In this post, BenefitOfTheDoubt ranked the most important factors for happiness in this life, taking into account effect size, strength of evidence and directness of evidence. They close with the finding that the impact of religion on individual happiness is dwarfed by material considerations. 

But what about supposed non observable benefits, in the afterlife?

In this post, we build upon Pascal's wager and the many God's objection to Pascal's wager by filtering for the 5 most popular religions (consensus), then filtering for which afterlives  are more pleasant or unpleasant (correspondence), then survey criteria for accessing those afterlives (coherence).

Popularity 

Christianity is currently the world’s largest religion, and Islam is projected to surpass it by the end of the century. Had I lived at certain points in ancient Rome, the Roman pantheon might have seemed most prevalent. But I don't live in such a time. For inexplicable reasons this today is my subjective reality.

Judaism

In the Jewish Tanakh, the emotional quality of the afterlife is described. The clearest is found in Daniel.

“Many of those who sleep in the dust of the earth shall awake, some to everlasting life, and some to shame and everlasting contempt.” Daniel 12:2

There is no elaboration on what “everlasting life” entails. heol in most of the Tanakh is a shadowy, neutral abode of the dead, neither bliss nor torment.

Judaism, as the theological foundation of both Christianity and Islam, raises a distinctive question when considering salvation for non-Jews. Unlike Christianity or Islam, Judaism does not universally require conversion for salvation. Instead, it holds that non-Jews may attain a share in the World to Come (Olam HaBa) by adhering to a basic set of ethical principles known as the Noahide Laws. These include prohibitions against murder, theft, idolatry, sexual immorality, blasphemy, and cruelty to animals, along with a requirement to establish systems of justice. These laws are widely reflected in the moral norms of many societies today.

Mainstream rabbinic Judaism including nearly all contemporary Jewish denominations affirms that righteous individuals of all nations can merit salvation without becoming Jewish. This is explicitly stated in the Talmud:

"The righteous of all nations have a share in the World to Come." - Tosefta Sanhedrin 13:2; Babylonian Talmud Sanhedrin 105a.

Christianity

The Gospel of Mark, which is considered the earliest and therefore the most historical account of Jesus's teachings, the good afterlife is referred to as "the kingdom of God" or "life," but it is not described in emotional or experiential terms. Its value is emphasized through comparison and warning e.g:

"it is better for you to enter the kingdom of God with one eye than to have two eyes and to be thrown into hell, where their worm never dies, and the fire is never quenched." Mark 9:47-48 where Jesus is quoting Isaiah: "And they shall go out and look at the dead bodies of the people who have rebelled against me; for their worm shall not die, their fire shall not be quenched, and they shall be an abhorrence to all flesh.".

Mark implies the desirability of salvation but offers no description of its content. In contrast, hell is depicted with strong visual metaphors:

“To go into hell, to the unquenchable fire… where their worm does not die, and the fire is not quenched.” (Mark 9:43–48)

There is no elaboration on the experience of the saved or the condemned beyond these metaphors.

The concept of "Heaven" has roots in Greek thought and was later adopted by early believers when it became clear that Jesus was not returning within their lifetimes. In the Gospel of Mark, Jesus appears to distinguish between the Kingdom of God, depicted as an internal, present reality, and the Resurrection, a future event tied to the return of Jesus.

Pascal’s Wager (17th century) reflects later developments. Pascal assumes the infinite bliss of heaven and infinite torment of hell because by his time, those were well established in later Catholic writing.

I've made a seperate post on criteria for salvation in Christianity.

Islam:

Christianity and Islam present mutually exclusive paths to a favourable afterlife. 

Qur'an 5:72: "They have certainly disbelieved who say, 'Allah is the Messiah, the son of Mary,' while the Messiah has said, 'O Children of Israel, worship Allah, my Lord and your Lord.' Indeed, he who associates others with Allah – Allah has forbidden him Paradise, and his refuge is the Fire. And there are not for the wrongdoers any helpers."

There are Quranic arguments that Jews, Christians, and Sabians, can find a good afterlife.

Surah Al-Ma'idah (5:72) of the Qur'an says "Indeed, he who associates others with Allah, Allah has forbidden him Paradise, and his refuge is the Fire…”

It is interesting to note that Jesus would have used the related Aramaic term alaha (ahl-ah-HAH) to speak of God. The Arabic Allah derives from the same Semitic root

In the Qur’an, the good afterlife, Jannah, is depicted strongly: 

Surah Qāf (50:34–35): Enter it in peace. That is the Day of Eternity. They will have whatever they wish therein, and with Us is more.”

Surah Fuṣṣilat (41:30–32): “Do not fear and do not grieve but receive good tidings of Paradise… You will have therein whatever your souls desire and whatever you ask for.”

“Indeed, the criminals will be in the punishment of Hell, abiding eternally. It will not be allowed to subside for them, and they, therein, are in despair.” (Qur’an 43:74–75)

Hinduism 

Not only are these religions less popular worldwide than the Abrahamic religions, in the Bhagavad Gita, in verses 7:23, Krishna explains “Men of small intelligence worship the demigods, and their fruits are limited and temporary. Those who worship the demigods go to the planets of the demigods, but My devotees ultimately reach My supreme planet.” (per the Hare Krishna translation) or “But finite is the result gained by these men of small minds. Those who worship the deities go to the deities; those who worship Me come to Me” in the Advaita Vedanta translation. While translations vary based on the school of thought in Hinduism that translated these texts, a Christian who prays to God the Father or a Muslim who devoutly submits to Allah may still find a good outcome if Hindu beliefs are correct.

