Nathan Young

Head of Forecasting @ Zeitgeist
Working (0-5 years experience)
5297London, UKJoined May 2019



Create prediction markets and forecasting questions on AI risk and biorisk. I have been awarded an FTX Future Fund grant and I work part-time at a prediction market.

Use my connections on Twitter to raise the profile of these predictions and increase the chance that decision-makers discuss these issues.

I am uncertain about how to run an org for my FTXFF grant and whether prediction markets will be a good indicator in practice.

How others can help me

Talking to those in forecasting to improve my forecasting question generation tool

Writing forecasting questions on EA topics.

Meeting EAs I become lifelong friends with.

How I can help others

Connecting them to other EAs.

Writing forecasting questions on metaculus.

Talking to them about forecasting.


Moving In Step With One Another


Topic Contributions

Genuine question.

How easy is Will's accent to understand for Americans? I wouldn't be shocked in 20% of viewers struggled to understand him. If I'm right, it seems like something that could be worked on.

I guess it didn't occur to him. You can see he's nervous and speaking succinctly and winsomely in front of a crowd and tv cameras is really hard. I was impressed how many relevant facts he had at his immediate disposal.

Minor nitpick. I don't want to drive fossil fuel companies out of business. I want to tax their carbon-producing activities to the point they clear up the damage they have done and are carbon neutral in future. 

Giving a short nuanced answer to this effect would have been really difficult, but, alongside praising Will for what was a superb interview, it feels worth pointing out possible improvements. The world is lucky that Will did not accidentally die falling through the roof of some Scottish abandoned building[1].

  1. ^

    I'm paraphrasing, but this is a real thing that really nearly happened and if it had, I wonder where we'd all be now.

The interview went really well. Props to Will, that looked really difficult to navigate.

Sadly the video isn't available in the UK

Carrick Flynn

I don't know if Carrick plans to do more political runs in future, but if he does probably more followers would be valuable to him.

It's a dumb joke about the notion of a Global Warming Contest, as if your aim was to cause global warming.

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