According to this report from David Roodman, deaths of young childs could lead to additional births:
- "Looking within families in Uttar Pradesh in the decades up to 1999, a context in which fertility was high but had begun to fall, Bhalotra and van Soest 2008 finds partial replacement, with 0.37–0.52 extra births for each neonatal death".
Consequently, the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell top life-saving charities (e.g. in multiples of cash transfers) could be smaller under total utilitarianism (as has been discussed here). For example, the cost-effectiveness would be about 50 % lower for the above estimate of the replacement effect (neglecting longterm effects).
What is the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell top life-saving charities in terms of total additional years of healthy life per dollar? How different from 0.01 year/$?
Estimated as follows:
- GiveWell top life-saving charities avert one death for about 4.5 k$.
- According to this post from Open Philanthropy, "GiveWell uses moral weights for child deaths that would be consistent with assuming 51 years of foregone life in the DALY framework (though that is not how they reach the conclusion)".
- Consequently, the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell top life-saving charities is 51 DALY / 4.5 k$ = 0.01 DALY/$.