That's not what I asked: In percentage points, how likely do you think you are right (and people who value e.g. GHWB over Animal Welfare are wrong)?

IIRC studies show it's easier to motivate people to give more than to shift existing donations.

How sure are you are right and the other EA (who has also likely thought carefully about their donations) is wrong, though?
I'm much more confident that I will increase the impact of someone's donation / spending if they are not in EA, rather than being too convinced of my own opinion and causing harm (by negative side effects, opportunity costs or lowering the value of their donation).

Disclaimer: Just skimmed the paper.

Their definition of "self-replication" seems to be just to copy the model weights to another place and start it on an open port - no unexpected capability.

To see the performance of AI agents on more complex AI R&D tasks, I recommend METR's recent publication: https://metr.org/AI_R_D_Evaluation_Report.pdf 

Having a human-centric core in EA seems robustly good to me, so we're sure to make the world a better place even if our other ideas don't pan out.

$1 increase in women’s income

What kind of income is this? Monthly, yearly, lifetime?

Very interesting, thanks for the analysis!

To me especially Figure 3 is important, it's insane how much food goes unharvested and how bad animals are at producing food.

Is there also a version that uses kcal instead of tons and that breaks down animal products into meat and vegetarian?

Minor correction, it's Alternative für Deutschland.

I don't know much about painkillers in LMICs, but in my understanding the US prescribes many more opioids than other western countries (like Germany, where I'm from). So this idea/problem might be specific to the US.

@mincho: How does Suzetrigine compare to existing non-opioid painkillers?

For anyone interested in how to go from research to large-scale production, there recently was an article about that in Works in Progress: https://worksinprogress.co/issue/getting-materials-out-of-the-lab/