Prediction markets

Prediction markets (also known as information markets and idea futures) are markets for trading contracts about future events.

Further reading

Hanson, Robin (1995) Could gambling save science? Encouraging an honest consensus, Social Epistemology, vol. 9, pp. 3–33.

Lagerros, Jacob & Nuño Sempere (2021) Database of prediction markets, Google Sheets.

Sempere, Nuño, Misha Yagudin & Eli Lifland (2021) Prediction markets in the corporate setting, Effective Altruism Forum, December 31.

Related entries

institutional decision-making | model uncertainty | forecasting | value of information | Robin Hanson