Next week for The 80,000 Hours Podcast I'm interviewing Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) on the topic of what the effective altruism community gets wrong/right about nuclear weapons & security.
What should I ask him?
Note he said this in a recent episode of his show:
By the way we have a second problem that arises which I think the book 'Wizards of Armageddon' helps explain: this is why our field can't get any money.
Because it's extremely hard to explain to people who are not already deep in this field how these deterrence concepts work because they don't get it.
I mean, if you look at any of the work that the EA community does on nuclear risk... It's as misguided as the Strategic Air Command's original, you know, approach to nuclear weapons.
And you would need an entire RAND-size outreach effort... I mean some people have tried to do this. If you look at Peter Scoblic — who I think is fundamentally a member of that community — he wrote a really nice piece responding to some of the not-great effective altruism assessments of nuclear risk in Ukraine.
So I don't want to criticise the entire community.
But I experienced this at a cocktail party. Once I start talking about nuclear weapons and deterrence if they don't do this stuff full time the popular ideas they have about it...
Well first off they might be super bored.
But if they're willing to listen the popular ideas they have about it are so misguided that it becomes impossible to make enough progress in a reasonable time. And that's death when you're asking someone to write you a big cheque. That's much harder than "Hi I want to buy some mosquito nets to reduce malaria deaths".
That's really straightforward. But this... this is really complex.
Well, you could start by asking him to dial back the ego chest puffing.
Next, you could ask him to share the evidence that any amount of activism and expert analysis will ever liberate us from the nuclear threat.
You might ask him to comment on the claim (mine) that nothing meaningful is likely to happen on nuclear weapons until after the next detonation, because human beings are not very good at learning in the abstract.
You could ask him what role nuclear weapons activists should be preparing to play after the next detonation, when conscious raising is no longer necessary.
You could ask him to reflect on the source of nuclear weapons and all other technological threats, an ever accelerating knowledge explosion.
You could ask him to help us identify thinkers who understand and can articulate from a position of cultural authority that focusing on particular technological threats one by one by one is a loser's game, because the knowledge explosion will generate new threats faster than we can address the existing threats. Evidence: Seventy years later, no meaningful progress on nuclear weapons.
You could ask him whether, in his opinion, does it make sense to give humanity ever more, ever larger powers, at an ever accelerating rate, given that, as a culture, we've almost totally lost interest in the existential threat presented by 1940's technology?