Executive summary: Drawing from large-scale, high-quality studies, this evidence-based analysis argues that mental health is the most important modifiable factor for overall well-being, followed by the quality of romantic relationships—with strong emotional bonds, commitment, and low conflict predicting both happiness and stability—while physical health and income play smaller roles and compatibility remains hard to predict.

Key points:

1. Mental health is the strongest modifiable predictor of well-being, especially for life satisfaction and likely for affective (emotional) well-being, according to Clark et al. (2018) and broader clinical research.
2. High-quality romantic relationships are the next most influential factor, with satisfaction, perceived commitment, and low conflict being the best predictors of emotional well-being and relationship longevity (Joel et al., 2020; Hudson et al., 2020).
3. Sexual history—specifically having 9+ premarital sexual partners—strongly predicts divorce risk, with an effect size comparable to love and commitment (Smith & Wolfinger, 2023).
4. Breakups cause long-lasting emotional harm, with no evidence of full hedonic adaptation (Kettlewell et al., 2020), while marriage offers only a short-term emotional boost.
5. Predicting compatibility remains elusive, as personality and demographic traits add little beyond how someone perceives their relationship; models explain limited variance and fail to predict changes over time (Joel et al., 2020).
6. Other factors like physical health, income, and employment contribute modestly to well-being, while education and criminal history have minimal effects; many life events show only temporary emotional impact or modest cognitive effects.

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