Last year, we (Czech priorities) have done a foresight study on global megatrends for the Czech government, where we worked with the 2040-50 horizon. The outcomes are meant to provide a broad framework for national R&I funding. We applied some innovations such as a forecasting tournament as a wider participatory input. Here is the website and ENG version of the results and methodology. Happy to chat, if it´d be useful.
[Question]
Does any EA org try do a wholistic prediction of global trends 20 years out?
I was born at the end of the cold war, unaware of the danger we were emerging from. Duck and cover drills (as if those could protect schoolchildren from a nuclear blast) were a curiosity of the past.
The farmer-poet Wendell Berry, who wrote about the dread of nuclear war, died recently. From his 1968 “The peace of wild things”:
When despair for the world grows in me
and I wake in the night at the least...
Summary
Over the course of a year, the Fieldshaper program develops you into a field-leading grantmaker. You’ll steward $1,000,000 in grant capital, receive a $125,000 annual stipend, and deploy that capital within a sub-field of one of three key areas (farmed animals, global health, or philanthropic infrastructure); building the track record to become a grantmaker who can shape a field.
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* Title: Grantmak...
This would be something similar to the Global Trends report produced by the National Intelligence Council. It seems like something like this would be useful for cause prioritization in the medium term.
Last year, we (Czech priorities) have done a foresight study on global megatrends for the Czech government, where we worked with the 2040-50 horizon. The outcomes are meant to provide a broad framework for national R&I funding. We applied some innovations such as a forecasting tournament as a wider participatory input. Here is the website and ENG version of the results and methodology. Happy to chat, if it´d be useful.