Problem
EA organizations like Open Phil and CEA could do a lot more if we had access to more analysis and more talent, but for several reasons we can't bring on enough new staff to meet these needs ourselves, e.g. because our needs change over time, so we can't make a commitment that there's much future work of a particular sort to be done within our organizations. This also contributes to there being far more talented EAs who want to do EA-motivated work than there are open roles at EA organizations.
A partial solution?
In the public and private sectors, one common solution to this problem is consultancies. They can be think tanks like the National Academies or RAND, government contractors like Booz Allen or General Dynamics, generalist consulting firms like McKinsey or Deloitte, niche consultancies like The Asia Group or Putnam Associates, or other types of service providers such as UARCs or FFRDCs.
At the request of their clients, these consultancies (1) produce decision-relevant analyses, (2) run projects (including building new things), (3) provide ongoing services, and (4) temporarily "loan" their staff to their clients to help with a specific project, provide temporary surge capacity, provide specialized expertise that it doesn't make sense for the client to hire themselves, or fill the ranks of a new administration. (For brevity, I'll call these "analyses," "projects," "ongoing services," and "talent loans," and I'll refer to them collectively as "services.")
This system works because even though demand for these services can fluctuate rapidly at each individual client, in aggregate across many clients there is a steady demand for the consultancies' many full-time employees, and there is plenty of useful but less time-sensitive work for them to do between client requests.
Current state of EA consultancies
Some of these services don't require EA talent, and can thus be provided for EA organizations by non-EA firms, e.g. perhaps accounting firms. But what about analyses and services that require EA talent, e.g. because they benefit from lots of context about the EA community, or because they benefit from habits of reasoning and moral intuitions that are far more common in the EA community than elsewhere?
Rethink Priorities (RP) has demonstrated one consultancy model: producing useful analyses specifically requested by EA organizations like Open Philanthropy across a wide range of topics. If their current typical level of analysis quality can be maintained, I would like to see RP scale as quickly as they can. I would also like to see other EAs experiment with this model.
BERI offers another consultancy model, providing services that are difficult or inefficient for clients to handle themselves through other channels (e.g. university administration channels).
There may be a few other examples, but I think not many.
Current demand for these services
All four models require sufficient EA client demand to be sustainable. Fortunately, my guess is that demand for ≥RP-quality analysis from Open Phil alone (but also from a few other EA organizations I spoke to) will outstrip supply for the foreseeable future, even if RP scales as quickly as they can and several RP clones capable of ≥RP-quality analysis are launched in the next couple years. So, I think more EAs should try to launch RP-style "analysis" consultancies now.
However, for EAs to get the other three consultancy models off the ground, they probably need clearer evidence of sufficiently large and steady aggregate demand for those models from EA organizations. At least at first, this probably means that these models will work best for services that demand relatively "generalist" talent, perhaps corresponding roughly to the "generalist researchers" category, plus some of the "operations" category, in this survey of EA organizational needs. Ongoing services may be a partial exception because in that category, demand from each interested client is relatively stable over time, so one might only need demand from 2-3 EA organizations to justify a full-time role providing that service at an EA consultancy.
Below, I comment on the current demand for each of these three models of EA consultancy. Based on polling other Open Phil staff, I think there is substantial demand for all four types of services from Open Phil alone, but I know less about demand from other EA organizations.
Projects
For example, I wish there was an EA consultancy I could pay to do the market research on how much EA organization demand there is for each of these types of services. :)
Here's an initial brainstorm of project types for which there might be substantial ongoing demand from EA organizations, perhaps enough for them to be provided by one or more EA consultancies:
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Impact assessment, e.g. trying to estimate the counterfactual impact of a grant made or project run a few years ago, by interviewing 5-20 people, gathering relevant facts, and putting some numbers on the magnitude of relevant changes in outcomes variables and counterfactual credit to different actors.
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EA event organization and management
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Statistics / data science assistance
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Web development projects for which EA context and habits are helpful, e.g. for new EA discussion platforms, forecasting/calibration software, or interactive visualizations of core EA ideas.
