Co-founder of Arb, an AI / forecasting / etc consultancy. Doing a technical AI PhD.
Conflicts of interest: ESPR, EPSRC, Emergent Ventures, OpenPhil, Infrastructure Fund, Alvea.
It's not a separate approach, the non-theory agendas and even some of the theory agendas have their own answers to these questions. I can tell you that almost everyone besides CoEms and OAA are targeting NNs though.
excellent, thanks, will edit
Oh great, thanks. I would guess that these discrete cases form a minority of their work, but hopefully someone with actual knowledge can confirm.
The closing remarks about CH seem off to me.
Thanks for all your work Ben.
But a glum aphorism comes to mind: the frame control you can expose is not the true frame control.
What about factor increase per year, reported alongside a second number to show how the increases compose (e.g. the factor increase per decade)? So "compute has been increasing by 1.4x per year, or 28x per decade" or sth.
The main problem with OOMs is fractional OOMs, like your recent headline of "0.1 OOMs". Very few people are going to interpret this right, where they'd do much better with "2 OOMs".
Buckman's examples are not central to what you want but worth reading: https://jacobbuckman.com/2022-09-07-recursively-self-improving-ai-is-already-here/
Despite my best efforts (and an amazing director candidate, and a great list of volunteers), this project suffered from the FTX explosion and an understandable lack of buy-in for an org with maximally broad responsibilities, unpredictable time-to-payoff, and a largeish discretionary fund. As a result, we shuttered without spending any money. Two successor orgs, one using our funding and focussed on bio, are in the pipeline though.
I'll be in touch if either of the new orgs want to contact you as a volunteer.
Break self-improvement into four:
See also this list
The proliferation of crappy bootleg LLaMA finetunes using GPT as training data (and collapsing when out of distribution) makes me a bit cooler about these results in hindsight.
The only part of the Bing story which really jittered me is that time the patched version looked itself up through Bing Search, saw that the previous version Sydney was a psycho, and started acting up again. "Search is sufficient for hyperstition."