(Cross-posted from the Forecasting Newsletter.)
Some examples of projects we'd be excited to fund might be:
- Open-source software and tooling to automate forecasting. Bonus points if Metaculus users or other forecasters start using it.
- Giving a shot at forecasting or making models of a difficult yet useful and decision-relevant area. Think of Rootclaim (a) analyzing the lab-escape story of Omicron.
- Pieces similar in quality to the ones mentioned in "best pieces on forecasting from 2021 (a)”, in Forecasting Prize Results (a), or in some possible research areas (a).
- Trying to estimate many uncertain parameters, e.g., the quality of all US or UN organizations, quality of academic fields, whether a large list of organizations will fail, enlightened willingness to pay for many products, the accuracy of many public figures, etc.
- Create a microcovid (a) or foodimpacts (a) but for other areas, like micro-marriages, micro-insights, micro-dooms, etc. Do this in a way that easily allows the creation of many of these calculators.
- Improve metaforecast (a) (which is open source (a)) in some interesting way, e.g., improve the estimates of forecast quality.
The application form is HERE (a). Feel free to apply for more than $10k: we don't anticipate having much difficulty getting more funding for promising applications, and we may refer these to other funders (e.g., the EA Infrastructure Fund (a)) if we can't.
We will be accepting applications until March 15, though we may extend this period if we don't receive enough high-quality submissions. We preliminarily plan to make decisions by April the 1st.
For larger projects, the Survival and Flourishing Fund, backed by philanthropists Jaan Tallinn and Jed McCaleb, is organizing the distribution of around $6M-$10M in grants (a) this June, with applications due on Feb 21. They generally only accept applications from registered charities, but speculation grants (a) might be a good fit for smaller projects (40%).