Previously: Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts.

Our colleagues at Epoch recently asked us to update our AI timelines estimate for their upcoming literature review on TAI timelines. We met on 2023-01-21 to discuss our predictions about when advanced AI systems will arrive.

Forecasts:

Definition of AGI

We used the following definition to determine the “moment at which AGI is considered to have arrived,” building on this Metaculus question:

The moment that a system capable of passing the adversarial Turing test against a top-5%^[1] human who has access to experts on various topics is developed.

More concretely:

A Turing test is said to be “adversarial” if the human judges make a good-faith attempt to unmask the AI as an impostor, and the human confederates make a good-faith attempt to demonstrate that they are humans.

An AI is said to “pass” a Turing test if at least half of judges rated the AI as more human than at least third of the human confederates.

This definition of AGI is not unproblematic, e.g., it’s possible that AGI could be unmasked long after its economic value and capabilities are very high. We chose to use an imperfect definition and indicated to forecasters that they should interpret the definition not “as is” but “in spirit” to avoid annoying edge cases.

Individual forecasts

	P(AGI by 2030)	P(AGI by 2050)	P(AGI by 2100)	P(AGI by this year) = 10%	P(AGI by this year) = 50%	P(AGI by this year) = 90%
F1	0.39	0.75	0.78	2028	2034	N/A^[2]
F3	0.28	0.7	0.87	2027	2039	2120
F4	0.26	0.58	0.93	2025	2039	2088
F5	0.35	0.73	0.91	2025	2037	2075
F6	0.4	0.65	0.8	2025	2035	N/A^[3]
F7	0.33	0.65	0.8	2026	2037	2250
F8	0.2	0.5	0.7	2026	2050	2200
F9	0.23	0.44	0.67	2026	2060	2250

Aggregate

	P(AGI by 2030)^[4]	P(AGI by 2050)	P(AGI by 2100)	P(AGI by this year) = 10%	P(AGI by this year) = 50%	P(AGI by this year) = 90%
mean:	0.31	0.63	0.81	2026	2041	2164
stdev:	0.07	0.11	0.09	1.07	8.99	79.65

50% CI:	[0.26, 0.35]	[0.55, 0.70]	[0.74, 0.87]	[2025.3, 2026.7]	[2035, 2047]	[2110, 2218]
80% CI:	[0.21, 0.40]	[0.48, 0.77]	[0.69, 0.93]	[2024.6, 2027.4]	[2030, 2053]	[2062, 2266]
95% CI^[5]:	[0.16, 0.45]	[0.41, 0.84]	[0.62, 0.99]	[2023.9, 2028.1]	[2024, 2059]	[2008, 2320]

geomean:	0.30	0.62	0.80	2026.00	2041	2163
geo odds^[6]:	0.30	0.63	0.82

Epistemic status:

For Samotsvety track-record see: https://samotsvety.org/track-record/
- Note that this track record comes mostly from questions abo

...

JonathanMann

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