Create prediction markets and forecasting questions on AI risk and biorisk. I have been awarded an FTX Future Fund grant and I work part-time at a prediction market.
Use my connections on Twitter to raise the profile of these predictions and increase the chance that decision-makers discuss these issues.
I am uncertain about how to run an org for my FTXFF grant and whether prediction markets will be a good indicator in practice.
Talking to those in forecasting to improve my forecasting question generation tool
Writing forecasting questions on EA topics.
Meeting EAs I become lifelong friends with.
Connecting them to other EAs.
Writing forecasting questions on metaculus.
Talking to them about forecasting.
My thoughts here are something like:
Thanks for writing this.
It feels off to me that this is a forum reply. Seems like it is important enough that it should be a post and then showed to people in accordance with that.
I think the missing step here is that revealed preference suggest that most Sentinelese people would change their lives to become like us, but we wouldn't change to become like them. So the model doesn't predict what people actually want.
I think I'd bet at like 6% that evidence will come out in the next 10 years that Nick knew funds were likely fraudulently obtained. I think by normal definitions of those words it seems very unlikely to me.
There are lots of workshops one could go to and a quick sense of content will help me decide whether it's for me.
Fwiw I have little private information but think that:
Also thanks Habryka for writing this. I think surfacing info like this is really valuable and I guess it has personal costs to you.
I just think being a leader would be really hard. I am much less public that these people and I find dealing with that difficult. Now imagine billions of $ and 1000s of poeple looking to you to be a good role model.
I think we should hold our leaders to high standards, but we should be gracious when they fail. While I have criticisms of Will MacAskill, I think he's one of the best we have.
I think I'd prefer to see us discuss what the errors were and see if he can work on them, because he's already way ahead of most of us in terms of relevant competences. I am open to people stepping down, but I don't think permanently. We all make errors, it's about whether we can credibly convince relevant people that we won't make them again.
From my DMs:
"Publicly commenting on who knew what when means a significant risk of being subpoenaed or having to appear in court as a witness, which would be a huge hassle and time cost for whoever speaks out (and possibly also for their employer and other people they're connected to). I believe this is one of the main reasons why senior figures aren't commenting on this."
This feels like a missed opportunity.
My sense is that this was an opportunity to give a "big picture view" rather than note a particular underrated aspect.
If you think there were more important improvements, why not say them, at least as context, in one of the largest forums on this topic?
Thanks for your work :)