Belief: I thought Russia would not invade Ukraine until it actually happened.

Reasoning: Russia is intertwined too closely with the EU and especially Germany. The CIA is lying/exaggerating to disrupt the cooperation.

What was I (possibly) trying to protect: I might have held economic partnership and entwinement in too high regard. I also might have thought that war in Europe was a thing of the past.

I'm trying to keep track of when I change my mind, but it's hard to notice when it happens and what exactly I thought before!

Can you give an update on the RCT?

I've just created the event for the next workshop on May 16, Teaching how to teach (Shenanigans Workshop).

An amateur's unqualified musings on learning and relating
Weaving together mindfulness, rationality, teaching and authentic relating.
We'll explore something in the direction of how to teach yourself, teaching as a metaphor for relating, and how to apply insights from it to what you care about.

I'm happy to see you there again if you're interested in that topic as well. :)

b. Moreover, the usage of insect feed may provide chickens the ability to forage and select what specific insect they want which is a behavioral trait insects keenly prefer as opposed to not having that choice.

Should the second "insects" be a "chickens"?

Great article, I've not thought about it in that much depth.

In Germany, the debate focuses solely on insects for human consumption at the moment.

Since we talked about calibration and I suggested exercising the right confidence intervals: There's a website for that!

https://programs.clearerthinking.org/calibrate_your_judgment.html

Reminds me of the saying, "The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now."

There's a new sequence on the EA Forum about forecasting / predicting the effectiveness of different interventions. I find it very interesting so far: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Everything: Predicting the Cost-Effectiveness of Deploying, Evaluating, and Developing New Interventions, and Beyond
The methods are probably too complex for personal use, but a demonstration of how forecasting can be applied on an institutional scale.

Thank you very much for the interesting case study. It not only gives good insight into your method, but also showcases a promising intervention.

Do you know what the current state of it is? Is it being developed further? Is it looking for funding?

I'm confused by "Anti-Malaria Foundation". Do you mean "Against Malaria Foundation" or is this an organization I'm not aware of?

Hey everyone,

The next workshop will be on Forecasting!

More details are in the event:
Forecasting (Shenanigans Workshop)

I hope you don't get too bothered when you receive notifications here, on Slack and on Telegram.

Here are Georg's slides: https://yesnodebate.org/slides/eaberlin