All of Michael's Comments + Replies

Good idea on creating a database. One misleading article (with community members' rebuttal) here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm4vAtKoH4nBCzsoQ/linkpost-a-response-to-rebecca-ackermann-s-inside-effective

As a community we should have easily accessible, respectful and good-faith responses to all prominent articles criticising EA.

One quick hack to do this could be using an ad-blocking extension such as uBlock Origin. It has an option to selectively block parts of the website (Right click on the element and choose "Block element..." and then "Create")

Great piece :) Nitpick:

Quote:
"When things feel particularly bleak, I sometimes tell myself that even if I had the time and energy to try to make the world better, I’d probably fail.

Effective altruists try anyway. They know it’s impossible to take the care you feel for one human and scale it up by a thousand, or a million, or a billion."

Quote 2:
"We could really make things very good in the future,” he tells me. “Imagine your very best days. You could have a life that is as good as that, 100 times over, 1,000 times over."

(highlights mine)

At the face value th... (read more)

5
Linch
2y
2022 era biological humans may not be capable of either, but our descendants (assuming we survive) may have a lot of room to change on both, should  they wish to do so.
  • Tiefenfuturismus
  • Tiefezukunftheit
  • Tiefe Voraussicht
  • Weitsicht für zukünftige Generationen
  • Zukunftschutz
  • Zukunftrettung

Probably it would be worthwhile to cross-reference your post with sources such as:

https://www.centreforeffectivealtruism.org/ceas-guiding-principles

https://resources.eagroups.org/running-a-group/communicating-about-ea/what-to-say-pitch-guide

These sources seem to encapsulate key claims of EA nicely, so points raised there could serve as additional points for your analysis, clarify some things up maybe (haven't thought of it much, just dropping the links).

I very much like the idea of targeting the "self-improvement" crowd, especially the more sensible authors such as Mark Manson or James Clear :) 

Answer by MichaelApr 08, 20221
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A) Covid has tangibly demonstrated for many people how a disease can get out of hand and biorisk is one of the most severe x-risks. Maybe playing up that angle would be beneficial? Something along the lines of "the pandemic is not over, yet we need to think about how to safeguard ourselves - and future generations - against another pandemic and other x-risks". Such a message could open a lot of doors into podcasts/newsletters/newspapers etc. Of course, that message would have to be crafted carefully and sensibly in order to avoid the accusations of profite... (read more)

Answer by MichaelApr 08, 20221
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1 Will MacAskill mentions that "What We Owe The Future" is somewhat complimentary to "The Precipice". What can we expect to learn from "WWOTF" having previoulsy read "The Precipice"?

2 How would Will go about estimating the discount rate for the future? We shouldn't discriminate against future "just because", however we still need some estimate for a discount rate, because:

a) there are other reasons for applying discount rate other than discrimination eg. "possibility of extinction, expropriation, value drift, or changes in philanthropic opportunities" (see... (read more)

Answer by MichaelMar 11, 202210
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Potential issue: desertion is deliberately hard in most militaries, by creating conditions akin to Prisonner's Dillema or The Tragedy of the Commons - what's rational for the group to do (desert) is very risky and irrational for an individual to attempt alone (any one soldier trying to desert, if they do it alone, risks getting caught and executed).

In Russian military the case is even more difficult - most of Russian soldiers probably have their families back in Russia, and it's very likely that deserters' families would be harassed, given that there are a... (read more)

2[comment deleted]2y

Russia is also one of the largest exporters of grain: https://www.ft.com/content/e6a28dd9-ecea-4d67-b6b5-a50301b731b2

Another point of interest - both belligerents provide key ingredients to chip manufacturing - for Ukraine it's neon, for Russia - palladium. War can potentially exacerbate the existing chip shortage: https://www.ft.com/content/e6a28dd9-ecea-4d67-b6b5-a50301b731b2

Answer by MichaelMar 09, 20227
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I recommend a book called: A Field Guide to Climate Anxiety by Sarah Jacquette Ray - as the title suggests it's mostly about climate anxiety, however I've found that a lot of ideas on "how to keep your cool on a warming planet" can be applied to any existential-risk related crises, such as this one. One recommendation is to definitely look after oneself, since good mental and physical condition is not a luxury nowadays, it's needed to act when the time is right. Also, there are chapters on how to organize your community to act effectively. Recommended read.

