Alice is trying to maximize the impact of her career. She is deciding between biosecurity research and building the effective altruism community (meta-EA). As far as she can tell, her fit is about the same for both paths.
She attempts to decide between them by zooming out. What cause has a higher impact? Which one is more neglected? Which cause is more tractable?
These are all useful questions to ask. However, they are very abstract. There is another set of questions that Alice is likely to find very useful:
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If I chose meta-EA as my career path, what, specifically, would I be doing?
- At which organization would I work?
- What would I do at that organization?
- Would I plan events?
- Which events?
- What would the goals of those events be?
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If I chose biosecurity, what, specifically, would I be doing?
- Would I get a Ph.D.?
- If so, where?
- Who would be my advisor?
- What would the topic of my thesis be?
- What lines of research would I be pursuing?
It doesn't matter whether meta-EA is better than biosecurity research in general; what matters is whether biosecurity research is better than meta-EA for Alice. An analysis of Alice's individual impact screens off any analysis of average impact. (Of course, the impact of the specific things she would be doing is informed by an average impact analysis.)
Being specific about your career is very difficult. This is a feature. If you can't tell a plausible story for why the work you would do as a biosecurity researcher is impactful, you don't know enough about being a biosecurity researcher. One example of such a story is: "I would work at X research group studying ways to use lasers to neutralize viral pathogens, developing technology that would allow future pandemics to be quickly stamped out without waiting for the development of vaccines." If you can't construct a story of similar detail for yourself, you probably do not know what biosecurity researchers do.
I often see people think about their careers from the perspective of abstract cause prioritization. Besides such broad analysis, they should construct specific narratives linking potential career paths to impact. Jerry Cleaver: "What does you in is not failure to apply some high-level, intricate, complicated technique. It's overlooking the basics. Not keeping your eye on the ball."
You raised an important point that seems to me frequently overlooked. This is also one of the reasons why giving career advice is hard - there is limited amount of advice that can be given generally and much of the work is hidden in going through the specific options the advisee has.
One thing that could take this even further is to address how these two - the general cause area and specific individual considerations - play together. Overlooking cause area considerations entirely would be wrong, obviously.
The way I see it is that I should start with general considerations about cause areas and about my skills, which will help me discover where to start looking. Then I can start making the options more specific, starting with the most promising cause area where I have a chance to succeed. If I don't find anything promising, I can dig deeper or move to the second most promising area, etc.
One counterargument to this would be the risk that (if overemphasizing general considerations) I can get exhausted along the way and give up, while focusing more on what seems available and specific can help me find initial success earlier and motivate me to look further.
I wonder what are your thoughts on how the general and specific play together.