FRI went further and quantitatively estimated how important each crux was - a great starting point towards an adversarially-collaborated synthesis.

And you can too! We evaluated cruxes on two axes: "value of information" (VOI) and "value of discrimination" (VOD). Essentially: VOI is how much someone expects to gain by finding out the answer to a given crux question (with respect to an ultimate question), and VOD is how much two people expect to converge on the ultimate question when they find out the answer to the crux question. 

There's a google sheets calculator, as well as an R library, which will be released on CRAN at some point.

Hi @Vasco Gril, thanks for the question. That is the standard deviation in percentage points. The distribution is decidedly un-Gaussian so the standard deviation is a little misleading.

We limited the y axis range on the box-and-dot plots like that one on page 272 -- they're all truncated at the 95th percentile of tournament participants + a 5% cushion (footnote on page 18) -- so the max for Stage 1 for supers was actually 21.9%.

Here are a couple more summary stats for the superforecasters, for the 2030 question. The raw data are available here if you want to explore in more detail!

  stage count   mean    sd   min  median   max
  <int> <int>  <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>   <dbl> <dbl>
1     1    88 0.510  2.60      0 0.0001   21.9
2     2    57 0.378  1.74      0 0.0001   12  
3     3    16 0.0392 0.125     0 0.00075   0.5
4     4    69 0.180  1.20      0 0.0001   10  

Very excited that you're doing this. The reading and listening list looks terrific. Here are a few suggestions, which you can take or leave! 

Some perspectives from sociology and related fields:

• Tacit Knowledge, Weapons Design, and the Uninvention of Nuclear Weapons. Donald MacKenzie and Graham Spinardi, 1995. (This is essential reading IMO. Extremely well-written, and a perspective I hadn't read anywhere else. I think about it a lot.)
• From 'Inherently Safe' to 'Proliferation Resistant': New Perspectives on Reactor Designs. Sonja D. Schmid, 2021.
• Reimagining Nuclear Engineering. Aditi Verma and Denia Djokic, 2021.
• From Accountants to Detectives: How Nuclear Safeguards Inspectors Make Knowledge at the IAEA. Anna Weichselbraun, 2020.

And a moving piece from the New Yorker (accounts from Hiroshima survivors), and Eisenhower's speech he gave to the UN General Assembly:

• Hiroshima. John Hersey. New Yorker, 1946.
• Eisenhower's "Atoms for Peace" speech. 1953. (Recording.)