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Forecasting Research Institute

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Announcing ForecastBench, a new benchmark for AI and human forecasting abilities
Forecasting Research Institute
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Conditional Trees: Generating Informative Forecasting Questions (FRI) -- AI Risk Case Study
Forecasting Research Institute
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Results from an Adversarial Collaboration on AI Risk (FRI)
Forecasting Research Institute
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Input sought on next steps for the XPT (also, we're hiring!)
Forecasting Research Institute
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A selection of cross-cutting results from the XPT
Forecasting Research Institute
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What do XPT results tell us about biorisk?
Forecasting Research Institute
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What do XPT forecasts tell us about nuclear risk?
Forecasting Research Institute
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XPT forecasts on (some) Direct Approach model inputs
Forecasting Research Institute
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Summary of posts on XPT forecasts on AI risk and timelines
Forecasting Research Institute
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XPT forecasts on (some) biological anchors inputs
Forecasting Research Institute
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Results from the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament

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Announcing the Winners of the 2023 Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest
Forecasting Research Institute7
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We’re honored to have received a prize for our work on the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT)!

We’re in the process of extending this work and better connecting forecasts to policy decisionmaking. If you’re interested in working on this and our other projects, we wanted to mention that we’re currently hiring for full-time Research Analysts and Data Analysts. We’re also hiring for part-time Research Assistants.

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