 

The post you linked is interesting but omits one crucial consideration - most of Russian soldiers probably have their families back in Russia, and it's very likely that deserters' families would be harassed, given that there are already many human rights' violations going on there.

Case in point - https://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/13/world/europe/13hazing.html - one of the Russian soldiers lost his legs in (peacetime) brutal hazing. His family was pressured with bribery to drop the charges against the army (they didn't). It's not hard to imagine similar, albeit brutal pressure put on families of deserters.

I've submitted a very rough draft of how we could profile charities (and perhaps other organizations) to get a feel how they contribute:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gacpE79RKke2foG9K/rough-attempt-to-profile-charities-which-support-ukrainian

I appreciate your feedback, I'd be happy to get this ball rolling.

2
RayTaylor
2y
Michael hi and I'll try to read that.  Just one major concern: in war and humanitarian work the INT framework may not be sufficient/ideal as in a war  you also have to factor in urgency and cascading consequences if logistics supply is not set up promptly, even before you have certainty ... e.g. if chemical protection masks and suits don't arrive before a toxic 'accident',  many may die  ... so there is a premium on prompt action as part of Critical Pathway Planning, and fine adjustments/discussions can happen in parallel rather than in the slow deliberative way one might normally want to do.  
Answer by MichaelFeb 27, 20225
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I've submitted a very rough draft of how we could profile charities (and perhaps other organizations) to get a feel how they contribute:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gacpE79RKke2foG9K/rough-attempt-to-profile-charities-which-support-ukrainian

I appreciate your feedback, I'd be happy to get this ball rolling.

I wonder about the issue of how  cost-(in)effective current interventions really are - it's true, that current interventions in the war zone can seem cost-ineffective in terms of immediate help to affected populations, however there is one larger game at play - Russian Federation's (and Belarussian) aggression against Ukraine effectively demolished the current peacekeeping balance in Europe and across the world, and it seems that responding to worldwide defence challenges in case of Russian victory can be much more costly and time/attention consuming,... (read more)

3
DPiepgrass
2y
I do worry about the Free World's response not being strong enough, and I'll be donating to some kind of Ukraine cause regardless of effectiveness. Still, I'm frustrated about not seeing an effective intervention. I'm in Canada btw, and the government is matching all donations to the Canadian Red Cross specifically, but the Red Cross has a "low impact" rating from Charity Intelligence. Hmm. Plus, Canada has generous tax deductions for donations to Canadian charities, so I'll probably dump some money in the CRC even as I doubt its effectiveness. I worry about follow-on effects. The more easily Putin succeeds in Ukraine, the more Xi Jinping might think he can succeed in Taiwan. The West may have enough resolve to sanction Russia, but sanctioning China would be much harder and many/most countries will be very tempted to defect. If Taiwan is invaded, the free world may weaken and the chance of World War 3 will increase. This historian analysis that I linked above encourages people to demand strong sanctions (I'm glad to see the SWIFT banhammer brought out btw): Sanctions work much better when everyone acts in unity (though we can assume China will not participate). It concerns me the most that India abstained from supporting the UN resolution against Russian aggression, and has not announced sanctions, and isn't acting even mildly bothered about the invasion AFAICT. But again, I'm not sure EAs have any leverage here beyond the standard "call your representative". (Best case scenario: sanctions and Ukrainian resistance are severe while Russian military morale is low; Putin reconsiders, and to save face moves all forces to Donbas, claiming that the invasion was a cover and that Donbas was the real target all along. An unlikely outcome, but if anyone can pull that off that pivot, Putin can.)
5
Valmothy
2y
Michael, I'm very much biased but that's a brilliant point:  aggression can't be tolerated and normalised
Answer by MichaelFeb 25, 20224
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Another way to get involved might be to join OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) community and help vet information from disinformation etc. There is a nice introductory article to be found here: https://www.freethink.com/technology/osint-ukraine 

Answer by MichaelFeb 25, 202214
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There is an initiative called Tech for Ukraine, aimed at pairing NGOs with tech companies in order to help the former develop IT capabilities eg. related to cybersecurity, embedded payments, gathering donations etc. - all this to amplify the humanitarian and civil society response in Ukraine.

Main page:
https://techtotherescue.org/tech/tech-for-ukraine

Case studies about projects so far (done for non-Ukraine related NGOs):
https://www.techtotherescue.org/case-studies

This could be an effective way to get involved, provided you have the skillset or you work in a company that can provide one.