Researcher @ Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute
7408Joined Nov 2018


I do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). 

I write a Forecasting Newsletter, and have programmed, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms. I also generally enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs.

I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

Otherwise, I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. A good fraction of my research is available either on the EA Forum or backed-up on, which also hosts my more casual personal blog.

I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term." After that, I joined QURI and spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship.

Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.


Vantage Points
Estimating value
Forecasting Newsletter


Topic Contributions

Thanks, though your complement seems oddly double-sided against the rest of the forum's content

In this squiggle you use "ableToEscapeBefore = 0.5"

I was just using 0.5 as a default value. In our March estimate, we were at 0.75, a critic was at 0.3; Zvi Moskovitz was at solomonic 0.5. This time this wasn't really the focus of our estimate, because I was already giving forecasters many questions to estimate, and the situation for that sub-estimate doesn't seem to have been changed as much.

New update to the "utilitarianismverse" just dropped: <>

I also noticed that your definition of the "clip" function was fairly inefficient. If you use the built-in "truncate" function instead,  time is shaved to 15 seconds in the latest version.

clip(dist, low, high) = truncate(dist, low, high)

EA as a whole benefits from me being a much bigger account

Disagree. Maybe given some function of "innate talent", it makes sense to put more eggs on one basket. has a feature which does this; it's an eye on the bottom right.

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