Epistemic status: Speculation from two decently informed advocates armed with anecdata.
Note on process: After having some version of this conversation several times and saying, “we should probably write about this publicly,” we took the less heroic route: we recorded one of our conversations, fed the transcript into an LLM, and then substantially revised the structure, substance, and framing ourselves. We will not be sharing the transcript, as it is in...
TLDR: Take the population ethics quiz here: https://mdickens.me/pop-ethics/
Population ethics is an oft-overlooked subfield within ethics. Many people hold views that they don't realize contradict each other, or that have strange implications that they wouldn't endorse if they thought about it more.
Not just that—population ethics is a BIG DEAL. A lot of ethical decisions hinge on how you think about changes in future populations....
Headline finding: I audited 17 AI Safety Talent programmes. Zero of 17 have published any comparison group, rejected-applicant follow-up, matched control or randomisation. Not one. Every programme that mentions a counterfactual does it by asking participants to self-report.
Background
At least $70 million...
I joined the SHIPs (https://www.notion.so/SHIPs-Student-led-High-Impact-Projects-035514f7b8594205b16e3e3a9cf6e736) program and came up with a few project ideas that I think are worth pursuing, but I don't have the background to do them effectively. The following are some of my ideas that I encourage others to consider working on:
Default Advocacy: Advocating (via sending emails and/or calling) to people of influence to set the altruistic option as the default (to take advantage of the default effect since people are less likely to opt in/out of something if it requires effort). Examples of this could include have all citizens be organ donors by default, have vegetarian/vegan meals the default option provided, installing energy efficient equipment as the default in buildings, etc.
Influence Celebrities to Donate Effectively: The goal of this project is to convince celebrities and other wealthy and/or highly influential people to donate to effective charities. Since they have a vast amount of wealth, the scale of possible donations is quite large. In addition, their influence my inspire their followers to also give more effectively, thereby magnifying the impact of this project. There currently exists High Impact Athletes (https://highimpactathletes.org/athletes), but there is definitely more room to grow this concept to other celebrities such as movie/TV stars, musical artists, business moguls, politicians, etc.
Impact of Switching Protein Subsidies: Research the pros and cons of the US government switching its subsidies from conventional meat agriculture to alternative protein agriculture. Create a detailed report highlighting these benefits (and drawbacks). Ideally, this report could be given to a politician as the basis for a policy/bill to switch subsidies from conventional meat agriculture to alternative protein agriculture.
Other projects ideas from the SHIPs program can be found below: https://airtable.com/shrEGsUnvXNnL8k8V/tblTdppN872IArKIR https://airtable.com/shrCXtRpCW1HxxafC/tblugqOktQp7zzxrm