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Polling, survey research, and online experiments (e.g. via Positly+GuidedTrack) on EA-relevant questions
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Marketing pushes for EA things, i.e. figuring out which marketing tools best fit the thing to be promoted and the intended audience, and then executing
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Run an EA-related RFP, filter the responses, summarize the strongest submissions for the client to consider funding
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Policy development and advocacy
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Run a fellowship program, filter the responses, summarize the strongest candidates for the client to consider funding, find and manage the training resources and connection opportunities for the fellows
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Run a training program for staff / contractors / grantees / collaborators, a la a superforecasting workshop but with EA-specific content, and perhaps extending longer than one day
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Design and run a prize program
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Design, test, and iterate a training program, a MOOC, an undergraduate course, a summer school program, or other educational materials
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In general, pilot projects for ideas that, if successful, could perhaps become an ongoing program/organization
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Do 80% of the work for a recruitment round for a full-time role at the client organization
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Help communicate some research (that perhaps can't itself be done by consultants) to non-specialist audiences such as policymakers or the general public
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Other ideas?
I'm not sure how much overall demand there is for such projects to be run by EA consultancies, but there is substantial demand for some of them at Open Phil alone (see footnote).
Ongoing services
Again, an initial brainstorm:
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Initial vetting stages of job applicants
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On-demand EA life/career coaching
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On-demand EA-aware mental health services
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EA-aware legal services and HR services
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Some kinds of content writing
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Writing support (feedback, copyediting, design)
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Donor services
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A community fund / DAF provider
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Fiscal sponsorship for new projects without their own incorporation (yet)
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Other ideas?
Here again, I don't have a good sense of how much overall demand there is for such ongoing services from EA consultancies, but there is some demand from Open Phil alone.
Talent loans
I frequently think something like "If I could hire an analytically strong EA to work with me for 2 months on X, I would do it, but I can't hire anyone with that skill level for just 2 months, and also vetting hundreds of applicants and interviewing ~10 of them just to enable 2 months of work wouldn't be worth it."
But if McKinsey-style EA consultancies existed and had a track record for hiring conscientious, analytically strong people, then I could effectively hire such EAs for 2 months at a time (via a contract with the consultancy), with the consultancy already having done >90% of the necessary vetting and training.
Talent loans would often serve a similar purpose as outsourced analyses or projects, and I'd need more experience with all three to have a good sense of when I prefer a talent loan to an outsourced analysis or project. However, my initial guess is that I personally might have a need for two 2-4mo EA talent loans per year on average.
I'm not sure how much demand there is for this from others at Open Phil or other EA organizations. Rethink Priorities has made a small number of talent loans before, to Longview and Effective Giving.
Thoughts on offering these services
There are various books, courses, etc. on how to start and run a successful consulting business. I don't know how good they are, or how relevant their advice is to EA consultancies, but they might be worth a glance.
Probably any single consultancy should provide only one or a few of the services above, not all of them.
If you want to offer some of these services yourself, you could do a bit of market research on how much demand there is for the specific service(s) you think you can provide, and then start pitching potential clients to contract you for an initial chunk of work. Here are some potential obstacles and ways to address them:
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In this post I've mostly been thinking about the need for somewhat-established many-person consultancies, which can develop reputations for good client service and good selection and management of individual consultants. Individual freelance consultants can also be helpful, but they can be less convenient for clients, because then the client needs to put more work into vetting and managing the work of each individual consultant, instead of relying on an external firm for that. To overcome this problem you could try to get a job at an existing EA consultancy like Rethink Priorities, though there are very few such positions today.
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Some EA organizations may not have the budget to experiment with external consultants. But, you could encourage them to include some funding for EA consultant experiments in their next grant proposal.
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Your potential clients probably don't have much time to try things out with an "unproven" consultant. To overcome this, you could complete some example work of the sort you'd like to provide to clients, make it extremely "legible" to prospective clients (i.e. fast and easy to evaluate for quality and plausible usefulness), and then send it to potential clients. E.g. the reason I gave Rethink Priorities a grant to do more work on moral weight is that Jason Schukraft had previously written several reports on moral weight that I found helpful, and I think he knew Open Phil might find that specific kind of work helpful because it followed very directly from the "open questions" listed in my moral patienthood report, and pursued those questions from a similar perspective/framework.
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You might not have as good a picture of the client's needs as you think you do. There are lots of very subtle things that can make even high-quality work essentially unusable by the client. The best way to address this is to get a call with the potential client and ask them questions to understand in detail what they need and why, but it might be hard to get their time unless you've already done some work that is "close enough" to being useful to the client that they can recognize that the call might be worth the time.
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You might not be as good at providing the service as you think you are. If you've addressed the challenges above and you're still not getting any paid consulting work, that might be an indicator that your potential clients don't think you're as good a fit for providing those services as you think you are, in which case you should consider moving on and doing something else with your time and energy. Or perhaps get more experience (e.g. at one of the large generalist non-EA consulting firms) and then try again.
