A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
I’ve been feeling pretty shaken since the METR report about the Hugging Face incident came out last week. Over the weekend, I wrote up some thoughts on how lonely the AI situation sometimes feels to me. It’s more personal than what I’d usually share publicly, but I thought I’d post it here in case it resonates with anyone else.
I’m very grateful to the man...
TL;DR: Kairos has raised $50 million from Coefficient Giving for two years of funding, one of the largest commitments they’ve made towards AI safety fieldbuilding to date. We’re using this to make an ambitious push for growing Kairos, broadening our portfolio of talent infrastructure projects and incubating new organizations. We’ve doubled in size in the last six mon...
It is unusual for a community as small as rationalism to have produced multiple instances of cult-like groups. And while this particular group is technically opposed to mainstream rationalism, they are still knee deep in rationalist epistemology (justifying extreme acts with "timeless decision theory" and so on). Something about the epistemics or community of rationalism is probably making these types of incidences more likely.
As long as EA is associated with rationalism, expect to continue getting second order splashback from these kind of incidences.
I don't think rationalism is that small a subculture in the Bay at this point, and the Bay Area rate of cult creation has historically been pretty high since the 1960s at least. Watching Slimepriestess' interview (linked in the LW thread comments), my impression is that the Zizians' beliefs and actions stemmed from a fusion of rationalist/EA beliefs, far-left anarchist politics, and general Bay Area looniness.