stefan.torges

stefan.torges's Comments

Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020
and 10% for Nicolás Maduro.

The time horizon for this is "before 1 June 2020." That seems reasonable.

Focusing on Career & Cause Movement Building

Thanks for writing this! This seems to be very important if we want the community to tap increasingly into professional networks.

The case for building more and better epistemic institutions in the effective altruism community

I agree with all of what you say here. Building things for others can often go badly wrong. Thanks for sharing this perspective!

The case for building more and better epistemic institutions in the effective altruism community

I was referring to the option "Building the EA and related communities." If building such institutions is a form of community-building, then this gives some indication of its importance compared to other areas. Now, it might be the case that respondents didn't have this in mind when answering and if they did, they would give it a much lower score.

How Europe might matter for AI governance

Do you think these points make Europe/the EU more important than the US or China? Otherwise, they don't give a reason for focusing on the Europe/the EU over these countries to the extent that this focus is mutually exclusive, which it is to some extent (e.g., you either set up your think tank in Washington DC or Brussels, you either analyze the EU policy-making process or the US one).

Reasons to focus on the EU/Europe over these countries are in my opinion:

  • personal fit/comparative advantage
  • diminishing returns for additional people to focus on the US/China (should have noted this in the OP)
  • threshold effects
How Europe might matter for AI governance

Maybe I misunderstood. What's the point of highlighting only this statistic? It does not seem very representative of the report you're linking to or the overall claim this statistic might support if looked at in isolation.

EDIT: I didn't mean to imply intent on your part. Apologies for the unclear language. Edited original comment as well.

How Europe might matter for AI governance

This strikes me as an isolated example of Europe leading on one metric. I plan to write something more comprehensive, but I think just seeing this statistic could create a wrong impression for some people.

(edited to remove accusatory tone)

Review of Fundraising Activities of EAF in 2018

Edited. (Initial draft was made in April and I didn't update afterwards.)

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