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What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?

Here is a Wikipedia reference:

The Lindy effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy. Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases with time.

Please Take the 2020 EA Survey

Well, I am far from expert, but my understanding is that differential privacy  operates on queries as opposed to individual datapoints. But there are tools s.a. randomized response which will provide plausible deniability to individual responses.

Thoughts on whether we're living at the most influential time in history

re: "This post has a lot of very small numbers in it. I might have missed a zero or two somewhere."

Hey Buck, consider using scientific notation instead of decimal one: "0.00000009%" is hard to read and 9e-10 is less prone to typos.

Introducing LEEP: Lead Exposure Elimination Project

I am curious about which other countries you identified as promising?

Listing them might be beneficial, as I can imagine that finding an experienced and well-connected candidate for a target location can change the outcome of cost-effectiveness calculation by increasing tractability. On other hand, good candidates might not be hard to find or be especially likely discovered via the EA network.

Singapore’s Technical AI Alignment Research Career Guide

This forecast suggests that extreme reputational risks are non-negligible.

Singapore’s Technical AI Alignment Research Career Guide

Working for SenseTime might be associated with reputational risks, according to FT:

The US blacklisted Megvii and SenseTime in October, along with voice recognition company iFlytek and AI unicorn Yitu, accusing the companies of aiding the “repression, mass arbitrary detention and high-technology surveillance” in the western Chinese region of Xinjiang.

At the same time, someone working for them might provide our community with cultural knowledge relevant to surveillance and robust totalitarianism.

Linch's Shortform

I think it is useful to separately deal with the parts of a disturbing event over which you have an internal or external locus of control. Let's take a look at riots:

  • An external part is them happening in your country. External locus of control means that you need to accept the situation. Consider looking into Stoic literature and exercises (say, negative visualizations) to come to peace with that possibility.
  • An internal part is being exposed to dangers associated with them. Internal locus of control means that you can take action to mitigate the risks. Consider having a plan to temporarily move to a likely peaceful area within your country or to another county.
AMA: Markus Anderljung (PM at GovAI, FHI)

Any insights into what constitutes good research management on the levels of (a) a facilitator helping a lab to succeed, and (b) an individual researcher managing himself (and occasional collaborators)?

The case for building more and better epistemic institutions in the effective altruism community

Roam Research is

> starting a fellowship program where we are giving grants to researchers to explore the space of Tools for Thought, Collective Intelligence, Augmenting The Human Intellect.

They recently raised $9M at a $200M seed evaluation and previously received two grants from EA LTFF.

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