It assumes that AGI will require new theoretical breakthroughs (which accords with my present view):
The model relies on the assumption that progress in AI relies on accumulating insights, fundamental advances in our understanding, that allow for improvements in capacity without increase in resources expended.
This choice makes an attempt to separate out the effects of true technological advancement from the effects of an increase in computing power devoted to a problem, both of which can increase the capacity of machine intelligence to solve complex problems. Computational power is an expensive, finite resource, and without a paradigm-shifting improvement in computing itself, precise allocation of that power alone will not be enough to continue advancing AI’s problem-solving capabilities.
Previous version here: http://mediangroup.org/insights