Nathan Young

Sales/Product Management @ Goodheart Labs (Software Development)
Working (0-5 years experience)
9391London, UKJoined May 2019



Create prediction markets and forecasting questions on AI risk and biorisk. I have been awarded an FTX Future Fund grant and I work part-time at a prediction market.

Use my connections on Twitter to raise the profile of these predictions and increase the chance that decision-makers discuss these issues.

I am uncertain about how to run an org for my FTXFF grant and whether prediction markets will be a good indicator in practice.

How others can help me

Talking to those in forecasting to improve my forecasting question generation tool

Writing forecasting questions on EA topics.

Meeting EAs I become lifelong friends with.

How I can help others

Connecting them to other EAs.

Writing forecasting questions on metaculus.

Talking to them about forecasting.


Moving In Step With One Another


Topic Contributions

I did a podcast where we talked about EA, would be great to hear your criticisms of it.

Should I do more podcasts?

As in they've recently removed it? If not, that doesn't seem true.

Why do some shortforms have agree voting and others don't?

I notice I am pretty skeptical of much longtermist work and the idea that we can make progress on this stuff just by thinking about it.

I think future people matter, but I will be surprised if, after x-risk reduction work, we can find 10s of billions of dollars of work that isn't busywork and shouldn't be spent attempting to learn how to get eg nations out of poverty.

I am unsure what you mean? As in, because other orgs do this it's probably normal? 

There you go, 3 mana. Easy peasy.

You can see them separately, but it's how they combine that matters. 

I think this should be a full post. Happy to cowrite if you like.

I would like to see posts give you more karma than comments (which would hit me hard). Seems like a highly upvtoed post is waaaaay more valuable than 3 upvoted comments on that post, but it's pretty often the latter gives more karma than the former.

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