An important post for both EAs and Non-EAs alike, as I hope it will help them understand where your intuition is reliable and where it's not. Without further ado, I'll quote from 80,000 Hours:
On the whole, we’d expect intuitive judgements to be trustworthy when:
- The environment is sufficiently regular that there are patterns which can be recognised through experience.
- The person making the judgement has enough experience in the environment to recognise these patterns.
- There’s enough quick, accurate feedback, that a person can learn from mistakes through experience.
And a final 4th condition from myself, which is:
- When the time to make a decision is short, or a situation where things are time-critical and you can't waste time.
I hope this is useful for people who want to know how much to trust their intuition, and in what situations where intuitions are reliable.