This is a "pre-post" but just seeing if anyone had looked into trying to equate Global development objectives to ex-risk and long-termism before I try and write something up more formally..

The argument would be along the lines of "people as stomachs" vs "people as brains" (1), whereby the faster we can get people educated and countries into high income nation status, the lower the risk of global pandemics, major bio or nuclear terrorist attacks and the more AI safety risk researchers, among others.

I think there would be a metric which could look at this, by saying something along the lines of these ex-risk factors are influenced by GDP per capita income, and so therefore, increases in GDP per capita income lead to reduced ex-risk. Many assumptions would be needed, but a Drake style equation could be made.






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Hey there

I had a go with something very similar here:

I tried a kind of drake equation analysis and describe how it worked out in the post.

The post didn't take off in a huge way, but I still believe in the idea. Just needs someone to present it in the right angle!

Yeah, nice one, I agree, I think a lot about framing to get more engagement needed. I will try to have more of a think based on what you've written as well and let you know once I have a bit more of a framework, would be good to get your input!

I think key is showing a relation between GDP per capita/HDI and societal things which can exacerbate ex-risk. e.g. less chance of poor hygienic conditions in wet markets where pathogens can jump between species in Sweden than in DRC.

yep, would love to participate in any way that is helpful!

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