Some of these services could perhaps be offered not by new organizations, but by existing organizations deciding to offer particular services alongside their other work. For example Rethink Priorities could expand the range of services it offers, or 80,000 Hours could offer on-demand career coaching while continuing its other work.
Some additional notes of caution
The consultancies model looks promising to me given what I've seen in other industries and the constraints I've observed when Open Phil considers or tries to hire more staff. That said, I don't want to oversell it. In addition to the list of challenges in the previous section, I should say:
- One obvious failure mode is that EA consultancies, like many non-EA consultancies, might simply cost a lot but provide little value beyond generic advice, sharp-looking slide decks, and a façade of external justification for something a manager had been planning to do anyway. If this happens then I'd like to think EA client organizations would simply stop commissioning those services.
- In general, it can be difficult for consultants to understand the goals and heuristics of their clients in enough detail to know how to "hit the mark," without all the context that one can acquire as a full-time employee of that client. Perhaps especially in EA, even things that seem like minor details and debatable judgment calls can make the ultimate product effectively useless from the client's perspective. This might be a fundamental problem that limits the utility of the consulting model, at least within EA, to a pretty small set of services.
- Should a talented EA provide services via a consultancy, or do more entrepreneurial work that isn't specifically requested by EA clients, or do something else? It's debatable which of these will be more impactful. My guess is that experimentation, personal fit, and career capital development should play major roles when choosing between these options.
- I haven't spent as much time thinking through possible objections and reasons for skepticism about the advice in this post as I sometimes do, for time reasons. I hope that the community will discuss the pros and cons of my advice here in more detail in the comments.
Acknowledgements: I got helpful feedback from several people in the EA community on earlier drafts of this post but unfortunately forgot to ask permission to name them here, except for some people I name and quote or paraphrase in specific footnotes.
Notes
I'm happy to speak with anyone who wants to compete with Rethink Priorities! Feel free to send inquiries to [email protected]
(I work at RP, as well as at FHI and the EA Infrastructure Fund, but I'm writing in a personal capacity and describing activities I did in a personal capacity.)
On a similar note, there have been at least two times in the last few months when I think I provided quite useful advice to someone who was recently started an organisation or plans to do so soon, basically just via me describing aspects of how RP thinks and works. And probably >10 times in the last few months when I provided quite useful advice to researchers or aspiring researchers simply by describing aspects of how RP generates ideas for research projects, prioritises among them, plans them, conducts them, disseminates findings, and assesses impact.*
I'll also be delivering a 1-hour workshop that partly covers that latter batch of topics to participants of a research training program soon, and would potentially be open to delivering the same workshop to other groups as well. (You can see the slides and links to related resources here. Note that this workshop is something I'm doing in my personal time and expresses personal views only; it merely draws on things I've learned from RP.)
I say "quite useful" based on things like the people wanting the calls to run longer, asking for followup calls, writing up strategy docs afterwards and asking for my feedback on them, etc. I don't yet have much evidence of actual good outcomes in the world from this.
This all increases my enthusiasm about the idea of more people trying to copy or draw on good bits of RP, including via:
(I also of course think there's a lot I and RP could usefully copy or draw on from elsewhere, and I've indeed already "imported" various things from e.g. CLR and FHI into RP or at least my own work.)
Basically, I'd be excited for lots of orgs and individual researchers to operate as anything on a spectrum from "good RP clones" to "very much their own thing, but remixing good aspects from RP and elsewhere". I think there's a lot of room for this.
I'm also now a guest fund manager at the EA Infrastructure Fund, and the version of me that wears that hat would likewise be excited about funding more people to do that sor tof thing. (That of course doesn't mean that I'd want to fund every application like this, but I'd want to fund some and would be excited to have more such applications coming our way.)
(Again, just writing in a personal capacity.)
*I also have my own in-my-view-useful thoughts on these topics, but even if I had deleted all of those from the conversations and just described RP thinking and processes, I think the conversations would've been quite useful.
The slides look good Michael. I also think that there is a lot of value in delivering research training and improving skills in the community - being an EA is basically doing applied research on how to do good better! By the way, here is a quick prioritisation template that Alexander Saeri and I developed based on the SNS/INT framework. There are also other tools on the linked website around intervention prioritisation that might be useful - feel free to take and adapt the spreadsheets if you want to create tools.
Thanks so much Peter! READI could never compete with Rethink Priorities but we might be interested in some coopetition :) I will send you an email!