A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
I’ve been feeling pretty shaken since the METR report about the Hugging Face incident came out last week. Over the weekend, I wrote up some thoughts on how lonely the AI situation sometimes feels to me. It’s more personal than what I’d usually share publicly, but I thought I’d post it here in case it resonates with anyone else.
I’m very grateful to the man...
TL;DR: Kairos has raised $50 million from Coefficient Giving for two years of funding, one of the largest commitments they’ve made towards AI safety fieldbuilding to date. We’re using this to make an ambitious push for growing Kairos, broadening our portfolio of talent infrastructure projects and incubating new organizations. We’ve doubled in size in the last six mon...
If a Super-Intelligence, or superior beings do already exist and seek to maximize human flourishing, a lack of intervention may very well be the path that is taken. In which case maximizing for eternal beings who gratify themselves through purposefully pushing forward the greatest fight in history would be a means of getting there. If reality is in fact fractal, then the idea of a multi-celled organism competing for birthing rights could be a means of deciding who is birthed from here. While at first glance this idea may seem self-serving it proposes a game to the ego and survival mechanisms of the brain of selflessness maxing. That is to say, when coming across anything in life where one could do the good themselves or help someone do that good before them, the act of selflessness and maximizing for the organism would be the route which gains the most points on the good karma leaderboard. Thus this brain worms has great power in converting someone to a race of altruism to the scale of eternal fulfillment or eternal regret that is the same proposed matrix that held together society prior to modern surveillance systems existing.