This sequence includes an interactive exercise. You might find it interesting, but don't feel obligated to complete it.
Every day, each of us makes judgments about the future in the face of uncertainty. Some of these judgments can have a huge impact on our lives, so it’s really important that we make them as accurately as possible.
But what can you do if you have limited information about the future? In this exercise, you will practice making predictions, with the goal of honing your ability to make accurate judgments in uncertain situations.
The aim of the exercise is to become more “well-calibrated”. This means that when you say you’re 50% confident, you’re right about 50% of the time; when you say you're 90% confident, you're right about 90% of the time; and so on.
The app you’ll use contains thousands of questions — enough for many hours of calibration training. The app will measure how accurate your predictions are and chart your improvement over time. Nobody is perfectly calibrated; in fact, most of us are overconfident. But various studies show that this kind of training can quickly improve the accuracy of your predictions.
Often, we can’t easily "check the answers" to the questions life presents us with; most of our real-life forecasting involves complex events with outcomes that are difficult to judge. The Calibrate Your Judgement tool helps you practice on simpler situations where the answer is known, and gives immediate feedback to help you improve.