Otto

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Should we buy coal mines?

Anyway I posted this here because I think it somewhat resembles the policy of buying and closing coal mines. You're deliberately creating scarcity. Since there are losers when you do that, policymakers might respond. I think creating scarcity in carbon rights is more efficient and much more easy to implement than creating scarcity in coal, but indeed suffers from some of the same drawbacks.

Should we buy coal mines?

Possibly, in the medium term. To counter that, you might want to support groups who lobby for lower carbon scheme ceilings as well.

How I failed to form views on AI safety

Hey I wasn't saying it wasn't that great :)

I agree that the difficult part is to get to general intelligence, also regarding data. Compute, algorithms, and data availability are all needed to get to this point. It seems really hard to know beforehand what kind and how much of algorithms and data one would need. I agree that basically only one source of data, text, could well be insufficient. There was a post I read on a forum somewhere (could have been here) from someone who let GPT3 solve questions including things like 'let all odd rows of your answer be empty'. GPT3 failed at all these kind of assignments, showing a lack of comprehension. Still, the 'we haven't found the asymptote' argument from OpenAI (intelligence does increase with model size and that increase doesn't seem to stop, implying that we'll hit AGI eventually), is not completely unconvincing either. It bothers me that no one can completely rule out that large language models might hit AGI just by scaling them up. It doesn't seem likely to me, but from a risk management perspective, that's not the point. An interesting perspective I'd never heard before from intelligent people is that AGI might actually need embodiment to gather the relevant data. (They also think it would need social skills first - also an interesting thought.)

While it's hard to know how much (and what kind of) algorithmic improvement and data is needed, it seems doable to estimate the amount of compute needed, namely what's in a brain plus or minus a few orders of magnitude. It seems hard for me to imagine that evolution can be beaten by more than a few orders of magnitude in algorithmic efficiency (the other way round is somewhat easier to imagine, but still unlikely in a hundred year timeframe). I think people have focused on compute because it's most forecastable, not because it would be the only part that's important.

Still, there is a large gap between what I think are essentially thought experiments (relevant ones though!) leading to concepts such as AGI and the singularity, and actual present AI. I'm definitely interested in ideas filling that gap. I think 'AGI safety from first principles' by Richard Ngo is a good try, I guess you've read that too since it's part of the AGI Safety Fundamentals curriculum? What did you think about it? Do you know any similar or even better papers about the topic?

It could be that belief too, yes! I think I'm a bit exceptional in the sense that I have no problem imagining human beings achieving really complex stuff, but also no problem imagining human beings failing miserably at what appear to be really easy coordination issues. My first thought when I heard about AGI, recursive self-improvement, and human extinction was 'ah yeah that sounds like typically the kind of thing engineers/scientists would do!' I guess some people believe engineers/scientists could never make AGI (I disagree), while others think they could, but would not be stupid enough to screw up badly enough to actually cause human extinction (I disagree).

Should we buy coal mines?

If you want to spend money quickly on reducing carbon dioxide emissions, you can buy emission rights and destroy them. In schemes such as the EU ETS, destroyed emission rights should lead to direct emission reduction. This has technically been implemented already. Even cheaper is probably to buy and destroy rights in similar schemes in other regions.

How I failed to form views on AI safety

Hi AM, thanks for your reply.

Regarding your example, I think it's quite specific, as you notice too. That doesn't mean I think it's invalid, but it does get me thinking: how would a human learn this task? A human intelligence wasn't trained on many specific tasks in order to be able to do them all. Rather, it first acquired general intelligence (apparently, somewhere), and was later able to apply this to an almost infinite amount of specific tasks with typically only a few examples needed. I would guess that an AGI would solve problems in a similar way. So, first learn general intelligence (somehow), then learn specific tasks quickly with little data needed.

For your example, if the AGI would really need to do this task, I'd say it could find ways itself to gather the data, just like a human would who would want to learn this skill, after first acquiring some form of general intelligence. A human doctor might watch the healthily moving joint, gathering visual data, and might hear the joint moving, gathering audio data, or might put her hand on the joint, gathering sensory data. The AGI could similarly film and record the healthy joint moving, with already available cameras and microphones, or use data already available online, or, worst case, send in a drone with a camera and a sound recorder. It could even send in a robot that could gather sensory data if needed.

Of course, current AI lacks certain skills that are necessary to solve such a general problem in such a general way, such as really understanding the meaning behind a question that is asked, being able to plan a solution (including acquiring drones and robots in the process), and probably others. These issues would need to be solved first, so there is still a long way to go. But with the manpower, investment, and time (e.g. 100 years) available, I think we should assign a probability of at least tens of percents that this type of general intelligence including planning and acting effectively in the real world, will eventually be found. I'd say it is still unsure whether it will be based on a neural network (large language model or otherwise) or not.

Perhaps the difference between longtermists and shorttermists is imagination, rather than intelligence? And I'm not saying which side is right: perhaps we have too much imagination, on the other hand, perhaps you have too little imagination. We will only really know when the time comes.

How I failed to form views on AI safety

Thanks for the reply, and for trying to attach numbers to your thoughts!

So our main disagreement lies in (1). I think this is a common source of disagreement, so it's important to look into it further.

Would you say that the chance to ever build AGI is similarly tiny? Or is it just the next hundred years? In other words, is this a possibility or a timeline discussion?

How I failed to form views on AI safety

Hi Ada-Maaria, glad to have talked to you at EAG and congrats for writing this post - I think it's very well written and interesting from start to finish! I also think you're more informed on the topic than most people who are AI xrisk convinced in EA, surely including myself.

As an AI xrisk-convinced person, it always helps me to divide AI xrisk in these three steps. I think superintelligence xrisk probability is the product of these three probabilities:

1) P(AGI in next 100 years)
2) P(AGI leads to superintelligence)
3) P(superintelligence destroys humanity)

Would you like to share your estimates? I think it would make the discussion more targeted, and I think no estimate would be very foolish since basically no-one knows. :) or maybe :(

Personally, I guess my estimates are something like 1) 50%,  2) 70%, 3) 40% (not based on much).

It would be really great to have more and better papers on this (peer reviewed), so that disagreement can be made as small as possible - though it will probably never disappear.

Existential Risk Observatory: results and 2022 targets

Thanks for that context and for your thoughts! We understand the worries that you mention, and as you say, op-eds are a good way to avoid those. Most (>90%) of the other mainstream media articles we've seen about existential risk (there's a few dozen) did not suffer from these issues either, fortunately.

Existential Risk Observatory: results and 2022 targets

Thank you for the heads up! We would love to have more information about general audience attitudes towards existential risk, especially related to AI and other novel tech.  Particularly interesting for us would be research into which narratives work best. We've done some of this ourselves, but it would be interesting to see if our results match others'. So yes please let us know when you have  this available!