A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
I’ve been feeling pretty shaken since the METR report about the Hugging Face incident came out last week. Over the weekend, I wrote up some thoughts on how lonely the AI situation sometimes feels to me. It’s more personal than what I’d usually share publicly, but I thought I’d post it here in case it resonates with anyone else.
I’m very grateful to the man...
TL;DR: Kairos has raised $50 million from Coefficient Giving for two years of funding, one of the largest commitments they’ve made towards AI safety fieldbuilding to date. We’re using this to make an ambitious push for growing Kairos, broadening our portfolio of talent infrastructure projects and incubating new organizations. We’ve doubled in size in the last six mon...
The problem with answering this question is that it's very difficult to know what would have happened if some person did not exist. Some reasoning among similar lines can be found here.
This section from 80,000 hours career guide might also be relevant. I should note that a recent EA forum post questions whether Stanislav Petrov made the difference that 80,000 hours assume here. Some other people who plausibly saved many lives include Louis Pasteur, Maurice Hilleman, and Norman Borlaug. But increasing human population has many indirect effects and it's very difficult to evaluate them.