Researcher of causal models and human-aligned AI at FHI | https://twitter.com/ryancareyai
Hey Catherio, sure, I've been puzzled by this for long enough that I'll probably reach out for a call.
Community effects could still be mediated by the relevance of participants' research interests. Anyway, I'm also pretty uncertain and interested to see the results as they come in over the coming years.
My main impressions:
Larks' post was one of the best of the year, so it's nice of him to effectively make a hundreds-of-dollars donation to the EA Forum Prize!
Yep, that's it.
Have you heard of Neumeir's naming criteria? It's designed for businesses, but I think it's an OK heuristic. I'd agree that there are better available names, e.g.:
Tom Inglesby on nCoV response is one recent example from just the last few days. I've generally known Stefan Schubert, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Julia Galef, and others to make very insightful comments there. I'm sure there are very many other examples.
Generally speaking, though, the philosophy would be to go to the platforms that top contributors are actually using, and offer our services there, rather than trying to push them onto ours, or at least to complement the latter with the former.
Possible EA intervention: just like the EA Forum Prizes, but for the best Tweets (from an EA point-of-view) in a given time window.
Reasons this might be better than the EA Forum Prize:
1) Popular tweets have greater reach than popular forum posts, so this could promote EA more effectively
2) The prizes could go to EAs who are not regular forum users, which could also help to promote EA more effectively.
One would have to check the rules and regulations.
Hmm, but is it good or sustainable to repeatedly switch parties?
Interesting point of comparison: the Conservative Party has ~35% as many members, and had held government ~60% more often over the last 100 years, so the Leverage per member is ~4.5x higher. Although for many people, their ideology would mean they cannot credibly be involved in one or the other party.
The obvious approach would be to by-default invest in the stock market, (or maybe a leveraged ETF?), and only move money from that into other investments when they have higher EV.