This is a linkpost for https://manifold.markets/SpencerGreenberg/will-projects-which-received-grants
It would be great to have more people involved in estimating the probability that FTX Future Fund grants end up getting clawed back (i.e., that projects that received such grants are asked to give the money back). This is a very important question for grant recipients right now, with a lot of murkiness around it - your forecasting help is appreciated!
If you have an opinion on the topic, would like to help make the forecasts more accurate, or are just interested in the question, here are three forecasting tournament pages related to the question:
I would like to request people share their models for what mechanisms or laws might actually allow this sort of thing to happen.
So far as I know from only basic research, clawbacks are the result of things like tax miscalculations, contract effects (excess profit made that then has to be divided as agreed upon), insurance fraud, etc. Unless a contract was signed or criminal connection is suspected, it seems highly unlikely to me.