judgment Project (GJP) that Tetlock & Mellers led and which won the IARPA ACE forecasting competition and resulted in the research covered in Tetlock's book Superforecasting.
I wrote up some thoughts on CBT-I and the evidence base behind it here.
Is it easy to say more about (1) which personality/mindset traits might predict infosec fit, and (2) infosec experts' objections to typical GCR concerns of EAs?