Based on the readings in previous chapters, which global problems do you think are most pressing and why? (Remember, experts are quite uncertain about this question!)

Biorisks: Whether through a bioweapon, a lab leak, or a naturally occurring pandemic, I believe that dangerous microorganisms that spread globally and cause immense amounts of suffering and deaths are very plausible (since it has already happened and we're increasing the potential for bioweapons and lab leaks as technology progresses)

Nuclear War: Given the constant tension in international relations that seems to permeate History and the fact that these nuclear warheads already exist and can easily be deployed, it would not be a surprise if a full nuclear war between two nations would eventually unfold and lead to hundreds of millions of deaths, and many more injured people (let alone a potentially catastrophic Nuclear Winter).

Global poverty: Over 4,000,000,000 people (±50% of the world population) have to survive daily on less resources than $6.7 dollars can buy in the US (for comparison, the US poverty line is below $37.23). Poverty seems to be strongly correlated with a lower quality of life in all relevant domains (child mortality, life expectancy, access to healthcare, education, learning outcomes, life satisfaction). Just to connect to the other two problems above, global poverty would be worsened both in cases of pandemics or nuclear war that negatively impacts the world economy.

Battery-caged hens: Billions of chickens are living possibly net negative lives every year, and their situation can be improved considerably by abolishing the use of battery cages, which seems a feasible intervention, given that many companies have already done it.

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What are your 3-5 biggest uncertainties about the above?

Uncertainties about nuclear war: What is the chance that we'll have a nuclear war that poses existential risk? What can be done to lower the risk? Some people have argued that the existence of nuclear weapons is part of the cause for why the world has been more peaceful in the last decades, compared to before. If this is true, then how does that change our relationship to the existence of nuclear weapons?

Uncertainties about global poverty: Would it be solved just by redistributing the world's wealth, or would that not be enough? What is the risk that, by making people richer, the environmental destruction increases to a point of no return?

Uncertainties about battery-caged hens: How much better are their lives outside the cage? If still net negative, what's the chance that the abolition of cages would lead to "moral licensing", i.e., society feeling that we don't need to abolish factory-farmed hens, because they are already cage-free?

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What could you do over the next few weeks to explore those uncertainties? 

Do more reading! :-)

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What aptitudes are you most interested in exploring or using next? You might want to think about what you’re unusually good at, what activities make you feel energized, and what skills seem especially useful for addressing the problems you listed above.

I'm particularly interested in mathematical modeling and statistics, which seem very useful tools for evaluating scientific evidence, which, in turn, helps to shed light on most of these questions and uncertainties.

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How could you begin to test out those aptitudes over the next few weeks?

I'll continue my studies of mathematics and statistics, as planned :-)

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While you’re figuring out your uncertainties, are there any actions to improve the world that you want to do now? 
Yes! I plan to create a one-hour presentation about some of the world's biggest problems and how to address them to some friends of mine (I plan to do one-on-one meetings) who have the resources and the desire to have a positive impact on the world, but might not have thought about it.
I also plan to contact the one-on-one 80,000 Hours mentorship some time this year.

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Thank you all for striving to make the world a better place!

1. Based on the readings in previous sessions, which global problems do you think are most pressing and why? (Remember, experts are quite uncertain about this question!)

Artificial Intelligence: A High-Stakes Global Challenge

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly evolving, with advancements being made at an unprecedented pace. Despite its potential to revolutionize industries, improve efficiency, and solve complex problems, AI remains largely unregulated, raising ethical and safety concerns. AI's scalability allows it to influence nearly every aspect of human life, from healthcare and finance to warfare and governance. However, this immense power also comes with risks. The lack of oversight increases the chances of AI being misused, reinforcing biases, exacerbating inequality, and even posing security threats. Moreover, AI safety is a neglected area of research, with far less investment in risk mitigation compared to AI development. If left unchecked, the rapid deployment of advanced AI systems could lead to unintended consequences, including job displacement, loss of human autonomy, and in extreme scenarios, existential risks where AI systems surpass human control

Factory Farming: A Growing Ethical and Environmental Crisis

As the global human population continues to rise, so does the demand for food, particularly protein sources such as meat, eggs, and dairy. With limited land available for traditional farming, industrialized factory farming has become the dominant method of production. However, this shift comes at a significant cost to animal welfare, public health, and the environment.

Factory farming prioritizes efficiency and profit, often at the expense of the animals it exploits. Millions of animals are confined in overcrowded, stressful, and unsanitary conditions, deprived of natural behaviors, and subjected to inhumane treatment. Beyond ethical concerns, intensive animal agriculture contributes to environmental degradation, including deforestation, water pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, it increases the risk of zoonotic disease outbreaks and antibiotic resistance, posing threats to both human and animal populations.

