Nathan Young

Head of Forecasting @ Zeitgeist
Working (0-5 years experience)
5297London, UKJoined May 2019

Bio

Participation
4

Create prediction markets and forecasting questions on AI risk and biorisk. I have been awarded an FTX Future Fund grant and I work part-time at a prediction market.

Use my connections on Twitter to raise the profile of these predictions and increase the chance that decision-makers discuss these issues.

I am uncertain about how to run an org for my FTXFF grant and whether prediction markets will be a good indicator in practice.

How others can help me

Talking to those in forecasting to improve my forecasting question generation tool

Writing forecasting questions on EA topics.

Meeting EAs I become lifelong friends with.

How I can help others

Connecting them to other EAs.

Writing forecasting questions on metaculus.

Talking to them about forecasting.

Sequences
1

Moving In Step With One Another

Comments
1043

Topic Contributions
8

Genuine question.

How easy is Will's accent to understand for Americans? I wouldn't be shocked in 20% of viewers struggled to understand him. If I'm right, it seems like something that could be worked on.

I guess it didn't occur to him. You can see he's nervous and speaking succinctly and winsomely in front of a crowd and tv cameras is really hard. I was impressed how many relevant facts he had at his immediate disposal.

Minor nitpick. I don't want to drive fossil fuel companies out of business. I want to tax their carbon-producing activities to the point they clear up the damage they have done and are carbon neutral in future. 

Giving a short nuanced answer to this effect would have been really difficult, but, alongside praising Will for what was a superb interview, it feels worth pointing out possible improvements. The world is lucky that Will did not accidentally die falling through the roof of some Scottish abandoned building[1].

  1. ^

    I'm paraphrasing, but this is a real thing that really nearly happened and if it had, I wonder where we'd all be now.

The interview went really well. Props to Will, that looked really difficult to navigate.

Sadly the video isn't available in the UK

Carrick Flynn

I don't know if Carrick plans to do more political runs in future, but if he does probably more followers would be valuable to him.

It's a dumb joke about the notion of a Global Warming Contest, as if your aim was to cause global warming.

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