An important post for both EAs and Non-EAs alike, as I hope it will help them understand where your intuition is reliable and where it's not. Without further ado, I'll quote from 80,000 Hours:

On the whole, we’d expect intuitive judgements to be trustworthy when:

  1. The environment is sufficiently regular that there are patterns which can be recognised through experience.
  1. The person making the judgement has enough experience in the environment to recognise these patterns.
  1. There’s enough quick, accurate feedback, that a person can learn from mistakes through experience.

And a final 4th condition from myself, which is:

  1. When the time to make a decision is short, or a situation where things are time-critical and you can't waste time.

I hope this is useful for people who want to know how much to trust their intuition, and in what situations where intuitions are reliable.

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