Yet, all lives human and non-human are intrinsically valuable. As we strive to meet global food demands, we must prioritize ethical, sustainable, and humane solutions, such as improving welfare standards, investing in plant-based and alternative proteins, and promoting responsible consumption. The future of food production must balance human needs with compassion and respect for all living beings.

Existential Risks: Humanity’s Greatest but Most Neglected Threats

The world faces numerous existential risks and catastrophic events that could wipe out humanity or permanently derail civilization. These risks range from nuclear war, engineered pandemics, and runaway artificial intelligence to climate collapse and asteroid impacts. Despite their potentially devastating consequences, they remain critically underfunded and understudied, with only a handful of experts and organizations dedicated to mitigating them.

Many of these risks are not just theoretical but have a significant probability of occurring within this century. Advancements in technology, geopolitical tensions, and environmental degradation are accelerating some of these threats, making proactive prevention more urgent than ever. Yet, governments, institutions, and society at large often prioritize short-term concerns over long-term survival. If we fail to take these threats seriously, we risk losing everything, not just human civilization, but the potential future of life on Earth.

2. What are your 3-5 biggest uncertainties about the above?

Artificial intelligence 

1. How soon will AI reach a point where it poses a serious existential risk?

2. Will AI safety research advance quickly enough to keep up with AI development?

3. Can governments and institutions create effective regulations without stifling innovation

4. How will societies adapt to mass automation, and will economic inequality worsen?

5. Will AI lead to an arms race between nations, and can international agreements prevent misuse?

6. If AI surpasses human intelligence, will we be able to maintain control over it, or will it act unpredictably?

Factory farming 

1. How feasible is a large-scale transition to plant-based and alternative proteins, especially in low- and middle-income countries where animal products are a key part of diets and livelihoods?

2. Will innovations like lab-grown meat and plant-based proteins become affordable and widely accepted by consumers in time to significantly reduce factory farming?

3. How can global cooperation be achieved to standardize animal welfare laws across different countries?

4. What support systems will be necessary to help farmers transition to more sustainable practices without losing their income?

5. Will public perception of animal welfare and sustainability issues shift significantly enough to drive changes in consumer behavior?

6. Will technological solutions like precision fermentation, cultured meat, or genetically modified animals improve sustainability without introducing new ethical or environmental risks?

Existential risks

1. Some existential risks are hard to quantify, how likely are these risks to occur within this century, and which are most urgent?

2. Are we capable of designing robust safeguards against AI, pandemics, and geopolitical conflicts, or are some risks inherently uncontrollable

3. Can countries and institutions put aside differences to work on long-term survival, or will bureaucracy and self-interest hinder progress?

4. Will public opinion shift in time to demand serious action, or will these issues remain ignored until it's too late?

5. What are the existential threats we haven’t even considered yet, and how do we prepare for the unknown?

3.  What could you do over the next few weeks to explore those uncertainties? (For example, do more reading, talk things through with a friend, or write an EA Forum post on your key uncertainties to get feedback.)

Over the next few weeks, I plan to explore my key uncertainties through a combination of reading, writing, and discussions:

1. Deepening My Knowledge:  I will read more on effective altruism, existential risks, AI safety, and factory farming to better understand the complexities of these issues.

2. Engaging with the EA Community: I will write posts on the EA Forum to articulate my uncertainties and seek feedback from experienced members.

3. Discussing with Peers: I will have conversations with knowledgeable friends, mentors, or EA community members to challenge my assumptions and gain new perspectives.

4. Tracking My Thoughts:  I will take structured notes on key insights, open questions, and areas where my views evolve, helping me refine my thinking over time.

4. What aptitudes are you most interested in exploring or using next? You might want to think about what you’re unusually good at, what activities make you feel energized, and what skills seem especially useful for addressing the problems you listed above.

1. Conceptual and empirical research on core longtermist topics aptitudes

2. Entrepreneur aptitude

3. Community building aptitudes

4. Academia

    

5. How could you begin to test out those aptitudes over the next few weeks?

Over the next few weeks, I plan to start writing and sharing posts on Effective Altruism (EA), exploring various topics that interest me. This will help me develop my writing and critical thinking skills while also refining my niche. Additionally, I am actively building a career in high-impact research, leveraging my skills and background to contribute meaningfully to this field.  Unless otherwise as a veterinarian, I intend to focus on addressing factory farming, examining its ethical, environmental, and public health implications. Through writing, research, and engagement with relevant communities, I hope to deepen my expertise, connect with like-minded individuals, and identify actionable solutions to improve animal welfare in industrial agriculture.

