"Before 5 August 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?"

We would appreciate it if you could take a few moments and respond to a very brief survey on whether "Before 5 August 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?". This is a one-off “snapshot” estimate in support of an academic research project on forecasting low probability/high impact events. It is identical to a question already posted on Good Judgment Open, but allows you to use up to three decimal places when making your probability estimate.

The survey will remain open through 22 April 2022 at 6pm ET.

Here’s a direct link with the access code pre-populated, so all you have to do is click enter then submit your forecast:

Delphineo Survey

Thank you!