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I think the “for just 11 generations” thing is obviously a joke. Obviously they can’t influence the culture of their kids by that much.

Same thing with the old Epstein “impregnate 20 women in a day” thing. It’s obviously impossible.

Does anyone have the zoom for todays event. Registered late and not sure I’ll get it.

In the assassination's problem, people manipulate the market to win bets. No one is doing that in this case.

Also, knowing when wars will happen is socially beneficial because uncertainty increases the probability of war. If both sides think they are strong, they both take strong bargaining positions. When their offers are rejected they fight. More knowledge -> bargains are more likely to be accepted.

Oh god the paragraph breaks didn't go through. Fixing!

Bottom Of The Envelope Calculation

Ah, I see. I'm mixing up career capital and status actually.

Multibillion dollar bureaucracies tent to be slow with stuff Ike this. You can call them to learn more, I don’t have all the details.

I have a full time job and can’t provide you a higher level of support/analysis without neglecting my responsibilities.

We also know a lot about what types of regimes are more susceptible to democratization. A democratization effort in Vietnam is much more likely to succeed because Vietnam is a party state, has some elections, has a strongish economy, etc. I can say more about that too.

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