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Crossposted to Less Wrong
‘Like most of life’s dangers, the dangers of artificial intelligence are not easily identified from the armchair.’
J Dmitri Gallow
Epistemic status
I’m not an expert in this field, and herein I make some sweeping generalisations educated guesses about the overall...
With the AI windfall, mental health may be taken increasingly seriously by mainstream EA. There’s increasingly room to explore the cause area and answer some of the biggest uncertainties; at the same time, costs of the most effective interventions are continuing to fall. StrongMinds is now treating for ~$35, about a third of GiveWell’s best guess from a few years ago, and is expected to...
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The problem with answering this question is that it's very difficult to know what would have happened if some person did not exist. Some reasoning among similar lines can be found here.
This section from 80,000 hours career guide might also be relevant. I should note that a recent EA forum post questions whether Stanislav Petrov made the difference that 80,000 hours assume here. Some other people who plausibly saved many lives include Louis Pasteur, Maurice Hilleman, and Norman Borlaug. But increasing human population has many indirect effects and it's very difficult to evaluate them.