6. While you’re figuring out your uncertainties, are there any actions to improve the world that you want to do now? (E.g. make a donation, or do things that make it more likely that you remember to apply these ideas in your life (like signing up for newsletters, committing to discuss your career with a friend, or making a task to apply for high-impact jobs/internships).

I plan to take several concrete steps to improve the world while refining my understanding of high-impact work:

1. Applying for High-Impact Jobs : I will actively seek job opportunities that align with effective altruism principles, allowing me to contribute meaningfully to global challenges.

2. Attending EA Conferences: Engaging with the Effective Altruism community through general conferences will help me learn from experts, expand my network, and refine my approach to making a difference.

3. Pursuing High-Impact Research:  Since research is one of my strengths, I am exploring ways to initiate or contribute to research projects that address pressing global issues.

4. Reading The Precipice: This book will deepen my understanding of existential risks and long-termist thinking, providing valuable insights into how I can contribute effectively.

5. Taking the In-Depth EA Course:  Enrolling in this course will help me systematically explore EA principles, sharpen my decision-making skills, and develop a more structured approach to doing good.

1. The causes I feel are the most important are factory farming, wild animal suffering and S-risks (these, I believe, cause or have the potential to cause the most suffering while being hugely neglected).

2. Key uncertainty: The tractability of working on wild animal suffering seems to be a huge problem.

3. What to do about the uncertainty: Read up on what is already being done (Arthropoda foundation, Wild Animal Initiative) and what the prospects are.

4. Aptitudes to explore: community building, organization running/boosting, supporting roles.

5. Keep volunteering for an effective organization while also recruiting new people into EA in free time; learn how to communicate ideas better.

6. I'm donating monthly to effective charities, volunteering my skills and engaging with the community.

For me, though not directly discussed in reading, the staggering gaps in economy, and the poorly developed infrastructure for health and education, even in developed countries, is poorly managed and often mulled over in beauacracy far too much to make any signficant change. Something more in the readings, and something I was knowledgeable, but complicit in, was factory farming. As for full blown ex-risks, I would have to say the re-growing possibility of a nuclear fallout and the threat of bio-warfare. I want to say AI Safety as well, but from what I've seen, the AI bubble is prone to burst fantastically before we get that far. (Hopefully). Climate change is another great fear of mine, but that project focus is well accounted for.

Top 3? That would have to be the poor quality of food/health in many world areas (as it is getting better, but much too slowly), and likewise the two ex-risks I've written of (I fear escalation of existing conflicts).

Most likely, read more, but definitely start conversation with others to give me that "initial push" or recommendations.

For me, I do really enjoy research and I'm fairly good at computational mathematics (not so good at pure math). I do also find myself intrigued by philosophical questions, yet I feel this could be a supplement rather than my career goals.

I already can! I've joined one laboratory at my college, and I can more than likely join more over the next few years. I could also hazard to research more staff to talk to that focus on issues (immunology and neuro) that are of great interest to me. I will also be taking courses on ecology to see if that's a good avenue for my skills.

For what I'd like to do, I'd like to build a community of fellow future and current PhDs or researchers and subscribe to more journals that follow biological concepts. To pull in that philosophical interest, I can start reading more on theory that posits effective ways to make change.

1. I think Climate Change,AI and biotechnology and Biweapon posses  a bigger risk. The reason is because most of the problems are human made and we think that maybe the risks wont be that higher but in the long run we get ffected big time

   1. For AI, we are not 100% sure of what it is capable of.

   2. We might be aware of how to mitigate climate crises but we are waiting for the problem instead of solving the root cause. 

2. I will do more research and  reading on the same.

   I can give back to the community by organizing charity events where we donate foods,clothes , sanitary pproducts and medicine

poverty, leadership and environmental issues,are the top issues,on my global listing,which I feel should be looked into,as the rate of poverty and inequalities,could be related to economic issues,which have continually been at the expense of one benefiting more than the other,and that of leadership,linked to political issues,which spans across local and international levels,where diplomacy, alongside international relations are charted for several reasons,which posits several division, despite a common course,that binds us all as humans.finally,the environmental issues,consist of several outcomes, which climate change is incorporated along,and has made people, battling for several reasons ,as the quest for much better environmental structure, cutting across several communities within the globe, cannot be overemphasized. my biggest uncertainty with respect to the above outcomes is that,can there be fairness,on the global stage for this issues? and towards exploring this uncertainties,I would engage in further research and other engagements, towards unraveling measures,which will help curb the situations,as I would continue with my community and social engagement,which it's ongoing, towards improving the lots of our communities,in relation to global engagements and partnerships, which E .A, is a platform, towards attaining that,and I really appreciate, and seek working with this network ( the e.a community, in relation to other global partners), towards improving our communities and the world at large.