In the Bhagavad Gita, the good afterlife is liberation from rebirth is the misery of this world.

“Having attained Me, the great souls are no longer subject to rebirth in this miserable world, because they have reached the highest perfection.” (Gita 8.15)

The bad afterlife is presented as continued rebirth into unclear circumstances.

"These hateful, cruel, and vile people—the lowest of humanity—I repeatedly cast into demonic wombs, in the cycle of birth and death." (Gita 16.19)

“Bewildered by false ego, strength, pride, lust, and anger… they fall into the unclean worlds of hell.” (Gita 16.18–20)

These states are described morally and spiritually, but not affectively, there is no direct description of how they are emotionally experienced by the soul.

Unlike later Hindu scriptures such as the Bhagavad Gita or Upanishads, which focus on liberation (moksha), the good afterlife in the Vedas is commonly described as reaching Svarga (heaven), particularly through the performance of correct rituals and sacrifices, and by living a life in accordance with dharma.

 “Where there is eternal light, in that world where the sun has set not, all desires are fulfilled — there make me immortal.” Rigveda 9.113.7–11

Instead, those who fail to perform rituals or who act wrongly may fall into lower realms, such as darkness or “bottomless pits,” or simply be excluded from the heavenly path.

 “Let not the fire consume your skin nor scatter your limbs. Let your body be united again and go to those who lead holy lives.” Rigveda 10.16.9

Naraka as a term does not appear in the Vedas - it becomes more prominent in later literature such as the Mahabharata and Puranas.

Atala, as described in the Bhagavata Purana (5.24.7), presents a strikingly different picture of the afterlife compared to more familiar Hindu texts like the Vedas or the Bhagavad Gita. The Bhagavata Purana, composed around the 9th–10th century CE and highly authoritative in Vaishnava traditions, details a layered cosmology that includes Atala, a lower world (Patala Loka) filled not with torment but with seductive pleasure. Here, sorcerer Bala uses mystic powers to create enchanting women who trap souls in cycles of lust and illusion. This version of the afterlife is not a place of punishment in the conventional sense, but a realm where pleasure becomes a spiritual danger, drawing the soul further from liberation. In contrast, the Vedas, particularly the Rigveda, offer a more restrained and ritual-centric view of the afterlife, emphasizing Swarga (heaven) as a temporary reward for virtuous action, while rarely elaborating on hells.

The Bhagavad Gita (c. 2nd century BCE), considered one of the most philosophically central texts in Hinduism, focuses instead on transcending both pleasure and pain through karma yoga, jnana, and bhakti, leading ultimately to moksha (liberation). The Gita explicitly warns against being swayed by heavenly pleasures or fearful of hell, framing both as part of the illusory dualities of samsara.

From a Pascal’s Wager perspective, where belief is seen as a rational bet to avoid eternal suffering, the portrayal of Atala complicates the logic: here, a “hell” offers intoxicating delight, not suffering, showing that in Hindu thought, illusion (maya) can wear both painful and pleasurable masks. Unlike traditions that offer eternal heaven or hell as binary outcomes, Hindu texts. from the Vedas to the Puranas, consistently portray all such realms, whether painful like Naraka or pleasurable like Atala, as impermanent and spiritually binding. True belief, as emphasized in the Gita, is not about securing a better afterlife, but about transcending all desires and fears, aiming for union with the divine beyond the cycles of rebirth.

Buddhism:

The Buddhist Dhammapada describes both the good and bad afterlives using clear emotional terms. Nirvana is associated with bliss, contentment, and peace.

“The evil-doer grieves here and hereafter; he grieves and suffers when he sees the evil of his own deeds.” Dhammapada 15

“The liar goes to the state of woe… he burns in hell.” Dhammapada 306

“He who torments the innocent will soon come to one of these ten states of suffering… being born in hell, in the animal world, in a ghost realm, in poverty, in disease, in madness, or destruction.” Dhammapada 137–140

"Some are born in a womb, evildoers go to hell, the virtuous go to heaven, and those free from defilements attain Nirvana.” Dhammapada 126

"Here he rejoices, hereafter he rejoices. The doer of good rejoices in both worlds. He rejoices and exults, seeing the purity of his deeds.” Dhammapada 18 (Verse 19)

However, the case for good afterlife is undermined for those who do good in this life but remain miserable in this life.

"Even here he is happy, and after death he is happy - the one who has done good." Dhammapada 22 

Buddhism, especially in its earliest contemporary form (Theravāda), does not teach eternal heaven or hell. "Do not go upon what has been acquired by repeated hearing; nor upon tradition; nor upon rumor… But when you know for yourselves that, ‘These things are wholesome; these things are blameless; these things are praised by the wise; undertaken and observed, these things lead to benefit and happiness’ — then enter on and abide in them.". In the most common form of Buddhism today - Mahāyāna Buddhism, especially as practiced in East Asia (e.g., China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam) - the idea of liberation or rebirth in a "pure land" can involve faith in certain buddhas (like Amitābha), but this faith is not restricted by sectarian boundaries. Even here, the emphasis is more on sincere intent, compassion, and wisdom than institutional identity. A well-known Mahāyāna scripture, the Lotus Sutra (Saddharma Puṇḍarīka Sūtra), expresses this openness clearly:> "All beings, whether they have faith or not, whether they practice this teaching or not, whether they slander it or praise it - all shall eventually attain Buddhahood." - Lotus Sutra, Chapter 2