Cool stuff. Do you only leverage prediction markets, or do you also leverage prediction polls (e.g. Metaculus)? My sense of the research so far is that they tend to be similarly accurate with similar numbers of predictors, with perhaps a slight edge for prediction polls.

Damn.

There are now also two superforecaster forecasts about this:

• Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) regarding H5N1 avian influenza before 1 January 2025? (currently 3%)
• How many deaths attributed to H5N1 avian influenza will the World Health Organization (WHO) report between 7 February 2023 and 31 December 2024? (currently 97% on ≤1000 deaths)

Another historical point I'd like to make is that the common narrative about EA's recent "pivot to longtermism" seems mostly wrong to me, or at least more partial and gradual than it's often presented to be, because all four leading strands of EA — (1) neartermist human-focused stuff, mostly in the developing world, (2) animal welfare, (3) long-term future, and (4) meta — were all major themes in the movement since its relatively early days, including at the very first "EA Summit" in 2013 (see here), and IIRC for at least a few years before then.

Looks great!

Re: more neurons = more valenced consciousness, does the full report address the hidden qualia possibility? (I didn't notice it at a quick glance.) My sense was that people who argue for more neurons = more valenced consciousness are typically assuming hidden qualia, but your objections involving empirical studies are presumably assuming no hidden qualia.

I really appreciate this format and would love to see other inaccurate articles covered in this way (so long as the reviewer is intellectually honest, of course).