Results from the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament
In 2022, the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) ran the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT). Over the course of four months, 169 forecasters, including 80 superforecasters and 89 experts, forecasted on various questions related to existential and catastrophic risk. Forecasters moved through a four-stage deliberative process that was designed to incentivize them not only to make accurate predictions but also to provide persuasive rationales that boosted the predictive accuracy of others’ forecasts.
Forecasters stopped updating their forecasts on 31st October 2022, and are not currently updating on an ongoing basis. FRI plans to run future iterations of the tournament, and open up the questions more broadly for other forecasters.
This series presents posts discussing the tournament and its results. These posts expand on the results presented in the XPT report.