Thank you! We agree and [...], so hopefully, it's more informative and is not about edge cases of Turing Test passing.

We chose to use an imperfect definition and indicated to forecasters that they should interpret the definition not “as is” but “in spirit” to avoid annoying edge cases.

I've preregistered a bunch of soft expectations about the next generation of LLMs and encouraged others in the group to do the same. But I don't intend to share mine on the Forum. I haven't written down my year-by-year expectations with a reasonable amount of detail yet.

The person in charge of the program should be unusually productive/work long hours/etc. because otherwise, they would lack the mindset,  tacit knowledge, and intuitions that go into having an environment optimized for productivity. E.g.,  most people undervalue the time and time of others and hence significantly underinvest in time-saving/convenience/etc. stuff at work.

(Sorry if mentioned above; haven't read the post.)

The point was that there is a non-negligible probability that EA will end up negative.

If you think that movement building is effective in supporting the EA movement, you need to think that the EA movement is negative. I honestly can't see how you can be very confident in the latter. Skrewing things up is easy; unintentionally messing up AI/LTF stuff seems easy and given high-stakes causing massive amounts of harm is an option (it's not an uncommon belief that FLI's Puerto Rico conferences turned out negatively, for example).

I read it, not as a list of good actors doing bad things. But as a list of idealistic actors [at least in public perception] not living up to their own standards [standards the public ascribes to them].

Looking back on my upvotes, a surprisingly few great posts this year (< 10 if not ~5). Don't have a sense of how things were last year.

Thanks, I wasn't aware of some of these outside my cause areas/focus/scope of concern. Very nice to see others succeeding/progressing!

Given how much things are going on in EA these days (I can't keep up even with the forum) might be good to have this as a quarterly thread/post and maybe invite others to celebrate their successes in the comments.

If Global Health Emergency is meant to mean public health emergency of international concern , then the base rate is roughly 45% = 7 / 15.5: declared 7 times, while the appropriate regulation come into force in mid-2007.

Consider suggesting it to https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H7xWzvwvkyywDAEkL/creating-a-database-for-base-rates