There is currently no consensus on how difficult the AI alignment problem is. We have yet to encounter any real-world, in the wild instances of the most concerning threat models, like deceptive misalignment. However, there are compelling theoretical arguments which suggest these failures will arise eventually.
Will current alignment methods accidentally train deceptive, power-seeking AIs that appear aligned, or not? We must make decisions about which techniques to avoid and which are safe despite not having a clear answer to this question.
To this end, a year ago, we introduced the AI alignment difficulty scale, a framework for understanding the increasing challenges of aligning artificial intelligence systems with human values.
This follow-up article revisits our original scale, exploring how our understanding of alignment difficulty has evolved and what new insights we've gained. This article will explore three main themes that have emerged as central to our understanding:
- The Escalation of Alignment Challenges: We'll examine how alignment difficulties increase as we go up the scale, from simple reward hacking to complex scenarios involving deception and gradient hacking. Through concrete examples, we'll illustrate these shifting challenges and why they demand increasingly advanced solutions. These examples will illustrate what observations we should expect to see "in the wild" at different levels, which might change our minds about how easy or difficult alignment is.
- Dynamics Across the Difficulty Spectrum: We'll explore the factors that change as we progress up the scale, including the increasing difficulty of verifying alignment, the growing disconnect between alignment and capabilities research, and the critical question of which research efforts are net positive or negative in light of these challenges.
- Defining and Measuring Alignment Difficulty: We'll tackle the complex task of precisely defining "alignment difficulty," breaking down the technical, practical, and other factors that contribute to the alignment problem. This analysis will help us better understand the nature of the problem we're trying to solve and what factors contribute to it.
