Hi, I've been interested in EA for years, but I'm not a heavyhitter. I'm expecting to give only dozens of thousands of dollars during my life.
That said, I have a problem and I'd like some advice on how to solve it: I don't know whether to focus on short-term organizations like Animal Charity Evaluators and Givewell or long-term organizations like Machine Intelligence Research Institute, Center for Reducing Suffering (CRS), Center on Long-term Risk (CLR), Long-term Future Fund, Clean Air Task Force and so on. It feels like long-term organizations are a huge gamble, and if they don't achieve their goals, I will feel like I've wasted my money. On the other hand, short-term organizations don't really focus on the big picture and it's uncertain whether their actions will reliably reduce the amount of suffering in the universe when taking into account the long-term future like how CRS or CLR claim to do. What do you think?
Thank you for taking the time to answer my question. What you said makes a lot of sense, but I just feel that the future is inherently unpredictable and I don't think I can handle the risk factor so much.